This is almost the end of the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings. With these top 80 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names that I’m really gunning for on my teams… My deeper teams. On last year’s top 80, there was one guy who truly emerged (Mat Latos) and a few who kinda did (Filthy Sanchez, Trevor Cahill and Brandon Morrow), so I imagine a lot of you won’t need most of the names on this list. But humor me. There’s tiers and projections mentioned for everyone. Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball:
61. Javier Vazquez – This tier is a continuation of the last tier in the top 60 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball. This tier goes from here until McDonald. I called this tier, “Grey’s going upside your head.” Vazquez wouldn’t surprise me if he goes from here to a top 20 starter because of his history in the NL. I already went over my Javier Vazquez fantasy after he went to the ‘lins. 2011 Projections: 12-10/3.75/1.25/170
62. Matt Garza – I didn’t go over Garza when he was traded because I think I started the rankings already. I’m only one man! (But sometimes I carry a mullet wig so I can pretend to be my alter ego, Grey Dirt.) Garza goes to the NL Central from the AL East. That’s a boon for anyone’s value. Carlos Silva even made the NL Central look silly at times last year. Unfortunately, Garza likes to give up fly balls and in Wrigley that’s a bigger issue than in the Trop. I have a feeling Garza’s going to beat my projections, but, for a guy who hasn’t had a xFIP below 4.00 in his career, I’m not willing to go any lower. 2011 Projections: 12-8/3.75/1.27/165
63. Jordan Zimmermann – Zimmermann’s probably going to keep getting drafted earlier and earlier as the season approaches. I nearly put him in the top 60 starters, but he’s coming off major surgery and he won’t throw an entire season. My guess is 150 IP from him. Of course, if J. Z’s having health problems, I feel bad for you, son. He’s got 99 problems but a pitch ain’t one. 2011 Projections: 10-8/3.70/1.26/140
64. Jeremy Hellickson – Already went over my Hellickson fantasy. 2011 Projections: 9-5/3.60/1.10/140
65. James McDonald – Has made his way firmly into the category of “People who think they know more than you are drafting this guy.” It’s clearly because of his September numbers — 2.31 ERA, 30 Ks in 35 IP. Hey, I get it. When you’re this deep, you have to latch onto something. I’m all for it. You shouldn’t draft safe with your last anything. I guarantee that there will be Clayton Richard or Aaron Harang types on waivers in just about every league. If McDonald has a good April, he’ll not only be owned but people will hold him with a death grip. 2011 Projections: 9-9/3.80/1.30/160
66. Jair Jurrjens – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until I call this tier, “Vets I’m ignoring.” Meesa wasn’t burned by Jar-Jar last year because meesa turned away from him as soon as he was injured in the spring. This year, he’s supposedly going to be fine. That’s nice, let him prove it on someone else’s team. 2011 Projections: 11-8/4.00/1.30/140
67. A.J. Burnett – Last year I was burned by Burnett (say that fast 117 times!). It still hurts when I sit down. This year I’m letting Burnett treat someone else like an extra on Oz. 2011 Projections: 12-10/4.15/1.35/160
68. Scott Baker – Member the smush session we had with Baker last year? Yeah, he gave you the clap. And not the good clap but the bad clap. 2011 Projections: 11-9/4.00/1.32/140
69. Gavin Floyd – Seems to consistently do worst than his FIP, which would be great if FIP were a category in my league. He’s about as unexciting as they come. Oh wait, Jeff Niemann’s next! 2011 Projections: 10-9/4.05/1.30/160
70. Jeff Niemann – I wrote this long diatribe about how I have nothing to say about Niemann then when I went to copy and paste it I lost it somewhere. Teach me to write filler! (Unlike this.) 2011 Projections: 10-10/4.15/1.30/130
71. Kevin Slowey – Honestly, I almost suggested you draft Slowey and Baker. It’s…so…hard…for…me…to….ignore…them. I’m trying to learn from past mistakes. (Okay, if you have to draft Baker or Slowey, go for Baker, his K-rate is better.) 2011 Projections: 10-7/4.10/1.28/125
72. Brett Cecil – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Davis. I call this tier, “There’s some upside here, but I wouldn’t expect anything.” There’s a good chance that if you draft one of the guys from this tier, you’re going to end up dropping them by mid-April. re: Cecil — He was once considered better than Romero. There’s signs of a terrific K-rate in the minors, the Jays have watched his innings well and he cut his walk rate last year. Great, wonderful, fantastic! Unfortunately, he’s still in the AL East, his K-rate last year was terrible and his xFIP was 4.32. 2011 Projections: 9-11/4.10/1.34/155
73. Anibal Sanchez – He’s only going to be 27 in 2011. I tell you that because that’s really the only thing I see as far as upside. Chances are he won’t be good as far as ERA goes and his K-rate falls the longer into the season he pitches. Eh, like I said, “He’s only 27!” 2011 Projections: 9-8/4.00/1.35/150
