Fantasy Baseball Advice

Ernesto Frieri got the save yesterday in the 11th inning, but Downs came on in the 9th in a tie game.  On one hand, teams hold back their closer in a tie game in away games, in case they get the lead.  On the other hand, sometimes whoever pitches the ninth is the closer.  On a third lesser known hand that is actually a mitten on a doorknob, maybe Downs just came in to face two lefties and stayed in for Gomes.  On a fourth lesser known hand that is actually a hand spraypainted onto a dolphin, there is no fourth lesser known hand spraypainted onto a dolphin; c’mon, man, that’s just cruel.  On a fifth lesser known hand that is actually a giant hand-shaped pinata, The Sciosciapath is managing all of this, so if he sees Frieri get the save, Frieri could be the man.  If Frieri is out there, I’d grab him.  I still think Downs is in the mix.  Walden’s droppable outside of deep leagues.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Marco Estrada – To the DL with a right hip flexor injury.  Chubby Checker just shuddered.

Jonathon Lucroy – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 5th homer.  If Lucroy’s a New Orleans name, I’m drinking the Bourbon!  If Lucroy’s a French name, I’m kissing his momma cause I like cougars!  If Lucroy is short for Lucuriousgeorge, then call me a monkey!  Oh, and I like Lucroy.

Jarrod Parker – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks, to lower his ERA to 3.38.  Sure, he was facing a struggling offensive team in a hitter’s park… But other than the Rangers, that’s his entire division.

Jonathon Niese – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  On Tuesday, the Pirates were beat by Dickey, and the day before they beat Johan (though those seem reversed in more than one way).  Yesterday, the Pirates lost by a nose.  If you throw out The Nose’s two worst starts, he has a 2-something ERA.  What’s that, you can’t throw out those starts?  Tell your leaguemates fiddle faddle, I gave you permission.  In the preseason, I liked Niese, and still do.  Solid Ks, and looks like a number five to six fantasy starter.  Then from the side, he looks like a 2.  Get another nose job, man!

Troy Tulowitzki – 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer in the last three games.  Better hang onto your hatwitzki, Tulo’s about to take his owners for a ride of about 15 homers in the next month, which will end in a 15-day DL stint.

Ricky Romero – 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 baserunners, 7 Ks in Tampa Bay.  Hopefully, he does better when he returns on June 2nd.

Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 14th homer, tying Ryan Zimmerman’s last two years combined.  I will now take Morpheus’s blue pill.

Kevin Millwood – 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 2 Ks to lower his ERA to 3.72.  On April 12th, I compared Millwood to Bartolo, saying, “You know Bartolo Colon with his sneaky 4-ish ERA in a pitchers’ park?  That’s Millwood.  I call them AL-Only guys that you don’t want to own, but someone’s got to.  I never said it was pithy.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Going into yesterday’s game, Millwood had a 4.17 ERA; Colon had 4.09.  Colon has 38 Ks, Millwood has 37.  Colon’s WHIP 1.28; Millwood’s 1.29.  For my next trick, I will pull Ryan Zimmerman’s head out of his ass.

Todd Frazier – 1-for-4 with his 4th homer.  He hadn’t done anything since his 2 homer game, so I dropped Frazier and didn’t even say cheers, but I still like him as a corner man for power in deep leagues if you can handle the low average.

Daniel Bard – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners (4 BBs), 2 Ks.  I wouldn’t own Bard outside of AL-Only leagues.  Grey Albright:  The Chancellor of the Enthusiasm Chequer.

Daniel Nava – 2-for-3 with his 2nd homer.  He’s worth picking up, but he’s nothing but a hot schmotato.  Sorry, I’m a non-beNava’r.  Ouch!  Sorry, just hurt myself trying to squeeze that one in.

Alfredo Aceves – 1 1/3 IP, 0 ER, his 11th save while lowering his ERA to 4.15.  Some of his owners who dropped him after his horrendous April are screaming, “‘Fredo, you betrayed me!”

Scott Podsednik – 2-for-3 with a homer.  I know exactly how the Red Sox feel today.  Last week I picked up Brian Dozier and that day he hit a home run.  Yay!  Then he went 0-for-a-week.  Don’t revel in it, Red Sox, it wears off.

Nick Johnson – 2-for-3, 3 RBIs and 2 homers.  Or 3 homers by Scott Podsednick Johnson, if you play in a Sniglet league.

Xavier Avery – 2-for-5 with a steal.  I’m guessing Xavery is gonna be in Friday’s Buy/Sell.  We’ll have to wait to see what Pre-Holiday Weekend Grey’s got in store.

Matt Wieters – 0-for-1 as he sat out.  His average is down to .238.  Yikes, someone call The Roto Rooter Man, Wieters’s doodie has clogged up my roto teams.

