The LABR Mixed Draft represents the start of my draft season. I get the first version of projections/rankings/$ values out in mid-January. Over the next month, I familiarize myself with ADP + my draft board. In the process, I make a bunch of tweaks on the projections thanks to reconsidering the assumptions behind player playing time, batting order, player role, etc. It is only when I feel like the projections are in good shape that I begin mapping out a draft plan.
After the draft, I crank out this long-ass draft review/analysis post and get ready to draft a bunch of teams from Opening Day culminating in the NFBC Main Event.
This year’s LABR draft was on Tuesday, Feb 22. As always, thanks to Steve Gardner at USA Today for the invite.
Last Year Recap (here’s my post-draft writeup)
I made it 6-for-6 in non-BS abbreviated seasons where I finished between 3rd and 7th place in this league . I finished in 7th place in 2021 with 92 points, only 13 points behind Jeff Erickson of Rotowire who won in a photo finish vs several other teams.
A better coin flip on SP1 (chose Flaherty over Woodruff) + ending up with Burnes as SP2 over Sonny Gray (or Carlos Carrasco) probably boosts me into 1st. My other pitching choices were generally strong – Morton/Eovaldi/Pressly/McGee and Wade Miley on waivers were the highlights. Despite an awful C + MI draft, I had enough hits (Soto, Arozarena, Stanton, Mountcastle, Riley) and FAAB success to put up a good enough offense.
Congrats to Jeff Erickson for the win!
My Draft Philosophy
In 2020, I christened a new acronym (DARWINISM) to the pile of fantasy baseball draft strategy acronyms. Below is a summary from that year’s post.
DARWINISM = Drafting A Roster Which Integrates Needs (of) In Season Management
When I draft, I am the General Manager. I will create draft plans/strategies that simplify my draft day decisions so I can put together a roster that complements my in-season Manager strengths and maximize chances of team success. Maximizing or ‘winning’ preseason standings is nice but not my main objective.
Some notes on DARWINISM:
- You are overtly customizing your draft strategy to who you are as an in-season Manager. It could be risky or risk averse. Hitter/pitcher balanced vs imbalanced. I am open to a variety of draft strategies/preferences. While I find really rigid draft strategies to be uninspired, my only recommendation would be to reconsider your approach if you aren’t seeing success.
- If you find that your drafting GM has a stronger voice than your in-season Manager, then you really need to step up your in-season play (a Razzball Tools subscription certainly helps).
- I think this type of strategy comes more natural to ‘gut’ players. The very nature of being a ‘quant’ leads to more draft ego and trying to ‘win the draft’. The concept of ‘value’ drafting sounds egoless but it is the opposite; its rooted in thinking one’s rankings are so good that you could win solely by exploiting other drafters’ inefficiencies. Do you go to the supermarket with a plan or do you just buy whatever’s on sale?
- The closest thing I have to absolutes are: 1) “Try not to draft player unless there is a reasonable chance they won’t be on the board during your next pick” and 2) “Don’t look at in-draft standings and projected stats”.
- #1 is pretty obvious.
- Re: #2, these mean nothing to your in-season Manager once the season starts. Figure out ways to isolate the slivers of value that may help your Manager – e.g., I have a view in my Draft Tool (free with a season-long sub) that lets me see how balanced I am across categories and how I look vs projected league averages per category. But everything is converted onto the same scale (category $) so I am not fixating on totals or succumbing to natural biases like how 31 vs 29 HR feels like a bigger difference than 29 vs 27 HR or how easy it is to laser focus on HR/SB/K at the expense of R/RBI/AVG/WHIP. You should not be obsessed with reaching targets – you are using them as guideposts not goalposts.
Here are a couple of in-season lessons/preferences in the voice of Manager Rudy that General Manager Rudy has incorporated into his draft strategy for 15-team mixed with weekly pickups over the years. I am not saying these are right for everyone. Just know thy self and draft accordingly.
