Major League Baseball has now played 10 of 26 weeks this season, which means we have some statistical basis, but not a whole season, to evaluate players for our fantasy baseball squads. With Opening Day well past us and the dog days of summer at the doorstep, who have been some of the more interesting risers and fallers?
In the aggregate, 10 weeks of production is not a lot of information to use when evaluating players for the rest of the season. That’s why it’s also important to look at usage, lineup placement, platoon splits, and other factors when trying to determine what to do with tough player choices.
This piece will look at some MLB fantasy assets that have seen their fantasy value rise and fall through the first eight weeks of games. This will hopefully give us an idea of what to do with these players moving forward.
Roster percentages (from Yahoo) and stats include all games finished by June 2.
MLB Risers
Junior Caminero (3B), Tampa Bay Rays
Over the last 14 days, Junior Caminero is second in all of baseball with six home runs and leads all players with 18 RBI. Add in a .362 batting average, and we have one of the biggest turnarounds from the first month of the season to now. In March/April, Caminero hit .257/.292/.469. In May, his slugging percentage was almost 100 points higher at .561, and he has eight home runs since May started. He has doubled his RBIs from 13 in the first month to 24 in May, and cut his strikeouts from 26 to 17.
This version of Junior Caminero is the one the Rays – and fantasy managers – thought they would be getting when he was going around pick 80 in 2025 drafts. The power was always lurking, and now it has been on full display over the last four weeks. Caminero is now 12th in all of baseball in max exit velocity this year and has cut his strikeouts down to under 20%. Despite being just 21 years old, this is a batted-ball and power profile that is maturing before our very eyes.
Max Muncy (3B), Los Angeles Dodgers
Who is tied with Junior Caminero with six home runs over the last 14 days (no one is catching Big Dumper and his seven home runs, of course)? That would be the newly-bespectacled Max Muncy, who has six homers, 14 RBI, and a .314 average in his last 35 plate appearances. Muncy started wearing glasses when he discovered a slight astigmatism, and the numbers have been staggering.
As of April 30, Muncy was hitting .180 with a .531 OPS and zero home runs. Since that time, Muncy is hitting .277 with a 1.015 OPS with nine home runs. It’s an incredible turn of events for a player who has spent 10 seasons not having to worry about his eyes (and who ironically has one of the best batting eyes in the game), but sometimes it’s the little things that can help produce big results.
Drew Rasmussen (SP), Tampa Bay Rays
Over the last 15 days, only two pitchers – Drew Rasmussen and Carlos Rodon – have at least 16 innings pitched, at least 16 strikeouts, and have two or more wins. Only one of those, Rasmussen and his three wins, has done it with an immaculate 0.00 ERA. With big names like Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, and Hunter Brown getting all the headlines over the last month, Drew Rasmussen’s resume is right up there with all of them.
Part of the reason Rasmussen doesn’t get the same smoke other pitchers do is because of his low strikeout numbers. He has just 26 punchouts in his last 32 innings, and strikes out only eight batters per nine innings this season. But that is offset by his elite 52% groundball rate and the fact that he almost NEVER allows home runs (0.86 homers per nine innings this season). This has been one of the best fantasy pitchers of the entire season, and there are still so many who are unaware. In Yahoo formats, Rasmussen isn’t even rostered in 17% of leagues.
MLB Fallers
Royce Lewis (3B), Minnesota Twins
Remember the 0-for-24 slump that Rafael Devers endured to start the 2025 season? Well, Royce Lewis, fresh off another injury, said, “I’ll see your 0-for-24, and raise you another eight at-bats.” Yes, Lewis recently broke out of a 0-for-32 slump on Tuesday when he got one hit and drove in two runs. Overall, that means Lewis has played in 23 games and is hitting .141/.221/.218 with one home run this season.
The M.O. for Lewis since 2022 has been that he absolutely smashes when he is healthy, but he can’t stay healthy for more than half a season. This year, however, he can’t stay healthy, and he can’t hit either. The two are likely tied together, but at this point, Lewis doesn’t belong anywhere near fantasy baseball starting rosters. His barrel rate is down, and his groundballs are way up compared to last year. Those are two problems he must fix to have any relevance for fantasy baseball the rest of the season.
Willy Adames (SS), San Francisco Giants
How soon is too soon to have buyer’s remorse after you handed out a seven-year, $182 million deal to a franchise shortstop? After 32 home runs, 21 steals, and 112 RBI last season for Milwaukee, San Francisco invested heavily in Willy Adames, but so far that investment has crashed and burned. Through 62 games, Adames is hitting .201/.292/.316 with five bombs and three stolen bases. Through more than a third of the season, Adames is on pace to hit fewer than half as many home runs as last season.
We probably should have seen something like this coming. Oracle Park is a horrific place to hit home runs, and is dead last in Statcast’s park factors for home runs over the last three seasons. There might be some bad luck to Adames’ performance this year. His BABIP is way down from his career average. His hard-hit rate is actually up over 2024. But his expected batting average is just .207, and he is striking out almost 26% of the time.
Fantasy managers can cut bait or afford to bench Adames until something improves. The San Francisco Giants? Not so much.
Mason Miller (RP), Athletics
Should there be a documentary made about what has happened to the Mason Miller of 2024 compared to the Mason Miller of 2025? Do we need to get 30 For 30 involved somehow? The Mason Miller of 2024 had a 2.49 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and 14.4 strikeouts per nine innings. He was absolutely wicked and unhittable. The 2025 version is somehow better at striking hitters out (16.9 batters per nine innings), but his ERA and WHIP are abysmal. Those numbers are 5.49 and 1.32, respectively, for the year and look like Bizarro Miller out there compared to this time a year ago.
Miller has made a conscious effort to reduce the use of his (100+ mile per hour) fastball in 2025, going from 63% in 2024 to 58% so far in 2025. His slider usage is trending upwards, and there might be something to the fact that hitters aren’t being fooled by that pitch the same way they would by a 101-mile-per-hour fastball. Miller does have 12 saves this year, so it’s not like he has been a zero for fantasy value. But he is no longer the sure thing, lock-them-down closer he was as a rookie in 2024.
With Miller tanking and the Athletics stumbling towards the bottom of the standings in the American League, Miller can’t be considered a top-five closer anymore. Skills and opportunity are the two biggest components of the job, and both are struggling right now.
Nice write up my brother!
Keep up the good work!
Aloha!
Mahalo!