Andy Pettitte – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Andy’s having a much better time over the last few weeks than his former comroidre.  I wonder if they video chat.  “Roger?” “Please call me Rocket.”  And they talk about needles and shizz.  On a side note, I was talking to a friend yesterday and her roommate, who is a guy, was video chatting with another dude.  Is that gay?  There’s nothing wrong with it, if it is.  But is it?  I mean, I don’t need to see my guy friends even when they’re in the same room as me.  Matter of fact, I prefer it that way.  Talk to me while you watch TV; we are all good.  And…tangent!  So, Pettitte’s been better than I expected since his return.  He’s also faced the Reds (terrible vs. lefties), the Royals and the M’s.  The Royals aren’t hideous, but I still don’t trust him.  His ballpark isn’t good, his division’s tough and he wasn’t even any good when he retired.  Now he’s good?  I ain’t buying in mixed leagues.

Alex Rodriguez – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and 2 homers.  Now, A-Rod is definitely a guy-on-guy video chatter.

Brett Gardner – Had a setback with his elbow and won’t hit off a tee until Monday.  How’d this go from a minor 15-day DL stint to we’re probably not seeing him for two months total?  Jesus Monterochrist!

Eric Hosmer – 3-for-4 and a steal (which is actually impressive vs. Pettitte).  This proves my theory.  All some players need is me berating them.  Now, get it, Hosmer.  Get it!

Lance Lynn – 6 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners, 3 Ks.  We ended our month and a half torrid relationship yesterday.  I might’ve been so annoyed with Big Z, that I dumped Lynn, but I don’t regret it.  With 11 baserunners, he was lucky to only give up 3 earned.  If you don’t have better options on waivers, I’d bench him for his next start.

Carlos Beltran – Hit his 14th homer yesterday.  Ten more than Pujols.  Cust crazy.

Drew Sutton – 2-for-4 with 2 RBIs as he hit cleanup.  After the game, Maddon was asked what he’s thinking with the lineup card.  He said, “When I think Drew Sutton, I think Don Sutton.  When I think Don Sutton, I picture how his afro was so beautifully salt-and-pepper.  When I think salt-and-pepper, I think about mashed potatoes.  When I think about mashed potatoes, I think of the mess I make when I start mashing.  When I think of that mess from mashing, I think of the cleanup.  So when I think of Drew Sutton, I think of mashing at cleanup.”  When asked why Carlos Pena at leadoff, he replied, “Good OBP.”

James Shields – 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 10 Ks.  If Shields was in the NL, I’d be on him like white on the albino kid who was in my 10th grade homeroom.  He seared his image on my retinas!  Does my bias against Shields make any sense, i.e., is he terrible against his AL East opponents?  Nah.  But at least I admit when I’m sitting on a bias angle.

Will Venable – 3-for-5 and a triple short of a cycle.  He was this week’s Creeper.

Carlos Zambrano – 5 IP, 7 ER.  Was he due for a blow up or is it because I picked him up for this start?  Probably the latter.  FMFBBL.

Cole Hamels – 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 8 Ks vs. the Nats.  After the game, Hamels said he wanted to teach Bryce Harper basic math so he let him go 1-for-3.  Figure out your batting average now, punk!

Chris Sale – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners (2 hits), 6 Ks vs. the Twins.  Luckily, that closer experiment only lasted 36 hours and his elbow problems only lasted 72 hours.  I’m not joking when I say sometimes I think I know too much.  Say you owned Sale and were in Fiji for the last three weeks.  After you were done visiting Superfly’s birth home, you’d return to see Chris Sale threw another great start, just like you left him.  Could’ve Magoo’d Sale the whole time and had no stress.  Eh, what fun is that?  Fantasy Baseball:  When there’s not enough stress in my real life.

Addison Reed – Robin Ventura officially named Reed the closer.  He said he read on the internet that Reed was the closer for the last two weeks, and it sounded like a good idea.

Alex Rios – Homered last night.  If you’re wondering why, it’s cause I just dropped him.  That’s why.  No other reason.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Guess what Wandy’s ERA is.  Don’t Google it.  Guess.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.  *scratches butt, taps finger, stirs coffee with different finger*  His ERA is 2.14!

J.D. Martinez – 3-for-4, 3 RBIs.  He got ice cold for a while (hitting below .150 in May), but last night might be a sign he’s coming around.  Definitely would watch him.

J.J. Putz – Gibson confirmed that Putz was still their closer.  That means the over/under for him losing the job is at 4 days.

Krispie Young – Diamondbacks are saying they might’ve rushed him back, so they let him watch from the bench yesterday as they scored 11 runs.  Holy sit!

Adrian Beltre – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 9th homer, facing his old team, the Mariners.  He obviously hit this homer just to say, “It’s not me, it’s you.”

Torii Hunter – Should return early next week.  I bet he regrets teaching his kid the importance of dotting both I’s.