- Don’t Be Safe, Don’t Draft Scared – I can backfill or exceed replacement-level stats via FAAB. The boring low ceiling players (aka the Markaki) are cheap in FAAB while the sexier higher ceiling players are more expensive. Avoid the temptation of boring ‘low ceiling’ guys to pretty up the team projections. Focus more on guys with high ceilings vs high floors. I prefer variance at the weekly level vs steadiness because I can always bench (or put on IL) during the bad weeks. Remember, you are trying to beat 10-14 other teams. Embracing some risk/upside puts you in a better position to separate from the pack IMO.
- Don’t Go Into The Season With a Self-Inflicted Weakness – Shit may happen that leaves our team weak in a stat or a position during the preseason. But April FAAB should be deployed to find the best players available across all positions/categories. I do not want to tunnel vision on, say, SPs because half my drafted staff is in AAA or beginning an expected stay on the IL.
- If You Feel Good About your RP2 or C2, You Probably Spent Too Much – Don’t burn a pick in the top half of the draft on an RP2. Take a whole bunch in the late rounds. Safety in numbers. Worst case, I dump them and more spots to fill for FAAB! As for 2nd catcher, you can probably get your 25th catcher in the last couple of rounds. If you are going to draft a catcher before then, they better be markedly better than that 25th catcher to justify the opportunity cost.
- Don’t Tie Up The Bench With Rookie Nookie – I like upside. I like risk. But I need every bench spot for playing matchups and stashing potential closers. If you have to spend more draft capital to get rookies that will play by mid-April, do it. But just know I will cut their asses if they are the minors after I have filed taxes. Also, avoid ‘well-rounded’ rookies. It works much better if they are elite in power or speed (especially speed).
- Multi-Position Guys – A little flexibility is great. Maybe one 1B/OF and a guy who can cover 2B/SS. Do not overpay for this flexibility as I seem to always find these types on waivers for cheap.
2022 Draft
| POS | PICK # | PICK | PLAYER | TEAM | NFBC ADP | DIFF |
| C | 103 | 7.3 | Daulton Varsho | ARI | 92 | 11 |
| C | 228 | 16.3 | Travis d’Arnaud | ATL | 212 | 16 |
| 1B | 283 | 19.13 | Jesus Aguilar | MIA | 311 | (28) |
| 2B | 13 | 1.13 | Ozzie Albies | ATL | 19 | (6) |
| SS | 48 | 4.3 | Wander Franco | TB | 57 | (9) |
| 3B | 163 | 11.13 | Justin Turner | LAD | 157 | 6 |
| OF | 18 | 2.3 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | 28 | (10) |
| OF | 78 | 6.3 | Giancarlo Stanton | NYY | 97 | (19) |
| OF | 223 | 15.13 | AJ Pollock | LAD | 212 | 11 |
| OF | 258 | 18.3 | Jesus Sanchez | MIA | 218 | 40 |
| OF | 288 | 20.3 | Rafael Ortega | CHC | 327 | (39) |
| CI | 403 | 27.13 | Yandy Diaz (1B/3B) | TB | 445 | (42) |
| MI | 73 | 5.13 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2B/SS) | MIA | 76 | (3) |
| U | 318 | 22.3 | Oneil Cruz (SS) | PIT | 211 | 107 |
| BENCH | 373 | 25.13 | Nick Senzel (OF) | CIN | 522 | (149) |
| BENCH | 408 | 28.3 | Jose Miranda (3B) | MIN | 491 | (83) |
| SP | 43 | 3.13 | Lucas Giolito | CHW | 45 | (2) |
| SP | 108 | 8.3 | Shane McClanahan | TB | 118 | (10) |
| SP | 133 | 9.13 | Framber Valdez | HOU | 142 | (9) |
| SP | 138 | 10.3 | Eduardo Rodriguez | DET | 160 | (22) |
| SP | 168 | 12.3 | Pablo Lopez | MIA | 153 | 15 |
| SP | 193 | 13.13 | Michael Kopech | CHW | 167 | 26 |
| SP | 253 | 17.13 | Steven Matz | STL | 243 | 10 |
| RP | 198 | 14.3 | Lucas Sims | CIN | 235 | (37) |
| RP | 313 | 21.13 | Garrett Whitlock | BOS | 240 | 73 |
| BENCH | 378 | 26.3 | Reid Detmers (SP) | LAA | 484 | (106) |
| BENCH | 343 | 23.13 | Tyler Wells (RP) | BAL | 451 | (108) |
| BENCH | 348 | 24.3 | Tanner Rainey (RP) | WSH | 382 | (34) |
| BENCH | 433 | 29.13 | Art Warren (RP) | CIN | 596 | (163) |
Draft Strategy Overview
- Picking 13th, my hope was to get a pair from the following quartet of power/speed players that typically fell past the top 12 in NFBC drafts so far: Kyle Tucker, Luis Robert, Mookie Betts and Ozzie Albies. If none are available for pick two, Rafael Devers and Yordan Alvarez are the fallbacks.
