“Drafting players returning from injury isn’t a great idea, until it is.” — Some Guy With a -1,050% ROI.
Over the past few years, we’ve been watching starting pitchers throw fewer and fewer innings every year [insert citation to every article I’ve written since 2019]. Part of that has to do with luminary pitchers getting injured and, for whatever reason, not stepping back on the field for what seems like a metric decade. Wait, a decade is already metric. But years aren’t metric…wait, am I in the New Matrix or the Old Matrix? ENYWHEY. “Don’t draft injured players” is something touts say every year and then we ogle Shane Bieber as a top 10 starter. So, what are we doing about players coming back from injury? This question matters more this year than in previous years because — as you’ll see below — there are a metric crap ton of starters who were injured last year that are getting drafted like they’re gonna throw for 600IP. Let’s jump in and see what the market is already doing about some notable players, and we’ll think about how we might want to manage these guys in our drafts.
Jacob deGrom: Is it bad he’s the only Mets player I can name other than Mookie Wilson? Or is it Mookie Blaylock? Nah, it was Cookie Carrasco, sorry. ENYWEHY. DeGrom made only 15 starts last year (and what a 15!) but he left games with shoulder, elbow, and forearm problems. I mean, that’s the TJ Trifecta warning right there. Despite the Mets trainers insisting deGrom was fine, JdG didn’t pitch in an MLB game after July 7, 2021, which isn’t your usual long rest. Despite deGrom’s notable arm issues, fantasy managers are drafting him at the end of round 2 right now on NFBC. Those “high-stakes” type of players are probably a bit more bullish on deGrom because if he shows up healthy and pitches a full season, he’ll be so good that the universe will break out in peace and harmony. For many “low-stakes” drafters who are taking deGrom at pick 24, you’re taking a pitcher with a worrying litany of injuries rather than your second bat. If I’m putting on my “standard league” hat, I’m fine drafting deGrom in the 3rd and crossing my fingers. That said, I’m also the devil-may-care writer who was brave enough to say “Robbie Ray Top 50 SP” in 2021. I eat risk for breakfast because if you’re not first, you’re last. Generally speaking though, I’m staying away from deGrom unless he’s falling into the 4th round, which is more likely to happen in “normie” drafts where pitchers aren’t coveted like the Ark of the Covenant. Because of his high draft value and concerning array of injuries that shut him down in 2021, deGrom is easily the highest-risk/highest reward player on this list, and whether you draft him is entirely up to you.
Shane Bieber: I mean, misery loves company, and NFBC drafters are taking Bieber right after deGrom in an average draft. Bieber made it through 16 games last year, although 2 of those were 3IP stints at the end of the year. Biebs had long been saying that he was feeling well enough to re-appear in August 2021, but the future Guardians were in tank mode and Bieber is under team control until 2024. You wonder why players are asking for an adjustment to the CBA? Because Shane Freaking Bieber won’t be a free agent until President Henry Winkler is in his second year in office (that’s 2025 for all of you poli sci majors). Bieber will likely be a safer pitcher than deGrom for 2022 because we know he was healthy to finish the year and was likely limited on the field due to service time manipulation and draft pick reasons. Isn’t baseball wonderful? I’m still not a fan of Bieber’s ADP of 30th overall, but if you’re in a draft where he’s slipping into the later 30s or 40s, I’m fine with him being your SP1 at that cost.
Chris Sale: Currently going at pick 54 and entering his second year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Sale took his time returning to MLB last year and made an effective 9 starts. Also, Sale is younger than deGrom so take that for what it’s worth. At current ADP, I’d be happier grabbing a bunch of bats and letting Sale be my SP1 instead of taking Bieber at cost, but that’s me and I see plenty of value in late-round pitchers where others don’t. With Sale under contract until 2024, I would be surprised to see Sale go much beyond 160-170IP this year. The Sox have plenty of fill-in arms that they can burn through while saving Sale for the 2022 playoffs or future seasons, and there’s no reason to give him a heavy workload this year. That said, Carlos Rodon finished as SP10 in 2021 with 130 IP, so…yahtzee!