Last year, the Buy/Sell brought you such brilliant ideas as “Grady Sizemore is gonna bounce back big time!” and “I don’t believe a concussion can knock a player out for a full year… Can I get a Morneau?!”  Buy/Sell, “You know, I don’t point all of your crappy suggestions… Vernon Wells as a sleeper?  2003 called and said it wants its sleeper back.  You’re lucky I even returned this year.  A.J. Mass was talking about buying me an acre of land in Kentucky and letting me run around with all of his stolen base draft picks.”  So, this is the first Buy/Sell of the season.  Every Friday there will be a new one.  Buy/Sell, “Not if we continue to get along like this.”  Right now Eric Thames is owned in 1.3% of ESPN leagues.  I guess I’m a one-point-three percenter because I just picked him up in one of my leagues.  Let’s see what we know for sure about Thames:  A) He’s the starting left fielder for a team that will score a lot of runs.  B) If Lind’s back continues to hurt him (I hope not, but being realistic) and Edwin Encarnacion goes back to being Encrapcion, then Thames could bat as high as cleanup.  C) There’s no C.  D) He hit 12 homers in 95 games last year.  E) He could steal 5 to 7 bases and, if he can steal 5 to 7 bases, he could steal 10 bases.  F)  See C.  G) He’s 25 years old.  H) I’m kinda stretching to get to Z, but I don’t think I’ll ever make it.  I) He had a great OBP in the minors.  J) He does strike out a lot though.  Hmm, that’s not a positive.  K-P) Power is a lot harder to find on waivers.  He’s got it.  Q) Bert.  R) I ranked Thames 57th for outfielders.  Above some schmohawks like Kubel, Revere, Span, Carlos Lee, etc.  S) Etc.  T) Etc.  U-W) Etc.  Y) Cause.  Z) Whew.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in 2012 fantasy baseball:

BUY

Lorenzo Cain – Let’s see, Carlos Quentin is owned in 38% of ESPN leagues and Cain is owned in 28%, but only 95% of teams have drafted already, but 60% of those public ESPN teams have already abandoned their team and joined a Yahoo league instead because ESPN is a piece of crap roster managing site…  I’m sure glad ESPN made it easy to find the Transactions Log for teams.  It’s much more important to have Referenda accessible, right?  More like Reeferenda, as in what they were smoking when they designed their fantasy site.   What does this have to do with Cain…Sugar!?  Nothing really, but I’ve talked about him enough, just pick him up.

Jose Tabata – He’s only owned in 11% of leagues and that’s actually dropped in the last week.  Did I miss something about him?  Why’s he being dropped? For s’s and g’s?  In that case, drop Denard Span for s’s and g’s and pick up Tabata.

Zack Cozart – I can’t imagine who’s reading this doesn’t own Cozart, so I’m writing this for everyone who’s not reading.  Hey, gooftard, go back to ESPN!

Chris Parmelee – Supposed to be the Twins starting first baseman.  This sounds crackers to me.  Not sure how Mauer, Doumit and Morneau are all gonna see 1st base and DH time.  Could leave Doumit severely crunched for playing time.  Outside of AL-Only leagues, I wouldn’t go near Parmelee. There’s not a lot of upside (maybe 15 homers), he’s playing his home games in Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome and Doumit/Morneau/Mauer will all steal time from him.

Josh Donaldson – The starting 3rd baseman for the Oakland A’s is… Josh Donaldson?  Colby’s brother?  Is he as bonkers as Russell’s nephew?  Yeah, Donaldson has about as much upside as a case of hemorrhoids — hey, at least I get to rub my ass with ointment!  But Donaldson has catcher eligibility.  Probably the best second catcher in a 2-catcher league you’re gonna find for under five bucks at your auction.

Jeff Samardzija – The only thing holding him back from being successful is his control. So far this spring, he has 16 Ks and one walk. Keith Law commented this is the best he’s ever seen him, then he tweeted some pompous thing about Russian literature and coq au vin.  It’s worth an add on Samardzija, but I’m not sure I’d start him his first time out.

Francisco Liriano – Seriously, kill me right now.  Ugh.  F-Liriano, indeed.  But he is owned in less than 50% leagues and when Ricky Nolasco is owned in more, that’s not copacetic.

Tommy Milone – In the same ballpark as Brandon McCarthy (literally!) and Stauffer (not!), shouldn’t be great for Ks, but could provide nice WHIP support like Jiffy Lube.

Lance Lynn – Will fill in for Carpenter in the early part of the season and put a country-western album in August, “Lance Lynn Sings:  My WHIP Drives Around No Heartaches.”

Jonathon Niese – Here’s what I said in the top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, “(Niese) had a K-rate of 7.89 last year and showed in the minors that is about right and could be even a little higher.  Also, he had a slightly off BABIP and poor LOB%, so he wasn’t really a near-four and half ERA pitcher, but probably three-quarters of a run better.  All these good vibes about Niese make me want to do my Grind workout.”  And that’s me quoting me!

Jonathan Broxton – Broxton’s got back, and saves apparently.  Yes, you should grab him.  SAGNOF!

Henry Rodriguez – Could get saves, will get Ks, could hurt your WHIP.  6 of one, half dozen of another and six of a negative.  That’s 6, which is not a prime number.  Oh, no!