- Securing a strong five category base was the main goal through 7 rounds. At best 2 SPs.
- Punt RP to spend draft capital on a deep SP rotation. Aim for one RP in first 20 rounds and then draft several RPs in the last third of the draft.
- Aim for balance across categories – particularly on power/speed/AVG.
- Aim for around the projected market’s Hit/Pitch split (projected at 63.5/36.5).
Early Round Notes
- Kyle Tucker, Luis Robert, and Mookie Betts all went before my 1.13 pick. Very surprising. I grabbed Ozzie Albies and then took Yordan Alvarez (10 picks ahead of ADP) after my other safety pick (Rafael Devers) was snagged a pick before. It wasn’t until a day later talking with Jeff Erickson and Chris Liss on SiriusXM that it dawned on me that Shohei Ohtani was still on the board for BOTH my picks. It was so unexpected based on NFBC ADP (I calculated 2% to get to 1.13) that he was completely out of sight / out of mind as I wasn’t fixated on my board. F*** me.
- I had Lucas Giolito and Robbie Ray as my two targets for either 3.13 or 4.03 to pair with Peter Alonso or Matt Olson. Olson and Ray were taken before me. I grabbed Lucas Giolito and got sniped on Alonso. Pivoted to Wander Franco to bolster my R/RBI/AVG base and contribute in SB.
- I wanted one of the last 20/20 plays in Round 5 and was leaning Buxton over Chisholm. Only Chisholm made it back.
General Notes/Strategy
I have used the same post-draft writeup structure for a while now as I find it more interesting than a pick-by-pick analysis and most readers seem to agree. This format does mean I talk more about my competitors’ teams than most post-draft write-ups. I do my best to be respectful yet honest.
Hopefully, you’ll find some piece of strategy you can apply to your upcoming drafts. I have updated this to reflect changes in my philosophy since last year. Some of it incorporates learning. Some of it is driven by changes in the player pool.
You’ll see me note a lot of percentages about pick values. I calculate pick values based on my auction dollar projections. The #1 pick gets the $ value of the 1st ranked player, etc. Generally, the last pick in the 22nd round is worth a dollar (13 hitters + 9 pitchers * 15 teams) as I budget $0 for the 2nd catcher. The 23rd to 29th rounds are valued at or around $0.
| Topic | In General | My Team | Observations on Other Teams |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit/Pitch Mix | I’m typically looking to stay about league average which I estimated pre-draft at 63.5/36.5 Hit/Pitch. (Note that all mixed league Player Raters have shifted to this split vs 67/33 after research showed this is closer to the norm even in casual leagues)
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In 2020, the split was 64/28/8 (Hit/SP/RP).
