We. Are. Back! Round 2 of my Ambulance Chasers takeover is underway as Grey has not halted access to WordPress (yet). Last week’s piece covered injured players I am actively fading this season which you can find here.
My thought process is somewhat simple on buying into “bounce-backs” or players on the upward swing post-injury. If someone talented had a nagging issue throughout the season, I excuse them with a mulligan. I cannot blame a dude for tearing his oblique in April and struggling to hit a 100MPH baseball come July. These players are human and require proper routine/mechanics which can be thrown off midseason.
However, if a player had significant surgery in the offseason like an ACL or labrum repair, it is often best to fade them for the upcoming season and buy back in the following year. The gamble on getting back to 100% while not overcompensating elsewhere is far too risky for my tastes, especially in the earlier rounds (cough, Ronald Acuna Jr, cough).
Recently Injured Players I Am TARGETING for 2025
Oneil Cruz (SS, PIT), leg: Oneil Cruz’s 2023 season was cut short in early April by an ankle fracture during a collision on the bases. Cruz was reported to have a four-month recovery timeline but missed the rest of that season and was focused on 2024. Any time a player’s season is cut short by an injury that significant with a delayed return on top, there is cause for concern. Cruz nearly played a full season last year but slashed just .259/.324/.449 with 21 HR and 22 SB.
A 20/20 season is not “disappointing” but in the case of a young athlete like Cruz with sky-high expectations, they are underwhelming. Luckily, Cruz is entering 2025 two full seasons removed from the fracture and potentially more comfortable on the recovered leg. We can set our sights on a 30/30 season from the young, star shortstop with a chance for more if he obliges our fantasy teams.
Riley Greene (OF, DET), elbow: Riley Greene underwent Tommy John Surgery in September 2023 and was ready for the start of 2024. Greene grew as a hitter last season with an uptick in power and plate discipline. His average dipped but we can forgive that minor issue.
2023 slash-line: .288/.349/.447
2024 slash-line: .262/.348/.479
Greene is only 24 with a special mix of contact and power. He could flirt with a .300 AVG and .500 SLG while producing more runs and RBI in his upcoming prime. The Detroit Tigers are a young, improving team in 2025 with Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows, Colt Keith, and Jace Jung alongside Greene. Offseason addition Gleyber Torres should provide stability and hey, maybe *this* is the year Spencer Torkelson figures it out! (Unlikely, I know)
Vinnie Pasquantino (1B, KC), shoulder: Vinnie Pasquantino, much like Riley Greene, had a solid, but unspectacular year after offseason surgery. While Pasquantino’s average and slugging percentage improved from 2023, his plate discipline dipped. Also similarly to Greene, Pasquantino’s expected stats dropped by multiple points from 2023 to 2024.
2023 Greene xwOBA: .365
2024 Greene xwOBA: .353
2023 Pasquantino xwOBA: .350
2024 Pasquantino xwOBA: .331
The hope is for both of these young, talented hitters to perform at full strength in 2025. Pasquantino slashed .295/.383/.450 in his rookie season with an xwOBA of .374. If he can perform similarly to that level we may have a fringe-elite fantasy hitter after pick 100.
Surgery recovery is different for every athlete. Some never return to form while most, typically, need to be a full year/season removed from the injury. Only an alien such as Shohei Ohtani can have surgery and somehow IMPROVE. Long story short, do not chase outlier outcomes unless they are the best player in baseball (please tell this to 2024 Kev).
Josh Lowe (OF, TB), oblique: Josh Lowe suffered an oblique injury in March, returned in early May, and was placed back on the IL in late May. Lowe played a majority of the season despite other nagging injuries but was not himself. His slash-line dropped from .292/.335/.500 in 2023 to .241/.302/.391 in 2024. Lowe’s strikeout rate also jumped from 24.8% to 31.8%. The only stat that remained unchanged was Lowe’s stolen base rate.
Lowe (along with the entire Rays’ offense) has the benefit of playing in a new stadium this season. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa has similar dimensions to Yankee Stadium. Most importantly, a short right-field porch. Lowe is not a pull-heavy hitter but as a lefty, there should be a considerable home-park boost.
The former first-round pick is a potential fantasy goldmine if fully healthy (fingers crossed after a full offseason). He is one of the few in this league who can hit 20+ HR and steal 30+ bases with a high average. That is worth chasing at his current ADP past pick 150.
Jasson Dominguez (OF, NYY), elbow: Speaking of aliens, this may be The Martian’s year. Jasson Dominguez’s September 2023 call-up was cut short but not forgotten thanks to four home runs in eight games. Luckily, Tommy John is much more kind to hitters than pitchers. Dominguez displayed that in triple-A last season slashing .309/.368/.480. Unfortunately, this success did not transfer to the MLB where he posted two HR in 18 games with a .179 average.
Regardless, Dominguez (Happy Birthday!!) just turned 22 years old and is a full season removed from surgery. The Yankees are going to rely on him due to Juan Soto’s departure and provide opportunities to shine in one of the league’s best offenses. If he is half of the prospect his numbers and hype project, this is a fantasy steal around his current ADP past pick 120.
Nick Lodolo (SP, CIN), leg: They cannot all be hitters, right? Nick Lodolo is one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball since 2023. Not only has he underperformed peripheral stats, but he broke his leg! Lodolo suffered a stress fracture to his left tibia (plant leg) in 2023. 11 months later during Spring Training, Lodolo claimed to still “feel” his injury. He was re-scanned and delayed to start the season.
Nevertheless, Lodolo started 21 games. He posted a 4.76 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with a 17.2% K-BB but his SIERA and xFIP both remained below 4.00 (good). Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati is one of the tougher parks to pitch in but the former seventh-overall pick could succeed similarly to Hunter Greene in 2024. Lodolo should be healthy entering 2025 and ready to put together his first full productive season.