Brad Lidge – Should be first to get saves in Washington.  Not to throw a bucket of cold urine on Storen owners, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Lidge gets more saves than Storen this year.

SELL

Chris Carpenter – I don’t know, I guess I wouldn’t drop him.  I guess I’d DL him if I already drafted him against my advice.  But I sure as heckfire wouldn’t draft him now, if you haven’t drafted yet.

Kendrys Morales – People are really excited about him right now.  I heard the other day he saved a kitten from a tree…By ripping said tree from the ground and gently placing it down next to the kitten’s baby mama.  It’s a moving story.  As discussed in our fantasy baseball podcast, Morales isn’t going to see enough at-bats in 12 team mixed leagues.  I wouldn’t drop Morales out right because of the previously aforementioned enthusiasm that I already mentioned aforementionedly.  I would see if I could get something for him in a trade.  Maybe a cheap Donkeycorn.

Mark Trumbo – Guys and four girl readers, where is he playing?  The Sciosciapath said he’d get 40 games at 3rd.  That’s not over the course of 40 games, that’s over the course of the season.  Where is he playing the other 120 games?  Angels playing with two DHs?

Daniel Murphy – He’s owned in 92% of ESPN leagues.  A guy with 12 homer upside?!  I feel like Matthew Modine in Short Cuts saying, “He said, ‘You want to have a go at it?’”  A guy with 12 homer upside?!  Two homers a month?!  This is Grey’s brain.  This is Grey’s brain baffled.

Drew Storen – Splash!  That was the bucket of cold urine.  A closer who can’t throw in Spring Training because of arm troubles is, um, trouble.  I wouldn’t trade Storen for an opened bag of candy corn from Halloween ’95, but I’d explore options.

Ok, so you’re going to ask yourself ‘has Razzball turned into a Perez Hilton site?’  Why should you care that Jonathan Niese got a nose job because Carlos ‘Ricky’ Beltran made fun of him?  At first, I didn’t really care either but then I learned a bit more about the procedure from this article:

Niese said he has always had trouble breathing through his nose, which he felt hindered him during cardiovascular exercise…The doctor conducted a scan that showed Niese’s nasal passageways were obstructed, but that they could be reconstructed to facilitate airflow…The difference in his breathing now, Niese said, is like “night and day.”

Alright, so he can jazzercise a bit longer than he could before and doesn’t have to wear breathe right strips to do it.  Good for him.  But then I started doing a little investigating into his splits and found some interesting numbers with regards to his first 4 innings of work.  Since becoming a full-time starter in 2010, his first inning through the fourth inning has given him a 3.87 ERA to go with a 3.85 K:BB ratio, good for an 8.48 K/9.  Meanwhile, his work in the 5th and 6th innings left him at a 4.65 ERA to go with a 1.40 K:BB ratio and a 6.25 K/9.  Even if we can reasonably expect a pitcher to wear down by the 6th inning, those K:BB ratios are quite drastic.  Given his xFIP has been 3.80 and 3.28 in 2010 and 2011, respectively, I believe we have multiple factors that could lead to a breakout 2012 campaign for Niese.  Even Ricky Nolasco - a pitcher with a similar ADP and the bane of Razzballer’s everywhere despite being a peripheral darling – has maintained a K:BB ratio above 3 for his career in the 5th and 6th inning.  I’m willing to believe that Niese simply never learned how to breathe through his eyelids a la Nuke LaLoosh and is finally going to get over that 5th and 6th inning hump.  Regardless of the Citi field walls moving in, I’m willing to buy in that Grey’s line in the Top 80 starters is his base for the year, with good room for upside.

And with that, this is ONC from Deep League Thoughts reporting for TMZ. Now let’s go find out which baseball career Rihanna will try to ruin next… Back to you, Harvey Levin!

This is almost the end of the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  With these top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names that I’m really gunning for on my teams… My deeper teams.  On last year’s top 80, there were a few guys that shot up the rankings (Hellickson, Anibal, Garza and Zimmermann), so I imagine a lot of you won’t need most of the names on this list, but there will be some.  Now humor me.  There’s tiers and projections mentioned for everyone.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:

61. Brandon McCarthy – This tier started in the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier ends at Peavy.  I called this tier, “Holy crap, there were a lot of starters I didn’t like in the top 60 starters post.  Let’s see some names I like.  Please.”  The first two guys in this tier could’ve been called, “Young pitchers who don’t strike out many that you should start at home.”  McCarthy’s ERA at home was 2.65 and 1.11 WHIP.  As said two sentences ago, McCarthy doesn’t strike out a whole lot of guys.  Two Sentences Ago, “Why don’t you come up with your own points?”  2012 Projections:  8-11/3.50/1.17/140

62. Tim Stauffer – Last year Stauffer had a home ERA of 2.57 and a 1.13 WHIP.  I’ll give this to you nice and simple like Minnie Pearl would’ve wanted it.  Stauffer is a Hodgepadre.  Start him at home and sit him on the road.  He did have 94 1/3 IP innings at home last year, so you’re talking about a top tier reliever’s ratio stats if you hold firm when to start him.  2012 Projections:  8-10/3.80/1.24/135