In 2021, the split was 61/31/8 which was the highest pitcher split I’ve ever seen in this league. This year it was 63/28/9. I went 63/32/5 this year which fit with strategy to bolster my SP by avoiding a typical RP1. |
Last year had massive hit/pitch deviations with 3 teams at 70+% hit and 6 teams under 60%.
This year was similar to 2020 in that the distribution of hit/pitch splits was condensed. 13 of the 15 teams were between 60-67% hit with Ray Flowers at 71/29 and Joe Sheehan (highest pitch % for the second year in a row) at 56% hit/44% pitch. Note: The amount you spent on SPs in the first half of the draft matters more than the round you drafted your first SP. Ray Flowers drafted Cole at 1.12 and then drafted three more SPs in the first 16 rounds (7th, 12th, 13th). I drafted one SP in the first 7 (3rd) and then five more in the first 16 rounds (8th, 9th, 10th, 12th, and 13th). He spent 27% of draft capital on SP. I spent 32% on SP. |
| Upside vs Reliability/ Volume | Have a mix of high ceiling and high floor players (with early picks ideally being both) while trying to maximize PA/IP volume.
As noted above, “Remember, you are trying to beat 10-14 other teams. Embracing some risk/upside puts you in a better position to separate from the pack.” |
I am happy with this hitter upside/reliability mix.
While not an optimal start based on NFBC ADP, Albies/Alvarez qualify as high ceiling + high floor plays. On the hitter side, Wander Franco, Jazz Chisholm and Daulton Varsho (double upside of hitting + PA volume) were my big upside plays with Jesus Sanchez, Oneil Cruz, and Jose Miranda in the back half of the draft. I mixed in some veteran bats like Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Turner, and A.J. Pollock. On the pitcher side, my staff skews young with Shane McClanahan, Michael Kopech, and a late pick of Reid Detmers as the most upsidy. My SP7 (Steven Matz) is the grizzled vet at 30. |
Par for the course in this league where Tim McLeod gets real prospecty in the 11th-20th round (Adley Rutschman, Torkelson, Lane Thomas) so it tanks his preseason standings. His draft style is not for everyone but it suits his in-season manager as he somehow is able to backfill enough PA/IP to avoid counting stat deficiencies.
Also par for the course, the two most reliable/high floor squads are ESPN and newly honored FSWA HOF Scott Pianowski of Yahoo! |
| Bouncebacks | I like them as long as health not a major question mark, skills/age look positive, and properly discounted. | My bouncebacks last year were a mixed bag as Stanton delivered on his 9th round price tag (deflated somewhat b/c DH-only) while Paul DeJong in the 17th was a dud.
The only bounceback who was truly on my radar during the draft was Justin Verlander. I passed him up on the 7/8 turn for Varsho and McClanahan. I had already priced in an IP discount given health/age. It will take some spring training proof for me to be convinced that he still has the arm strength to be a dominant power pitcher. |
Mike Podhorzer drafted Mondesi, Buxton, Yelich, Verlander, Severino, Syndergaard, Carrasco, and Andres Gimenez. All except Buxton are arguably double-bouncebacks because there should be concern for re-injury and either skill erosion or skill deficiency (e.g., Mondesi/Gimenez). The concern I have for taking on this risk is the lack of collinearity – e.g., stacking hitters on a team has collinearity because their positive outcomes have some correlation – see Blue Jays hitters in 2021. These are all independent risks so the chances of a ‘best outcome’ is lower.
Zack Steinhorn typically likes bouncebacks and has a couple in Nola, LeMahieu, and Conforto. |
| Category Balance vs Best Player Available | In a weekly league with FAAB, I prefer to come out of drafts without glaring weaknesses. So I do monitor this during draft so, everything equal, I am taking the player who provides better balance. | Aside from a planned ‘roll the dice’ strategy on SV, I feel I did well in balancing across the 10 categories.
