Summer is quickly approaching, and the weather is starting to warm up…well, almost everywhere. Do you know what else is warming up? You guessed it, the MLB trade markets. Believe it or not folks, the All-Star Game is right around the corner. The break may give most players a much-needed breather. For baseball’s GMs though, the All-Star Game serves more like a signal that the stretch run for trades is right around the bend.
Whether your team is a buyer or seller, or in some cases, both, the weeks leading up to the trade deadline can be as exciting as Spring Training. Who’s coming in? Who’s on the way out? Which prospects are added to bolster the system? It’ll all be answered in the coming weeks.
Today, we’ll look at a number of players who may have an upcoming appointment with their team travel coordinators. Of course, we’ll be doing this with an eye on advanced analytics. Does their performance to date suggest a good buy-low candidate? Sell high? Stay away? Let’s see what the numbers suggest.
We’ll start this week by going around the diamond to look at a few position players who may be on the move:
Matt Chapman – The Blue Jays entered the 2023 season with Championship aspirations. As of this writing, the hope of the Canadian nation is on the outside looking in. Should that continue, Matt Chapman may don a new jersey come August. In the last year of his contract, the veteran is having a fairly solid season overall, propped up by a very strong April.
A look at his current season metrics (top row) as compared to the ’22 numbers (bottom row) shows the mixed bag:
On the positive, the AVG is up, bolstered by a significant increase in BABIP. His xBA (.248) suggests a negative correction may be coming but not to the extreme of years past. When he makes contact, he’s hitting the ball hard, as indicated by the standout increases in Barrel % and HardHit%.
Although consistent, the 27% K% is still an issue and a slight shift to more ground balls is sapping his HR numbers a bit. Lastly, that last number, WAR, really stands out as a caution flag for his overall impact to a playoff contender.
Overall, I see Chapman being a good fit for a team that needs some extra pop off the bench or in the DH position. Would the Angels pay the 2-month rental cost if Anthony Rendon continues to visit the IL? Are the Mariners ready to end the Eugenio Suarez experiment? Marlins? Diamondbacks? There should be many suitors for Chapman’s services.
Starling Marte – Another veteran on an underachieving team, Starling Marte may be one of the first casualties of the failed Mets season. Looking at his basic numbers, Marte is having a poor season. After logging 265 PA this season, over halfway to his ’22 total, his HR total is down more than 80%, R down 60%, and RBI down 70%. Like many perennial SB threats, Marte is taking advantage of the new rules and has already surpassed his ’22 SB numbers. Is it all doom and gloom? Let’s look a little deeper:
These numbers tell a little different story for Starling Marte. His BB% and K% are both trending in the right direction. The AVG and OBP are clearly hampered by the lower BABIP and drop in LD%. The slight drop in Barrel% is not all that concerning to me. Instead, I’m more optimistic of a positive correction, especially in the power categories, with the visible jump in HardHit%.
Starling Marte stands out as a STRONG BUY in the fantasy world if he’s traded out of New York. The Brewers, Dodgers, and Twins look to be the best fits to me.
Adam Frazier – Adam Frazier has been a relatively solid middle infielder for the Birds this season. He is also blocking one of their top prospects, Jordan Westburg, who is currently slashing .290/.369/.565 with 17 HRs and 6 SBs at AAA Norfolk. Before you jump on me for suggesting the AL Wildcard leaders could be a seller at the deadline, let’s not forget only a year ago the contending Orioles traded their cornerstone offensive player and dominant closer. We all know Adam Frazier is neither.
That said, he’s chipped in 8 HRs in 71 games, equal to the HR total for ’21 and ’22 combined (300+ games), and he’s on track to set a career high RBI total. There is some optimism in the underlying metrics as well.
The AVG and BABIP may be down as compared to last season but his xBA (.275) offers some optimism. Additionally, his Barrel% is the highest of his career and the uptick in LD% and FB% provides even more optimism. He could easily remain in Baltimore and continue to provide a solid option for the Birds. He could just as easily be moved to clear a path for another exciting prospect.
Barring an injury somewhere, I don’t see an obvious trade partner for Frazier, although a trio of West Coast teams (SF, LAD, & SEA) could easily justify adding another infielder.
Ryan McMahon – Around this time each year, we start to hear Ryan McMahon’s name brought up in trade rumors. Perhaps this is finally the year. Then again, we’re talking about the Rockies.
With 12 HRs, 42 R, and 41 RBIs to date, McMahon is on track to meet or exceed his 3-year averages in each. Also, his current average, hovering around .270, is a career best. I know, I hear you… “but it’s Coors field.” Sure, his home OPS (.909) is outpacing the road OPS (.803) but I counter with the fact that his 12 HRs are spread evenly between home and away games. The “Coors Effect” is certainly in play but shouldn’t be a significant concern for potential buyers. Do the underlying numbers agree?
There is some movement between ’23 numbers (top row) and ’22 numbers (bottom row). We can point to both good (BABIP, SLG, LD%, Barrel%, & HardHit%) and not-so-good (K% & WAR). Overall, I see more here to like than to dislike.
If I’m a GM and need to add a 2B/3B to plug a hole, one of my very first calls is to the Rockies. I suspect I won’t be alone with many of the contenders doing the same.
Besides these 4 players we took a closer look at, here are other names I see as trade options:
- Jeimer Candelario
- Brendan Donovan
- Michael Conforto
- Joey Meneses
- Mauricio Dubon
Is your favorite team a buyer or seller? Who do you see moving at the deadline? Share your thoughts in the chat below.
Next week, I’ll explore some of the pitchers I suspect will be changing zip codes this summer. That one will be a little harder to predict though, since every contender is going to be in the market for pitching depth, both starters and relievers. The better pitchers will go at a premium for sure. We’ll use our tools to identify who those premium buys/sells will be.
Once again, thanks for traveling with me on this ride through the wonderful world of baseball analytics. As I always say, keep sifting through the number. That’s where you find the gems!
Follow me on Twitter: @Derek_Favret.
Until next time, my friends!