63. Ted Lilly – I could’ve made a sub-tier within this tier calling these last three guys, “Pitchers that I refuse to learn from no matter how many times they burn me.”  I really believe last year we saw the beginning of the end of Lilly.  Fading Lilly, if you like pithy comments that sound like sushi restaurants.  There’s some arguments to be made that that (stutterer!) is incorrect.  He did come on in the 2nd half (2.94 ERA, 8+ K/9).  If you believe his 1st half (4.79 ERA) was just an aberration on the that-ain’t-the-real-thing tip, then I could see grabbing Lilly late.  For his price, it’s probably worth it.  2012 Projections:  11-8/3.85/1.18/160

64. Scott Baker – For those of you that can’t wait to read the end of this post just to comment that Lilly and Baker’s projections look better than Stauffer and McCarthy so why do I have them below?  Don’t.  Lilly is on the downswing of his career and Baker can’t stay healthy.  Take an upside flyer with Stauffer or McCarthy before these guys.  Those of you who didn’t read this blurb and commented about the order of the rankings, you’re not reading this either.  Too bad, I would’ve had you say hello to your mother for me.  Hey now!  2012 Projections:  11-7/3.65/1.19/160

65. Jake Peavy – If he can stay healthy, he could be valuable.  Unfortunately, my man can’t stay healthy.  Grey, you have no faith in medicine, The White Stripes.  If I were the type to say completely unsubstantiated claims with no factual evidence, I’d say Peavy can’t stay healthy because he used to do steroids.  I would never say that though.  I’m way above that!  Hopefully, there’s no my-momma-didn’t-name-me-that scandal with the reveal that he’s really Jack Peavy and actually 78 years old, but that would jive with all of his health problems.  For those worried about the integrity of our great game, I do think the name scandals will soon end with all players selling their naming rights to companies.  Now pitching for the New York Yankees… Saran Wrap!  2012 Projections:  10-8/3.75/1.21/130

66. Ryan Vogelsong – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Jackson.  I call this tier, “You may get a number three fantasy starter or you may get someone similar to Nadir Bupkus.”  Last year didn’t really make sense.  Not in general, unless you’re trying to figure why you like baseball yet weren’t that crazy about Moneyball.  I think you had to not like baseball to love Moneyball.  But I was referring to last year not making sense for Vogelsong.  He’s like 40 years old (34) and he just put up his best season, even though his peripherals (pitch speed, where the pitches were, etc.) didn’t get better from the last time he was in the States.  Maybe he can repeat it.  More likely, you’re going to get a good spot starter when he faces the Padres, Dodgers and some other weaker offenses.  2012 Projections:  10-9/3.75/1.26/140

67. Jonathon Niese – Last year, his ERA was 4.40 and now the Mets are moving in the fences and constructing a giant Madoff head to blow hot air out to right field.  So why is Niese in a positive tier?  Thanks, clunky expository question!  He had a K-rate of 7.89 last year and showed in the minors that is about right and could be even a little higher.  Also, he had a slightly off BABIP and poor LOB%, so he wasn’t really a near-four and half ERA pitcher, but probably three-quarters of a run better.  All these good vibes about Niese make me want to do my Grind workout.  2012 Projections:  9-10/3.75/1.32/160

68. Bud Norris – You can’t predict wins.  You shouldn’t even try.  It is totally pointless.  But since I had a “Totally Pointless” college degree this is right up my alley.  You are not going to get wins with Norris.  You will get some walks and nice Ks.  I kinda want Norris on every team.  Might even draft him on my AL-Only keeper team for when the Astros realign.  2012 Projections:  7-9/3.80/1.32/190

69. Mike Leake – His ground ball percentage was solid, walks were dropped by over one per game and his strikeouts increased (though not to a rate that is drool-inducing).  If Leake can avoid dribblers through the vas deferns, he should have some success.  2012 Projections:  13-8/3.75/1.22/135

70. Ryan Dempster – I’m tentatively liking Dempster this year.  His 4.80 ERA last year was H to the ideous, but he did have a 3.70 xFIP and a 8.50 K/9.  I’ve seen worse stats.  Some of the guys above him, for instance, they have worse stats.  I don’t know the intricacies of his contract and I don’t think you should draft someone in March with the hope they’re traded, but wouldn’t shock me to see Dempster on a pennant contender before 2012 is through.  Maybe he’ll go to the Padres, if the Yankees change their name to the Padres.  2012 Projections:  12-8/3.90/1.33/190