For hitters, my team skews a little towards HR/RBI/AVG vs R/SB but I project my team to be above average in all. One thing I recalled from last year and preseason research is that my draft room weighs AVG equally to HR/SB but the market values the latter two higher (particularly SB). So I had earmarked Jazz Chisholm Jr. as a potential 5th round target despite him being lower in my draft board as one way to make sure I bridged the SB/AVG difference. I think my SPs provide a generally balanced mix of W/ERA/WHIP/K value. |
Here are teams that fall into the standard hitter category imbalances:
I have Joe Sheehan as a strong AVG team but weak in the other four categories (Verdugo + Madrigal + Arraez). |
| ADP vs “Get Your Guys!” | I prefer to wait as long as possible for guys I like but adjust based on draft room dynamics. At the very least, avoid drafting guys with high chances of being on the board for my next pick. | Focusing just on the first 15 rounds where getting value vs ADP is most important, my average pick was 4 picks before ADP which was about average for the room.
The biggest value plays (let’s define it as 1+ round discount) were Michael Kopech (26 picks lower than NFBC ADP), Jesus Sanchez (40 picks below ADP), Garrett Whitlock (73 picks), and Oneil Cruz (107 picks!) Players I drafted 15+ picks before ADP in first 20 rounds:
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The room averaged 6 picks above ADP. I would THINK the typical NFBC league finishes at 0 picks above ADP with maybe a +/- of 3 picks? So not terribly far off and I imagine hosting the draft on NFBC vs RTSports would’ve brought this number down.
The most ‘Get your guys’ drafters (using just top 15 round picks) were Alan Harrison (+22), Tim McLeod (+21), and Andrea LeMont (+21). Ray Flowers and Jeff Erickson were the biggest value drafters at -7. Ray’s value picks were primarily SPs as he had near 2 round discounts on Lance Lynn and Tyler Mahle. This is typical for Jeff although he deviated last year (+8) when he won the league. The three biggest top 15 round bargains based on ADP were Willy Adames by Alan Harrison (-64 picks), Keibert Ruiz by Joe Sheehan (-49), and Dr. Roto’s Hunter Renfroe (-41). The three biggest reaches were Andrea’s Trevor Bauer (+202), Alan Harrison’s Isiah Kiner-Falefa (+143) and ESPN’s Matt Barnes (+108). Note that IKF’s ADP is pre-Jung injury so that’s not as much of a reach as it appears. |
| Anticipate Other Teams’ Picks When Prioritizing | Get ahead of position runs to minimized getting sniped. When near a turn, be strategic on your pre/post picks. Do not sleep on guys you like if you feel they will not make it back to you. | At pick 13, I just had to anticipate two drafters (Steve Gardner and Joe Sheehan) and Joe is working off a much different draftboard than mine.
The toughest call was at 3.13 where I really liked Giolito and Alonso. I chose Giolito and Alonso went next to Steve Gardner (who let me know after the draft he would not have taken Giolito). I’ll say this – I felt much better in the draft with pivoting to a different bat (Wander Franco) than I did last year when I chose Arozarena over Burnes and pivoted to Sonny Gray in the 5th. I was eyeing Keibert Ruiz in the 14th round but was almost relieved when Joe took him on the turn. I hopefully frustrated the owners before/after me. (Steve confirmed I sniped him on Chisholm) |
Hard to judge other teams on this but I like how Jeff Erickson and Alan Harrison jumped Tucker and Robert slightly based on ADP correctly suspecting that the non-Ohtani power/speed well was going to be dry when they picked next (unless they reached on Mullins). |
| Closers | Closer situations have never been more muddled thanks to bullpen committees and role fluidity. This has led to the clear RP1s going earlier in drafts.
In the past, I liked securing one RP1 (like last year with Pressly) and then a number of lottery tickets for RP2. For at least this year, unless there is a dramatic ADP fall, I’m punting RP1 as well. |
I invested only 5% of draft capital in RPs which is probably my lowest percentage ever.
