You’re only as good as the information you have. This can apply to anything in life, but is particularly true when it comes to studying up on prospects for fantasy. Or prospecting, if you will. Players are constantly evolving, particularly those in the minors, and it’s important to keep up with the latest scouting reports, videos, and statistics. One area that’s heavily overlooked with prospects is batted ball profile. The numbers are tough to find, but there’s some intriguing options in the dark corners of the Internet. Yours truly has scoured those dark corners. Actually J-FOH scoured these corners, introduced them to me, and here we are. Today is a very special day. Why? Well, because I’m doing my very best on this fine Sunday to impersonate one Big Magoo. While I certainty can’t do our resident number savant justice; I’ll use his words as a guideline, while we take a look at the batted ball profiles for some of the top players in minor league ball this season. Including some recent graduates like Aaron Judge, Alex Bregman, and Andrew Benintendi.
Let’s begin by reviewing what Magoo said way back in March when he did his pre-season primer on what to look for in hitters.
“Batted Ball Profile: I look at this to make sure that the sluggers are hitting the ball in the air and that the speedsters aren’t trying to do so (looking at you Billy Hamilton). Line drives (LD) are good for everyone, while infield flyballs (IFFB) are bad for everyone. I like to keep an eye on the hard contact rate (Hard%) as well. The consistently good hitters usually keep that number above 30%. An LD% in the low-mid 20s with an IFFB% in the low single digits is a good combo to look for.” – Big Magoo March 16′
While I don’t have data on hard%, med%, or soft%, I do have spray charts and batted ball data (FB%, GB%, LD%, and Popup%). So we’ll take a look at each hitters batted ball percentages to see what kind of contact they’re making. We’ll couple this with spray charts, to get a glimpse at whether they’re pull happy, or spraying the ball to all fields, which should allow us to pinpoint each spec’s profile. Have I gone crosseyed? Perhaps, five minutes in Magoo’s brain and I’m already confused. Being smart is hard work when you’re dim.
All batted ball data and spray charts via MLBFarm.com.
The Graduates
Alex Bregman, Astros SS/3B:
Batted Ball Profile: 33.9% FB, 33.64% GB, 20.6% LD, 11.8% Popup
Good to see he has that desired mid to low 20’s LD%, but his popups are a bit high. Most of his homers are pulled to right but he does show the ability to spray to all fields, and to his credit has a few oppo-taco homers.
Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox OF:
Batted Ball Profile: 33.24% FB, 34.3% GB, 23.1% LD, 9.22% Popup
Benintendi posses a nice LD% and shows the ability to hit to all fields. Though most of his power is to his pull side. If he can continue to go to the opposite field, particularly at Fenway, it should aid in some of his home run and doubles numbers.
Aaron Judge, Yankees OF:
Batted Ball Profile: 32.3% FB, 33.4% GB, 24.5% LD, 9.73% Popup
The latest big time callup, made quite the splash yesterday in his debut going 2 for 4 and slamming a 440 foot homer. As we can see by his Bb profile Judge hits the ball hard. He’s also a power hitter that hits fly balls,while maintaining his line drive rate at nearly 25%. When you remove his popups in the outfield (about 30%) his IFFB checks out in the mid to low single digits. The most impressive thing about Judge’s spray chart is the power to all fields. He’s nearly equal to right and left, with a majority of his homers leaving the middle of the park. Judge checks all the boxes. Unlike Bregman and Benintendi, Judge strikes out at a high ( 24%+) clip.
The Top Prospects
Yoan Moncada, Red Sox 2B:
Batted Ball Profile: 24% FB, 45.3% GB, 27.1% LD, 2.6% Popup
Moncada is our first switch hitter, and also an example of a speedy player with groundball tendencies. Though labeling him a ground ball hitter is just wrong; with a 27% line drive rate he’s making solid contact on a regular basis. He’s also rarely making weak contact, as his popup rate is nearly invisible at 2.6%. The 19.4% HR/FB is high, but it’s not unreasonable either. Moncada has enough speed to bunt for hits, and beat out a few of his groundballs so the high number of grounders is alarming, but not a killer. His power is to all fields, though it’s almost entirely when hitting left handed. 12 of his 13 homers have come from the left side.