71. Edwin Jackson – Signed yesterday with the Nats, naturally.  Looks like all the Nats needed to become a contender was to get rid of Bowden.  Great addition for the Nats’ rotation.  For fantasy, it’s a’ight.  Earlier in his career, he was better in the AL than the NL, but now that he’s matured I think it was an immaturity thing.  Funny how that works.  Best case scenario is a 3.50 ERA and kinda icky WHIP.  Worst case scenario is a 4 and a half ERA and icky WHIP.  Speaking of which, I was thinking about what’s the best best case scenario of recent times and I have to think it’s The Jersey Shore.  I can’t help watch the opening and think about how when they made that title sequence they all were probably glad to just be employed by a t-shirt shop, MTV almost axed the show before it started and none of them really had much chance for a future unless you count success by the number of acquired STDs.  Now they’re all millionaires and it’s laughable that they would work at a t-shirt shop.  Of course, the worst worst case scenario would have to be leaving the show a’la Angelina and not reaping any of its benefits.  What a stunod.  2012 Projections:  11-10/3.80/1.35/160

72. Hiroki Kuroda – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Collmenter.  I call this tier, “Solid, but unspectacular.”  See, I will draft solid with a chance for spectacular.  I’ll even take a chance on very risky with a chance for spectacular.  But “Solid, but unspectacular” gets drafted around the time I want to take flyers, so I don’t bother with this tier.  When you’re this late in a draft, it makes no sense to draft a guy like Kuroda, Danks, Buehrle, etc.  Like any investment, they’re the last one in and first one out.  It’s a shame that Kuroda was picked up by the Yankees.  When he was on the Dodgers, he was a solid back end of your fantasy rotation starter that no one ever reached for.  For whatever reason, everyone looked the other way even though his career ERA is under 3.50, WHIP’s under 1.20, walks are low and his K/9 last year was over 7.  Oh, well.  I wouldn’t draft him with your fantasy team in 2012.  AL East and The Stadium They Built Across The Street From The House Ruth Built is two negatives that don’t equal a positive.  2012 Projections:  12-9/3.90/1.24/150

73. John Danks – I’ll admit I’m probably too down on Danks.  He’s the very definition of solid, but unspectacular.  A big issue with solid but unspectacular that I didn’t mention above.  If for some reason you get less than solid, you get Danks’s 2011:  4.33 ERA, 135 Ks and 1.34 WHIP.  That’s not even solid.  At 27 years old, he should revert back to solid, but unspectacular.  2012 Projections:  9-10/3.75/1.28/150

74. Mark Buehrle – Gets wins, mid-3 ERA, lots of innings… What’s not to like?  Oh, yeah, he strikes out about as much as Mystery in a college bar on “Ladies drink for free” night.  2012 Projections:  14-10/3.70/1.28/100

75. Ivan Nova – With a 3.70 ERA, he won 16 games last year in 28 games started.  Basically, Blyleven would’ve been a first ballot Hall of Famer on the Yankees.  If you’re chasing wins, I could see going with Nova, but chasing wins is a losing proposition. (<–Turn of a phrase point!)  2012 Projections:  14-8/4.00/1.33/110

76. Gavin Floyd – I’ve tied Floyd to Danks in my rankings for as long as I can remember, which sounds like a nerdy version of the Goodfellas voiceover.  Floyd is a tad under Danks because of his age.  There’s a better chance of Danks exceeding his projections than Floyd, but they’re both solid, but… Well, you know.  2012 Projections:  9-11/4.00/1.26/155

77. R.A. Dickey – I don’t like Dickey, not that there’s anything right with that.  He’s totally blown away my projections the last two years, but I can’t trust a knuckleballer.  I don’t like when I’m relying on a pitcher that has no idea where the ball is going.  I’m sure he’s used to the hate.  Can’t be easy going through puberty with a name like Dickey and being a knuckleballer.  2012 Projections:  10-9/3.75/1.27/130

78. Josh Collmenter – You thought I didn’t like Dickey?  Try my dislike of Collmenter on for size.  Too snug?  That’s cause you have both of your arms in the same sleeve.  Collmenter had a 5+ K-rate and a 4.18 xFIP.  No Ks there is a than, but no thans.  2012 Projections:  8-10/4.25/1.24/110

79. Francisco Liriano – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until here.  I call this tier, “Screw you, Liriano.”  He got very lucky last year.  No, not with his FIP or xFIP or BABIP or men left on base or with runs scored for.  He got lucky I didn’t kill him.  2012 Projections:  11-11/4.30/1.35/155

80. Brett Cecil – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Volquez.  I call this tier, “You’ll probably drop most of these guys by mid-April and may not even have the nads to start them once on your team, but you may as well take a flyer.”  (The projections in this tier are optimistic.)  I saw one ‘pert didn’t rank Cecil in his top 100 starters.  I thought that was odd.  He’s only 26 years old.  Then I looked at mock draft results and he wasn’t anywhere.  I saw Joel Pineiro.  I saw Jason Hammel.  I even saw Javier Vazquez.  He retired.  We’re all that done with a 26-year-old pitcher who was being drafted last year in the top 200?  I don’t want to point any fingers, but you — yeah, you.  Don’t look behind you. — were excited about drafting Cecil last year.  Nothing in his stats say bounce back, but between him or Pineiro or a guy that retired, I’m going with Cecil.  2012 Projections:  12-9/4.00/1.30/145