I went a little earlier than I’d like on Lucas Sims (14.3) given lack of role certainty. But the K-rate is nice and he seems like the favorite. I cuffed him with a last round Art Warren (great finish). Garrett Whitlock (21.13) fell further than I expected given Barnes’ implosion to end 2021. There are rumors he could start in 2022 which I could live with as well (but would prefer he closes). Tyler Wells (23.13) and Tanner Rainey (24.3) have solid K-rates and are slight favorites (Kyle Finnegan ended season poorly and Rainey has a much better K-rate…albeit worse BB-rate). |
The room invested 9.2% in RPs which is a jump from last year’s 8.1%.
Dr. Roto set a record (I think) with 17% in RPs with a 3.7 Liam Hendriks and a 7.7 Jordan Romano. Four other teams invested 12+% (Ryan Bloomfield, Jeff Erickson, Zach Steinhorn, and Fred Zinkie). Four teams (including me) were below 6% on RPs with Ray Flowers at only 1.6% and Scott Pianowski + Andrea Lemont at 5%. All four of us took 3-5 lottery tickets. I find it interesting how many strong players HATE digging for Saves in FAAB. I like it as those are the people I least want to battle with on Sunday nights :) |
| Middle Infielders | The glut of MIs, especially SS, has made ‘scarcity’ arguments scarce. I just wanted to avoid filling up on MIs too quickly. | After a zero MI in the first 10 round draft last year that ended up AWFUL (Gimenez, Solak, DeJong, Hoerner), I ended up investing heavily in MI with Albies (1.13), Franco (4.3), and Chisholm (5.13). I also added Oneil Cruz (22.3) as a speculative play who could slot in UTIL or maybe even OF depending how things shake out in the spring.
If my MIs do not perform much better than last year’s crew, I am in big trouble. |
MIs in the first 20 rounds went about 6 picks ahead of ADP, mirroring the draft as a whole. My favorite value compared to my projection was Bobby Witt Jr. who went to Jeff Erickson at an 18 pick discount at pick 111. There is risk for sure but his range of outcomes have major overlap with my Jazz Chisholm Jr. at 73. Adames at a 4 round discount is pretty nice too.
I didn’t love the value Joe Sheehan got with Corey Seager at 3.15 (with an ADP of 78) but it’s not far off from my projected value. |
| Catchers | I typically like to punt Catchers. The demands of the position lead to greater injury risk and more volatile offensive numbers IMO. I prefer catchers who aren’t AVG sieves.
One big note for 2021 is the universal DH which provides PA upside to some catchers. |
Last year’s Wilson Ramos (18) and Elias Dias (29) didn’t pan out. Ramos had a hot start and then was cancelled. Elias Diaz had an awful start to the season and pretty sure I churned him out.
This year was markedly different. I doubt I have ever spent as much as a 7th (Daulton Varsho) and a 16th (Travis D’Arnaud). That 8.2% of draft capital was 4th most among drafters. I did get both at 10-16 pick discounts vs ADP. The case for Daulton Varsho is he’s going to start most games in the OF so the greater injury risk/wear and tear is gone, he’ll probably hit in the middle of the lineup, AND he’s projected to steal 15 bases. He is one of the few players in the first 10 rounds that I’d argue has both performance upside (2nd year player) AND PA upside (I have him near 500 PA, could get to 600 PA). As for D’Arnaud, I thought he and Kirk had better power + AVG floors than the other catchers on the board and I did not really need to fill any other positions in the 16th round. D’Arnaud won the proverbial coin flip. |
The 5.5% spent on catchers was at least a 3-year high (4.8% in 2021, 4.6% in 2020). The 23 catchers taken in the first 20 rounds averaged 8 picks ahead of ADP whereas the non-C hitters taken in the first 20 rounds went about 4 picks ahead of ADP.