Clint Frazier, Yankees OF:
Batted Ball Profile: 23% FB, 45.3% GB, 23.1% LD, 7.6% Popup
The thing that stands out the most is how frequently Frazier goes the other way. He hits the ball to right field almost as frequently as he does to his pull side. Though most of his power is to left, it’s not totally uneven either. Much like Moncada’s, his groundball rate is higher than you’d like to see, but he posses enough speed, and a high enough line drive rate that it’s not a killer. He’s another player with a IFFB% in the low single digits.
Nick Williams, Phillies OF:
Batted Ball Profile: 28% FB, 46.4% GB, 22.2% LD, 2.7% Popup
A few things jump out to me about Williams, he sprays the ball to all fields with pretty even distribution, and hot zones all over the field. He also rarely popups up. His groundball rate is higher than you like to see, though his line drives are a healthy 22.2%. With Williams lack of plate discipline and groundball tendencies, he worries me as an owner.
J.P. Crawford, Phillies SS:
Batted Ball Profile: 25% FB, 41.2% GB, 20.6% LD, 13.2% Popup
Lots of groundballs, lots of infield popups, though his line drive rate is just within target levels. Much of Crawford’s billing is his ability to get on base and set the table. He has the ability to bunt for hits, and leg out grounders. Almost all of his power is to his pull side.
Rhys Hoskins, Phillies 1B:
Batted Ball Profile: 43.3% FB, 32.2% GB, 17.4 LD, 6.9% Popup
According to his spray chart and batted ball profile, Hoskins is your prototypical righthanded power hitter. Pulling the ball to leftfield and hitting mostly flyballs. His line drive rate is a little lower than desired, but he’s an extreme fly ball hitter and some of his best hit balls are flys. His 23.4% HR/FB isn’t totally out of whack making his 2016 power slightly more believable than Dylan Cozens…….
Dylan Cozens, Phillies OF:
Batted Ball Profile: 30.8% FB, 41% GB, 25% LD, 2.8% Popup
I have to admit I came into this exercise looking for every reason to once again knock down Cozens, but after looking at the data I can’t. The home/road splits are still huge, and his 37.2 HR/FB number is also insanely unsustainable, and certainly fair to call Reading aided. What is impressive however is the 25% line drive rate, and the 5 infield flies he’s had in 425 at bats.
Derek Fisher, Astros OF:
Batted Ball Profile: 18.6% FB, 56.5% GB, 20.5% LD, 4.26% Popup
Fisher is a groundball hitter that rarely makes weak contact. When reviewing his spray charts it’s obvious that when he gets a hold of a ball he really gets a hold of it. Most of his homers are to center or opposite field jobs. For someone with the homer totals he has, it’s surprising just how many groundballs Fisher hits. His HR/FB is even higher than Cozens at a bloated 37.5%. Luckily Fisher has the speed to leg out many of his groundballs.
Eloy Jimenez, Cubs OF:
Batted Ball Profile: 29.3% FB, 42.5% GB, 21.1% LD, and 6.94% Popup
It’s obvious that the young Cubs slugging prospect is pull happy, particularly for power, so far in his young career. He makes solid contact more often than not, and doesn’t popup much.
Travis Demeritte, Braves 2B:
Batted Ball Profile: 30.2% FB, 36.9% GB, 21.8% LD, 11.1% Popup
The young slugging 2nd baseman’s profile checks out with a fairly even split between flyballs and grounders, and a near 22% line drive rate. He also shows power to all fields not just his pull side. As has been stated many times, his numbers pre-trade were High Desert aided, but that’s not to say Demeritte doesn’t have substantial power, all you need to do is watch him hit to know. Though there are plenty of red flags too; besides the high K rate, his Popup% of 11.1 is pretty high.
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