After the top 80 starters, there’s a lot of names, but here’s some that stand out:

Homer Bailey - With a career ERA of 4.89, I’ve warded off Homer to use two of the better father names in the history of television.  Now, I find myself seeing a scenario where I could draft him very late.  His walk rate last year was more than one walk off his previous year.  His K-rate fell a bit, but it’s still over 7.  His xFIP was 3.77 and his team should win some games.  Bailey is long overdue for a breakout.  I’m saying sleeper and grab him late.  That’s my story and I’m sticking to it until he defecates all over my ERA.  2012 Projections:  12-9/3.70/1.28/130

Chris Sale – If I had to, and I probably do, write a sleeper post about Sale or Bard, it’s a no-brainer.  It’s Sale all the way.  Sale’s only real question mark is how many innings will the Pale Hose throw him.  (BTW, if I was writing newspaper headlines in 1919, I would’ve wrote “Paint the White Hose Black.” If there’s any time travelers reading this, take it, it’s yours.)  I think Sale sees about 125 innings.  2012 Projections:  8-8/3.50/1.24/130

Daniel Bard – When the Sawx first announced Bard would start, here’s what I said, “The Sawx are toying with the idea that Daniel Bard should be in the rotation rather than as the closer.  To incorrectly quote Gordon Gekko, “That’s a toy with fleas.”  As a starter in the minor leagues, his ERA was 7.08 and walked 78 hitters in 75 innings.  Granted, this was early on in his minor league career, but I don’t see the Sawx taking a pitcher that is actually succeeding as a reliever and stretching him out to fail.  Then again, their rotation isn’t exactly five deep.  Hopefully Daniel doesn’t stay *pinkie to mouth* Bard from the bullpen.  Or should I say bullpun.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I still think the Red Sox make a last minute move to keep Bard in the bullpen and acquire another starter.  2012 Projections:  9-7/3.70/1.22/160

Brad Peacock – I already went over my Brad Peacock fantasy.  It’s January Grey’s favorite post.   2012 Projections:  9-8/3.60/1.30/170

Edinson Volquez – If he gets 200 innings, he will strikeout 200 hitters.  Look at the rest of this post and try to find another guy K’ing 200.  So why isn’t he ranked higher?  Well, there’s this little problem with him walking people like it’s his job.  It’s not his job.  If that’s getting lost in the translation, someone should tell him that is not his job.  Yo camino no trabajar!  2012 Projections:  8-12/3.75/1.33/200

Ricky Nolasco – This is the last tier.  This tier is called, “I didn’t forget these guys.  I’m just not drafting them.”  Nolasco hasn’t had an ERA under 4.50 in 3 years, but if you’re playing in a league that counts K/BB rates or guys that underperform, then by all means go with Nolasco.  2012 Projections:  12-9/4.25/1.29/150

Wade Davis – He had strikeout numbers in the minors, and I think those return from wherever they went, but I’m not drafting him on the assumption they will.  Could be a nice during-season-pickup if he gets his shizz together.  2012 Projections:  10-10/4.15/1.35/115

Carlos Zambrano – Ozzie will either bond with Zambrano and have him produce his best year since the mid-naughts or their personalities together will become so combustible that Little Havana will break from the union and form the 51st state with Ozzie becoming Supreme Leader of Little Havana and having Zambrano executed.  My money’s on the latter.  2012 Projections:  11-10/4.10/1.35/130

Johan Santana – The Mets are hoping to get 25 starts out of Johan.  The Mets are saying he’s a question mark for Opening Day.  The Mets pronounce players ready to return usually six months before they’re back on the field and they’re saying bad things already about Johan.  Instead of drafting Johan, if you’re into torturing yourself, try meeting up with random people from Craigslist’s Missed Connections.  Here’s one, “You didn’t tan, your freckles merged.  Now I want our bodies to.  I saw you at the Jiffy Lube on Tuesday.  I can’t wait another 3 months or 3,000 miles.”  2012 Projections:  7-5/3.75/1.22/80 (in 120 innings)

Jair Jurrjens has a xFIP of 3.64 and a K-rate of 5.23.  Sounds like you should brave the trade winds with Jar-Jar.  Or maybe I should say, “Wash that Jurrjens right outta your Jair!”  Okay, breathe, Grey, you got puns, I get it. You’re right, random italicized voice, lost my shizz there for a second.  Jurrjens’s K-rate is the lowest of his career and it wasn’t that good to begin with.  He did have one of these lucky years before (2009) when he left men on and had some luck with his BABIP, but he was K’ing a little over one more batter per nine innings then.  I can’t imagine Jurrjens keeps anywhere near the ERA he currently has (2.13) with his down peripherals, which was not a Kelsey Grammer movie.  So don’t make the same mistake as George Lucas and fall in love with Jar-Jar.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Charlie Blackmon – Is the vicious homers?  Nope.  Is the haircut?  Nope.  Is it the shoes?  Nope.  Is it the extra long shorts?  Nope.  Is it the short socks?  Nope.  It’s gotta be the steals!