While the top-end catcher picks are one factor (3 in the first 51 picks), it was also interesting that only three catchers were taken in the final four rounds (and one was a speculative play on MJ Melendez as a C3). The top investors at catcher were Mike Podhorzer at 13% (Sal Perez + Contreras) and Jeff Erickson at 11% (Will Smith and Tyler Stephenson). Alan Harrison (1.3%) and Ryan Bloomfield (1.7%) were the two dumpster divers though I don’t mind their selections. |
| Starting Pitchers | Draft quality and quantity. Mix upside and consistency but put a little more weight on quality vs quantity of IP.
Get 7 SPs you feel comfortable starting in most weeks. Draft 1-2 extra SP if there is value or upside.
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Despite only one SP in the first 3 rounds, my 32% of draft capital spent on SPs was 3rd highest in the draft. This was by design. I wanted to draft 7 SPs by as early as the 15th round depending on RP availability.
I ended up with 7 SPs in the first 17 rounds and then added a flier on Reid Detmers in the 26th round. I usually prefer 9-10 (vs the 8 I drafted) but this year I preferred using late picks on RPs and hitter fliers instead. I’ll know pretty quickly if some of those selections are underwater and can backfill with replacement-level SPs. My pitching staff projects better than it feels to me. Part of that is that I am so conditioned to weighting SP1/SP2/SP3 higher and Giolito/McLanahan/Framber is just fine. But that conditioning is a time when there was better SP depth and SP5/SP6/SP7 was easier to replace/churn. So I’m going with data for this year and my gut can follow for 2023 if it pans out. |
The room averaged 8.5 SPs which is a notable tick up from last year’s 7.8 SPs/team.
The average SP draft capital expenditure was 28% and ranged from 17% (Dr. Roto) to 35% (Sheehan). The second lowest was 24%. ESPN led with 11 SPs drafted with Fred Zinkie next with 10 SPs. Three teams tied for the least with 7 SPs. Ryan Bloomfield and Alan Harrison had similar builds as me (7 SPs by round 17) but they invested a bit less by waiting later on SP1. When comparing my projected values to competitors’ pitching staffs, it feels as incongruous as it did when evaluating my team. The only thing I can intuit is that there probably will be a few more 5 SP / 4 RP weeks than in previous years.
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| Speed | SBs are in such short supply that it is more important than ever to have a plan for where you can draft speed at value. | My goal was to secure a strong SB base after the first 7 rounds and avoid anyone with less than 15 HR power. I know many players like to put an explicit number on their SB target. As anyone who uses my draft room knows, I look at projected $ value for categories vs the projected stats because it puts everything on the same scale ($1 Runs = $1 SB) and leads to more rational (i.e., less emotional) decision-making.
After four rounds, it was not looking good. I wanted two solid SB threats and Albies + Wander Franco represented 1.5. Luckily Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Daulton Varsho were available at my 5th and 7th picks as there were no viable backup speed plays at those draft positions that I wanted (Jonathan India was the closest, Buxton went a few picks before my 5th pick). With that base, all I needed to do was get some decent contributors and a flier or two for an above average SB team. A.J. Pollock (15th), Ortega (20th), Oneil Cruz (22nd), and Senzel (25th) fit that bill.
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The top 32 SB contributors were drafted 5.5 picks earlier than ADP which was a minor premium for non-catchers.
The best early SB values were Ohtani, Buxton, and Witt who each went about a round later than ADP. The best late SB value was Oneil Cruz who went over 100 picks after ADP. The biggest early overpays for speed were Randy Arozarena and Miles Straw who went a round higher than ADP. Mike Podhorzer’s $SB value was the highest team total by far in any category. If he drafted Eloy, Tyler O’Neill, or Springer instead of Mondesi, he still would have had a top 5 SB team. Drafting Acuna/Mondesi and then adding Buxton is kind of like winning the lottery over the weekend and then still reporting for work at Wal-Mart on Monday. Understandably, a few teams are lacking in speed and this is a trading league so maybe it works out. |
