Major League Baseball has now played 14 of 26 weeks this season, which means we have some statistical basis, but not a whole season, to evaluate players for our fantasy baseball squads. With Opening Day well past us and the dog days of summer in our faces, who have been some of the more interesting risers and fallers?
In the aggregate, 14 weeks of production is not a lot of information to use when evaluating players for the rest of the season. That’s why it’s also important to look at usage, lineup placement, platoon splits, and other factors when trying to determine what to do with tough player choices.
This piece will look at some MLB fantasy assets that have seen their fantasy value rise and fall through the first 14 weeks of games. This will hopefully give us an idea of what to do with these players moving forward.
Roster percentages (from Yahoo) and stats include all games finished by July 1.
MLB Risers
Riley Greene (OF), Detroit Tigers
We have to start with the guy who hit a pair of three-run home runs on Wednesday night.
There are exactly two players in Major League Baseball this season who are hitting at least .295, have at least 20 doubles, and have at least 20 home runs. One of them is Aaron Judge. The other is, of course, Tigers outfielder Riley Greene. Greene is at .296/.346/.552 this season and is fourth in the league with 69 RBI. Maybe you’ve heard of the guys ahead of him. Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh?
Greene has, without a doubt, been one of the best value hitters in all of fantasy baseball this year. He was drafted around pick 100 in the spring baseball drafts, as we thought the power would come sometime, but perhaps not this soon.
Greene is putting up career-best numbers in barrel rate, launch angle, and max exit velocity. All of those numbers look elite and support Riley’s breakout this year, despite him being only 24 years old. The one thing to watch with Greene is strikeouts. He has 107 strikeouts on the season, the third-highest mark in the league this season (number one is a name from the list below). But his called plus swinging strike rate this year is down from last year, so some of the high strikeouts from the last month might fade away in the summer months.
This is a legit breakout and superstar-making year for Riley Greene.
Otto Lopez (2B/SS), Miami Marlins
Is the Miami Marlins winning seven straight games the most unusual number out of the 2025 season so far? No matter how you dissect how they did it, Otto Lopez has to be mentioned in the first sentence. Over the last 14 days, he is hitting .362 with 10 runs, 15 RBI, two home runs, and a steal. During that time, he is a top-25 hitter and is now hitting in the top three of the Miami lineup every single day.
Just 26 years old, Lopez is seeing improvement everywhere compared to his rookie campaign in 2024. His walk and strikeout rates are both better. He already has more home runs. Lopez’s barrel rate and max exit velocity are both up. And his current .257 actual batting average comes with a .301 expected batting average, suggesting that this level of play might be sustainable for the young middle-infielder.
Drew Rasmussen (SP), Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Rasmussen had perhaps the worst game of his season on Monday night, when he didn’t even make it into the fourth inning against the lowly Athletics, one of the worst offenses in baseball. But that should not overshadow or diminish how incredible Rasmussen has been in 2025. Before Sunday, he pitched at least five innings in 16 straight starts, which led to a 2.78 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and seven wins in his first 17 games. The 74 strikeouts are nice in 87 innings, but that’s not why you roster Drew Rasmussen. You want the consistency and the low ratios.
Rasmussen’s ground ball rate is up over 50% this season, and his home run per nine innings rate is just 0.93. Keeping the ball on the ground instead of out of the park is a recipe for a good season, particularly since Tampa Bay plays in a new stadium this year. That stadium, which is a Spring Training complex, is not as conducive to the great pitching environments of Tropicana Field. Rasmussen is already on pace to cruise past the 11 wins that is his career high. If he finishes with somewhere around 14-15 wins, he will go down as one of the best pitcher picks in the entire 2025 fantasy draft season.
MLB Fallers
Oneil Cruz (SS/OF), Pittsburgh Pirates
Such awesome power, such incredible speed, but oh my gosh, what a poor ability to hit baseballs. Oneil Cruz has seen his stock fall from a top-10 asset earlier in the fantasy baseball season to one that barely has him hanging on to a .200 batting average. Cruz already has 15 home runs and 27 stolen bases this season, but imagine what kind of player he could be if he made contact and didn’t strike out 33% of the time.
Those counting stats (including 46 runs in a weak Pirates offense) are always going to have some value in fantasy baseball, but the average is now a millstone around the neck of whatever manager rosters Oneil Cruz. His contact rate has fallen from 71% in 2023 to 67% in 2025. His swing percentage at balls in the zone is down to 56%, five percentage points lower than in 2024.
For us old guys, this is basically like if Rob Deer could have stolen 50 bases. Cruz has so much raw talent, but there are some things on the fringes that are preventing him from belonging in the elite tier of superstars.
Marcell Ozuna (DH/OF), Atlanta Braves
There is a lot of blame to go around for the Atlanta Braves’ season starting in the toilet and still struggling to get out of it. Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley have all had major struggles at the plate. Chris Sale is on the 60-day IL. Raisel Iglesias has been one of the worst closers in baseball and is now in a committee. But perhaps no one has seen their star fall faster (or farther) than Marcell Ozuna. Brought in to be a mashing DH, that’s exactly what he was in 2023 and 2024 (79 combined home runs, 204 combined RBI). But this season has been a disaster.
Ozuna’s batting average has dropped almost 60 points this season (.244 from .302), and he is barely on pace for a 20/80 season. His hard-hit rate and barrel rate have both plummeted this season, and his groundball rate is now up over 43%. He is being more patient this year, but that has led to a drop in his zone swing rate from 69.3% in 2024 to just 56.8% in 2025.
This is a case where just trying to swing out of a slump might actually be the best advice.
Luis Castillo (SP), Seattle Mariners
This week marks the halfway point of a five-year, $108 million contract that the Seattle Mariners gave to Luis Castillo before the 2023 season. So far, they have no division titles and no playoff wins to show for that investment, and now Castillo is beginning to show signs that he is starting to slow down as he approaches age 33. I wonder how the Mariners feel about the contract for Castillo now, after what they have seen the last two weeks.
Castillo has posted a 4.76 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with no wins in the last 15 days. On the season, his ERA is up to 3.55, but that’s with an expected ERA of 4.71. His strikeout rate (7.4 per nine innings) is far and away a career low. And he is now walking three men per nine innings as well. BABIP and home run rate are normal, and he still gets 40% of balls in play on the ground. This may be a guy whose best years are now behind him, even though he has 2.5 more to go in Seattle.
O’Neil on a contending team would be a game changer.
I would love to see if the offensive malaise is just from being on the Pirates or he really can’t make consistent contact anywhere
Who you got at the hot corner in a keep forever, Cam Smith or Barger?
Maybe I’m biased as an Astros fan, but I have Cam quite a bit ahead of Barger when comparing the two
Smith won’t be 3B eligible next year