Jack Flaherty: Pretty soon Bill James is gonna name an advanced stat after Jack Flaherty. I mean, is Flaherty the best pitcher in the league or the worst? Is he a 3.22 ERA or a 4.92 xERA? Let’s put that in perspective: over 100 IP, a 3.22 ERA means the pitcher allowed about 36 runs. That’s pretty nice! A 4.92 xERA means that our best MLB statisticians believe that Flaherty should have allowed 55 runs across that same 100 IP. Let’s keep doing math! Statistics say that Flaherty should have allowed 50% more runs than he did in 2021. Yeesh. Flaherty spent much of 2021 injured after swinging a bat, probably at a pitch with a 40% SwSt rate or something nerdy like that. He spent the bulk of the second half of 2021 recovering from that injury and ultimately returned in August and September but could only manage two starts before shuffling between the IL and the bullpen. Sounds promising, right? And y’all know that Flaherty is being drafted 70th overall, right? [warning sirens] It’s this kind of “but what if he’s healthy for a whole year” mentality that keeps Byron Buxton relevant. I’m super happy if Flaherty returns value — he’s only 26 and has a bright future ahead of him in MLB –but he’s been injured for the better part of the past two years, and a 70th overall draft position is awfully bold for a starter who has thrown just a handful more innings than Liam Hendriks since 2020.
Carlos Carrasco: I feel like I’m skipping a lot of players… but y’all know I’m happy to find value late in the draft and I think Carrasco fits the bill. Cookie had a rough run with the Mets trainers and finished 2021 with 12 starts and 58 IP (comparable but just a bit behind Jack Flaherty for a full-season total) and yet CC (not Sabathia) is going at ADP 300 overall. Am I hallucinating or am I just watching Twin Peaks? Carrasco had better advanced stats than Jack Flaherty in 2021 as well. What would you rather do: draft Jack Flaherty in round 6 or Carlos Carrasco in round [does the math] 30-something? This is a real question — let me know what you’re thinking down below, because I’m just backward talking.
Noah Syndergaard: Gets a new start on the Angels after recovering from Tommy John surgery. Again, Mets trainers. Thor is going at pick 210 right now, which seems like a massive value for early drafters. When the lockout ends (and it’s gonna end, otherwise owners gonna take losses and that doesn’t look good for investors), and Syndergaard shows up to spring training throwing fine, his ADP will skyrocket. Those spring training videos are wild for ADP. Remember what happened in 2021 when Randy Dobnak showed off his new pitch in spring training and everybody was drafting him as their SP5 and projecting a 10 K/9 because he had a new slider? Then the Twins went and did Twins things and Dobnak spent most of the year driving Ubers while giving way to players like Bailey Ober, who absolutely nobody was drafting in 2021 pre-season. All of this is to say: ADP is wonky and incredibly volatile, and right now people are drafting Thor as if he’s impotent rather than the fastball-wielding starter on a comeback team. If the Angels’ top four batters stay healthy and Syndergaard throws 140-150IP, that’s enough for a potential Top 20 SP finish, and that’s all you really want from your 210th pick. We could easily see a 2021 Carlos Rodon-type season from Syndergaard (and remember, Rodon finished as SP10 on 130IP…I mean, I said that like 500 words ago). If you’re drafting early, get your share of Syndergaard before he jumps up the draft board. If we get to spring training and he looks tired, we’ll re-evaluate there. But right now Thor is basically free in drafts and we can’t overlook that value.
Alright, there are a bunch of other pitchers I know you’re scared to draft because they’re coming off of injuries — Mike Clevinger, Luis Severino, Elieser Hernandez…JUSTIN VERLANDER. I mean, you do you on Verlander. But these are the guys who I see as being most notable in their injury to ADP ratio, and hopefully you’re drafting more Thor and less Flaherty at cost in 2022.
Who are your comeback targets for 2022? Let me know down in the comments!