Jordan Schafer – Sticking with the retro Nike feel, I’m mentioning Jordan.  He’s currently hitting, but, in the big picture, he’s just okay.  Jordan is His Fair-ness.

Justin Ruggiano – I wonder if Sam Fuld would pick up Ruggiano on his fantasy team.  On one hand, he knows what it’s like to be a hot schmotato and how fast they can go cold.  On the other hand, Ruggiano is stealing his playing time.  On the third lesser known hand that is actually a foot wearing a mitten, Ruggiano was much more interesting in the minors leagues than Fuld.  (BTW, I think every baseball player should have to participate in a public fantasy league.  I’d love to see who would actually own themselves, what pitchers hitters would own and vice versa.  Jason Kubel is coming up to bat vs. Brandon Morrow.  You may not own either but after Morrow’s last start Kubel dropped him in his league and now Morrow beans him.  Intrigue!)

Travis Snider – Supposedly, he’s going to get recalled in a few weeks.  Rudy and I were talking over IM about how some guys are just such a tease.  Everyone rushes out to grab Snider every time he gets called up.  Do you forget why he was back on waivers to begin with?  He’s okay as a flyer, but I’m not going crazy with him until he actually shows something.  I’m turning over a new, more conservative leaf.  Now how about Dee Gordon?!

Alexi Casilla – Forget everything you know about Alexi Casilla…Okay, forget that you don’t know anything about Alexi Casilla.  He’s hitting over .400 in the last week and is on pace for 25 steals. (As if you’re gonna keep him on your team all year!  Hahahahahaha….  Mid-haha I totally forgot what I was laughing at.)

Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Two Twins middle infielders?  Um… Yay?  I think Nishioka will probably end up with more value than Casilla, but he might take a bit longer to get going.

Dustin Ackley – Just went over my Dustin Ackley fantasy.  I wrote it while trying to avoid eye contact in my gym’s locker room.

Jemile Weeks – Ackley is gonna have more buzz in fantasy leagues, but I imagine him and Weeks are pretty much the same thing this year.

Eduardo Nunez – If you had Jeter (did you draft him hoping he’d get you laid?) or need a quick one week fill-in, Nunez has speed and some slight power.

Jonathon Niese – For those with a short term memory — hey, who said that?! — I liked Niese in the preseason.  A 3 and a half ERA and solid K’s doesn’t seem to be that farfetched.

Tim Stauffer – This will sound rhetorical, but I’d take an answer.  How does a guy go unowned in so many leagues when he pitches his home games in a stadium where the center field fence has the infinity sign on it?

Andrew Miller – To continue from Stauffer’s blurb… Yet, if Miller pitches well vs. the Padres his ownership will skyrocket.  Miller who’s failed so many times in the major leagues and isn’t even guaranteed a rotation spot.

Jeff Baker – As long as the Cubs sit him vs righties, he’s only an add in deep, daily leagues where you can swap him in and out.

Dayan Viciedo – Kenny Williams said Viciedo is finally ready for the majors.  Ozzie said the same but put a hashtag on it.  He’s hit 10 homers in 62 games in the minors and his 3rd base eligibility makes him immediately ownable.  Though I would like to know where he’s going to play.  If he starts every day at 3rd base, I like him a lot, but he can’t play 3rd.  If he’s off the bench here and there in the outfield, then belch.  If the Sox bench Pierre and play Viciedo, then giddy up.

Luke Scott – Know how Miguel Olivo’s never happy hitting just one home run?  That goes doubly for Luke Scott.  BTW, doubly might be one of my top five favorite words.  When you say it, it’s hard to not sound drunk.

SELL

Michael Young – His counting stats don’t look terrible, but 3 home runs and 4 steals prorated over the whole year sounds Crapolanco-ish.  I wouldn’t drop him, but I’d sweeten a deal with Young and just grab an MI off waivers in leagues where that’s possible.

Josh Beckett – At some point, he’s going to look human again.  It may not be today…Well, it’s definitely not today because he’s not pitching.  It may not be tomorrow…Well, it won’t be tomorrow.  Not pitching then either.  It may not be until July, but at some point it’ll happen.  Don’t believe me, ask Ubaldo about his 1st half last year.

Joe Mauer – Welcome back, Joe!  Now trade him immediately.  Word out of Minnesota is Mauer will be sitting in a beach chair behind the plate to avoid crouching.  I just jumped out of a DeLorean and I have the big news from next year’s baseball preseason.  Bud Selig and Ed Wade switch toupees to raise money for lupus with a fundraising drive called, Raise the Wolf.  The 2nd biggest story:  after another down year in 2011 for Mauer, he will play primarily first base in 2012.  Then everyone will go crazy for a 12 homer hitting 1st baseman thinking he’ll be that much better if he doesn’t have to catch.  Well, that’s for another day (or year).  For this year, Mauer’s all name value.