The more I live life, the more I begin to see and understand the dualistic nature of the universe. If there was no gravity, the Drop of Doom at Six Flags would just be a hair follicle on the Earth’s surface. Any kind of market would be unable to function without two divergent thoughts, resulting in a buyer and a seller. A buyer cannot buy without anyone willing to sell. Nothing goes straight up. Conversely, nothing goes straight down. There are ebbs and flows to most things in life. This seamlessly brings me to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. of the Arizona Diamondbacks. His season up to date has been a tale of two halves within a half of a season. He was amazing for the first two months but has been the exact opposite the last two months. Can this Lourdes be our savior come money time?
Gurriel is 29 years old, 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, and bats from the right side.
In 2016, he signed with the Toronto Blue Jays after defecting from Cuba. He spent his entire professional career there until he was traded to the Diamondbacks prior to this season.
Right away, he showed the ability to put bat to ball, as the strikeout rate was sub-20%. The walk rate was often sub-5% and the power developed after a few years. He quickly rose through the minor league system and made his MLB debut in 2018. In 263 plate appearances, the slash was .281/.309/.446 with a .165 ISO, 3.4% walk rate, and 22.4% strikeout rate.
In four subsequent seasons with the Blue Jays, Gurriel never wowed but was fairly consistent. You knew what you were getting: around a 6% walk rate, 20% strikeout rate, .190 ISO, and .280 batting average. He had at least 20 home runs twice. Last season, though, the ISO was only .108 and the team decided to move on.
So far in 2023 with Arizona, the slash is .249/.297/.455 with a 5.4% walk rate, 16.4% strikeout rate, and .205 ISO. As mentioned above, though, it’s been a tale of two halves.
For the first two months of the season, the slash was .309/.357/.546 with a 6.2% walk rate, 15.2% strikeout rate, and .237 ISO. In June and July, the slash is .183/.227/.354 with a 4.3% walk rate, 17.3% strikeout rate, and .171 ISO. Let’s dig in to see if there’s any hope for a return to “normalcy.”
First things first, the BABIP over the last two months has been .184, so he has been unlucky.
Looking at the Statcast data, the average exit velocity has actually been higher recently, as well as the maxEV. The barrel rate is higher and so is the launch angle.
The batted ball data shows that he’s hitting 10% fewer line drives with a 4% increase in ground balls. The infield fly ball rate has also increased by 5%. The approach has relatively remained the same, as he pulls the ball only 40% of the time. The hard hit rate has increased 2%.
Hmmmm, so far it’s looking like bad luck.
Looking at how pitchers are attacking him, the only noticeable difference is the decrease slider usage. In the first two months of the season, Gurriel was seeing sliders 28% of the time. That number has been 21% over the last two months.
The plate discipline numbers show that he’s swinging at more pitches and chasing outside the zone a tick more. The swinging strike rate hasn’t changed and is a paltry 6.8%. That places him in the top 25. The contact rates are all excellent – 94.1% in the zone and 86.7% in general. Gurriel is top 10 for contact rate in the zone on the season and top 15 for contact rate in general.
I don’t see anything out of the ordinary for Gurriel. He’s making contact and hitting the ball hard. It seems that he’s just getting unlucky.
Gurriel bats either third or fifth for a Diamondbacks team that is 10th in runs scored and ninth in OPS. Steamer has him down for a .277/.321/.446 slash the rest of the way with a 17.5% strikeout rate and .174 ISO. Gurriel won’t help in the stolen base department, but he should hit a handful of home runs, drive in runs and provide some batting average help down the stretch.
This Lourdes likely won’t be a savior but could be an apostle on your way to the Promised Land.
