Hey-o, Razzball nation! It’s another installment of mid-week MarmosDad bringing you the news and notes in the world of steals! We’re officially into the second week of May so those small sample sizes are starting to get a bit bigger, and the numbers are starting to fall into pockets that we can trust a bit more than we did in early April. We obviously want at least another month of statistics to analyze as far as true outcomes/in-season success (or failure) is concerned, but that doesn’t mean we can’t have a peek at our leaderboards and put together a few profiles along the way.
As far as early season success is concerned, the Chicago Cubs have had a bit of good with the bad. Sitting at a pretty mediocre 17-18 record, (as of yesterday afternoon), the Cubs opted to inject a bit of a rookie boost into their lineup with the call-ups of Matt Mervis and Christopher Morel this week.
I don’t want to completely rehash Grey’s lede from his Tuesday daily news and notes, but I did have Morel lined up to profile as a call-up (call back?) when we got the news on Sunday. It was a recall filled with almost as much excitement as we had in the mid-90’s when someone, ironically, mentioned mushrooms back then too. In fact, there was so much excitement that even the opposing players couldn’t contain themselves!
Christopher Morel & Willson Contreras ???
(?: @WatchMarquee) pic.twitter.com/HgjEZDo7cg
— Cubs Zone (@CubsZone) May 8, 2023
Our Fantasy Master Lothario pointed out that Morel landed in the top 130 on the player rater at the end of last season. That alone should be enough to reinforce that (A) speed and power combos always fuel value, despite any potential batting average deficiencies, (B) Morel has ticked off the ‘experience’ box that I spoke about in pre-season steals assessments so the ability to do this on the big stage isn’t in question, and, well … there is no C.
Looking at Christopher Morel’s scouting grades makes for a pretty promising exercise too. The 50 grade fielding scores should be more than enough to give him an edge for playing time. That 60 grade raw power points to some serious potential boomstick damage. The real kicker for SAGNOF purposes, though, is that sweet above average 60 grade speed.
Over his minor league years, Morel maxed out at 23 SB in 2017 rookie ball. This year’s minor league numbers read like a line from an MLB The Show video game : 115 AB, 11 HR, 4 SB, 1.155 OPS. Whoa.
Again, as Grey mentioned, the timely Nico Hoerner injury should open the door for more playing time for Morel. Despite the worries of some Cubs fans, this should create a path to everyday ABs for Morel at least until we know the severity of Hoerner’s hamstring pull. I mean, he’s not going to lose time to Nick Madrigal is he? David Ross will make the right decision here…right?!
Ross on how Morel will be used: "I don't know that there's this big path for everyday at-bats. The ability to get Velázquez back (to AAA) & not let him sit on the bench & some ability to mix Mo in time to time is probably going to be more of a role than just everyday at-bats."
— Meghan Montemurro (@M_Montemurro) May 8, 2023
(For the record, Morel started last night’s game at 2B and batted 8th while Madrigal manned 3B and led off).
The assumption is that with the recent promotions of Mervis and Morel, the Cubs are signaling that they’re ready for the next wave of kids to show what they can do in the big leagues. David Ross ultimately holds the keys to the company (Cub-pany?) car, but calling these guys up and not running them out there every day looks like a definite path to … More-Ls.
Speaking of steals…and of course we are…here are the team leaders up to, but not including Tuesday night’s games…
| TEAM | GAMES PLAYED | AT-BATS | STOLEN BASES | CAUGHT STEALING |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | 36 | 1187 | 48 | 13 |
| Athletics | 36 | 1206 | 39 | 7 |
| Orioles | 35 | 1184 | 37 | 7 |
| Guardians | 35 | 1172 | 37 | 7 |
| Cubs | 35 | 1214 | 34 | 10 |
| Rays | 36 | 1223 | 33 | 12 |
| Diamondbacks | 35 | 1188 | 30 | 7 |
| Marlins | 36 | 1201 | 29 | 7 |
| Yankees | 36 | 1173 | 29 | 10 |
| Braves | 35 | 1190 | 26 | 4 |
A quick check in on some of the teams from our chart…
Oakland A’s
- Kind of running parallel to the Ji Hwan Bae love that I spoke to last week, I think I’m equally fixed atop the Esteury Ruiz riverboat of reverence as well. With every SB this guy snags, my pre-season sleeper pick feels a lot less like a longshot. He nabbed 6 SB since last Wednesday and increased his total from 11 to 17.
- Ruiz’s totals obviously inflate the team’s numbers here as the next top SB guys in the A’s list are a who’s who of less-than-desirable players. Connor Capel (4 SB) was optioned last Wednesday, Jace Peterson (4) is an AL only bat at best, and Tyler Wade (4) was optioned two days before Capel. Ramon Laureano is back, though! (well…maybe..he left Monday’s game with a concussion and wasn’t in Tuesday’s lineup but is yet to hit the concussion IL, so watch the lineup?) He has 3.
Cleveland Guardians
Insult to injury https://t.co/K70HQbnml8
— Razzball (@Razzball) May 8, 2023
- Before we get to the nitty and the gritty of the Cleveland Guardians SBs, I think the clip here of Akil Baddoo’s caught stealing is a bit of a metaphor for what Tigers fans can expect this year. Not only does Baddoo take the throw in the ‘area formerly known to be occupied by the jock’, but Gimenez catching the deflection and managing to tag him out immediately after the ricochet is pretty wild.
- Speaking of nuts, (badum-tss), the Guardians have seven players with at least 2 SB on the year. After finishing 2022 with the third-highest SB total for teams, (tied at 1.06 per game with Baltimore), I think it’s safe to assume that the team philosophy of “let them run” is alive and well this year.