74. Brian Matusz – “The O’s successfully petition the league to switch them to the NL East.” “The question, Alex, is there any way Grey drafts Matusz?” 2011 Projections: 7-10/4.10/1.32/160
75. Wade Davis – I like Davis a lot, but I think we still might be a year too early on him. (See David Price’s 2009 for further reading.) I have a feeling I’m going to go crazy for Davis in 2012. As for 2011, there’s upside but his K-rate needs to make a major U-turn from last year and the whole AL East thing. On the bright side, his post-All-Star Break ERA was 3.28. 2011 Projections: 14-10/3.85/1.32/135 (<–pretty optimistic)
76. Jake Peavy – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Webb. I call this tier, “I’m not drafting any of them.” Maybe I’ll return for more tsuris in 2012 but right now I’m not going anywhere near these guys. There’s too many issues juggling healthy players as it is to worry about drafting an unhealthy one. 2011 Projections: 5-3/3.70/1.22/100
77. Johan Santana – If he were healthy going into the season, I wouldn’t own him in 2011. Too many bad trends associated with his name. 2011 Projections: 6-3/3.65/1.20/80
78. Brandon Webb – I already went over my Brandon Webb fantasy when he went to the Rangers. There’s not a whole lot there, but there’s not a whole lot to say until he actually pitches again in the majors. I’d let him do it on someone else’s fantasy team. 2011 Projections: 6-9/4.25/1.26/120
79. Mike Minor – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the list. I call this tier, “Total shots in the dark.” Mike Minor is getting a whole post dedicated to him later today. I wrote it behind my Rita Hayworth poster on my cell wall. Just need to transcribe it. 2011 Projections: 10-8/3.85/1.28/180
80. Travis Wood – If Wood doesn’t get a rotation spot, then ignore this. If Leake gets the rotation spot, ignore him in mixed leagues. Last year, Wood had a 7.54 K/9, a 2.28 walk rate and .227 BAA. That tells me I want Wood! Okay, Beavis, stop giggling. Only problem with Wood is Dusty may have Extenze’d him a little too much last year and his arm may fall off. 2011 Projections: 12-8/3.85/1.16/150
There’s a lot of pitchers after the top 80 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball, but here’s a few that stand out:
Bud Norris – You want a guy that could be this year’s Jonathan Sanchez? Here ya go. I mean that in the best of ways and the worst of ways. He could strikeout 200 while having a walk rate north of 4, a WHIP north of 1.45 and an ERA north of 4.50. If he can dance between the walks without giving up runs, he might have an incredible year. Take the chance on him. If it explodes in your face, you drop him. 2011 Projections: 10-7/4.00/1.40/180
Clayton Richard and Aaron Harang – Hodgepadres! 2011 Projections: Home starts that give you value and away starts that give you agita.
Jonathon Niese – He should’ve been ranked much higher. I moved him down here to highlight him with my “After Top 80” spotlight. (Don’t shine it in your eyes, you will go blind.) Let’s go over some positives. Niese had a 7.67 K/9 last year and he can bump that up over 8 this year. Metco is a nice place to pitch. The Mets could win some games. The only real negative I can think of is everything the Mets touch manages to turn to crizzap. If Niese can avoid Mr. Met’s mal de ojo, you could have a sneaky top 25 starter. 2011 Projections: 15-9/3.50/1.28/160 (<–crazy optimistic but whatevs)
Homer Bailey – I don’t think a top 80 starters post is ever complete without Homer Bailey. If Homer is going to break out, this is the year. His xFIP last year was under 4 and his K-rate was above 8 for the first time in his major league career after rocking a solid K-rate in the minors. If he can keep his K-rate over 8 and his walk rate below 3.50 over the course of 170 IP, you’re going to have a top 30 starter. The park he pitches in takes a slight bit of shine off him (4.97 ERA last year at home) and I don’t see anyway he pitches more than 170 innings. Yes, even with Dusty garnering advice from his chewed-up toothpick. 2011 Projections: 12-9/3.90/1.35/135
Chris Narveson – “Hey, Grey, my friend who knows a thing or two about a thing or two really likes Narveson this year. But his ERA was 4.99 last year. Can you explain what he sees in him? Oh, and play that Wu Tang joint.” Narveson had a 3.13 ERA in September. The difference between someone like James McDonald putting together a nice September and Narveson doing it is about three years. Narveson is 29 years old so I tend to think his September was just a good month. If he had a good July and a crappy September, we wouldn’t even be talking about him. But just in case, he’s worth an endgame flyer. 2011 Projections: 9-9/4.15/1.34/160
Felipe Paulino – It’s a shame Ed Wade’s toupee split up Norris and Paulino because they were like peas and carrots. Nice Ks, bonkers walks. The Coors thing doesn’t have me putting Paulino below Norris. Bud’s a bit younger in his development, so I like him better. I.e., there’s a better chance Norris can get his shizz together. So draft Felipe Paulino, but you may drop him after his first start. Oh, and am I the only one that wants to call him Filipino? Yeah, probably. 2011 Projections: 8-6/4.35/1.42/150