- The Guardians leaderboard has a couple of outfielders at the top with 8 SB each – Steven Kwan and Myles Straw. Former Mets Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez have 6 apiece.
Chicago Cubs
- As of right now, the leader for the Cubs is Nico Hoerner with 12 SB in 35 GP. As I alluded to earlier though, depending on the severity of his hamstring injury he may be stuck at that dozen for a while.
- The silver medalist of the Cubs’ in-house SB race is none other than new acquisition Cody Bellinger. I had him slated in for a profile this week, but didn’t want to overdo it with both him and Morel. Bellinger’s 9 SB on the year sets him up to obliterate his previous best of 19 in 2019. With 3 SB in two games over the weekend, he’s a definite steals target in trade offers.
For the profiles this week, I’ll reference the Hittertron SB$ values too (May 9 – May 15).
Just a reminder that you can have full access to all of this, along with Streamonator and Relievonator (and more) with our 2023 Razzball Fantasy Baseball Subscriptions.
Maikel Garcia – K.C. – SS/3B – (25th ranked SB$ this week on Hittertron)
This one was a hot-button add in a lot of the NFBC leagues this week after his promotion on May 2. He went for a fairly modest $61 (out of $1000) in our TGFBI league’s FAAB this past Sunday.
There is a lot to like about Garcia’s situation and numbers if you want to take a closer look.
First off, Garcia is 23 years old and has played in 6 seasons of professional ball before his call-up last week. Throughout those years, he topped out at 39 SB (AA/AAA) in 2022 after stealing 31 over A/A+ in 2021.
The scouting scores are good for speed, but not too flattering in other areas. The 50 speed score is considered average, which is tough to understand for a kid that stole 70 total bases in the minors over the last two years.
The power is not there, as evidenced by a below average 30/35 grade power tool (in game and raw power). In 100+ games for each of the last two seasons, Garcia hit 4 HR and 11 HR respectively.
As you’d expect, Garcia’s next best score is his hit tool. The 55 grade ranks as above average and helps explain why his batting average over the last two years has been between .274 and .313 in any of his minor league stops.
The fielding grades out at a 60 too, so defense shouldn’t be an issue. Pair that with the fact that Nicky Lopez is out for “a couple weeks” with an appendectomy and the playing time should be there. (As a side note, apparently, the Kansas City doctors must specialize in appendectomies much more than the White Sox training staff does…we’re looking at you, and your 6 week recovery window, Eloy.)
For right now, Garcia looks like an only-league add. But with this skill set and multi-eligibility, I’d be putting him on a watch list for mixed leagues or even taking a flier now if I needed speed and/or had an infielder hit the IL on my fantasy team.
Enmanuel Valdez – BOS – 2B – (288th ranked SB$ on Hittertron this week)
Wait! Before you start cackling with laughter at the SB$ ranking for the week, hear me out!
Valdez was recalled on April 25, so he’s not exactly a fresh face here. With the Christian Arroyo injury being worse than expected, Valdez should at least get some extended playing time until Adalberto Mondesi…um…returns from…uh…his injury…ok…seriously…you can stop laughing now.
The similarities to Maikel Garcia don’t stop there, though. Besides benefiting from an injury in front of him and seeing a clearer path to playing time, Valdez also has a good chunk of minor league experience (6 years) under his belt. At 24 years old, Valdez falls into our ideal age group for those looking for impact potential.
The differences are a bit of a flip-flop to Garcia as far as the scouting scores go. Where Garcia excelled in the speed and fielding scores, Valdez takes a bit of a hit. His speed grades out as a 30 and the fielding is a 45. The power is much better with Valdez, though, as he rates as a 55 grade in game and raw power tool. The hit tool is a respectable 45 as well.
Why would I recommend a 30-grade speed guy in a SAGNOF post? That’s a good question on the surface. But the second baseman has 3 SB in May to go along with a very strong .324 average (for those of you in leagues that count AVG). He has hit safely in 8 of 10 games since his recall and is running against Sean Murphy in Atlanta (.261 CS%), a guy whose team doesn’t want him catching anymore (Willson Contreras), and Cal Raleigh (exact same .261 CS% as Murphy).
Is he going to win you a stolen base title? No. Is he a strong hitter that looks to have playing time secured at least until Arroyo’s hamstring is healed or Mondesi’s ACL injury comeback is complete? Yes. If I were running the Red Sox, I’d think the guy that was the main return in the Christian Vazquez trade is worth a pretty extended look at the MLB level if only to see if that trade deadline deal from 2022 was worth it.
Before I leave for the week, here are our top 10 SB leaders (individual and, again, as of Tuesday afternoon). I’ll try to keep the chart handy for you each week just to use as a reference point if you find that it helps.
| NAME | TEAM | STOLEN BASES | CAUGHT STEALING | ON-BASE PERCENTAGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteury Ruiz | Athletics | 17 | 2 | .340 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | Braves | 15 | 2 | .431 |
| Ji Hwan Bae | Pirates | 14 | 2 | .300 |
| Nico Hoerner | Cubs | 12 | 2 | .348 |
| Jorge Mateo | Orioles | 12 | 2 | .349 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Marlins | 11 | 2 | .277 |
| Cedric Mullins | Orioles | 11 | 0 | .356 |
| Anthony Volpe | Yankees | 11 | 0 | .307 |
| Corbin Carroll | Diamondbacks | 10 | 2 | .368 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Royals | 10 | 2 | .279 |
That’s all for this week! If you have any ideas of players that you want a deeper look at, drop them in the comments. As always, if you have any questions or thoughts, you can always catch me here or @MarmosDad on Twitter. Good luck with your SAGNOF plays this week!
