Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

There are so many Tommy Boy quotes that I can manipulate to start this post, so you choose which one…

a) I can get a good look at Performance by sticking my head up BABIP’s a**, but I’d rather take xBABIP’s word for it.

b) I write fantasy baseball posts for the American working man, because that’s who I am and that’s who I care about.

c)  You: Prince Fielder, Hmmmm, he should get better.”

      Me: “This guy is batting .231, which is actually backed up because of the gross groundball rate (11+% jump) and hitting into the shift with a sense of urgency, and all you can say is, Hmmmm, he should get better?”

d) The season is drivin’ along, la-de-da, woo. And you have Justin Morneau batting .338. And then you look at your team. Tires go EEEEEEEEE! Whoa, that was close.

Now let’s see what happens if you have Prince Fielder on your team… You’re drivin’ along, Tires go EEEEEEEE! I CAN’T STOP! “Oh my God, I’m burning alive! And this isn’t a fire sale! No! I can’t feel my legs!” Here comes the meat wagon. And the medic gets out and says, “Oh my God”. New guy’s around the corner puking his guts out…

…Whichever quote you go with, if you own Fielder then consider yourself the new guy puking his guts out. This post is the meat wagon.

Prior to the season, I gave some face to BABIP by looking at power and speed scores in conjunction with their balls in play data. Now it’s time to look at whose been lucky and vice versa.

Using the same updated xBABIP formula, here are a few guys within the top-35 likely to drop-off from a BABIP perspective: Tyler Flowers, Justin Upton, Alexei Ramirez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and perhaps even Eric Hosmer, Yasiel Puig, Torii Hunter, Xander Bogaerts and naturally Charlie Blackmon, although he doesn’t fall into my red flag category. He’s only 27 points above his xBABIP. Colorado is probably the main effect here, but he’s also got a solid power-speed combo. Let’s look at a few other Colorado BABIPs vs. xBABIPs:

  1. Charlie Blackmon: .336 BABIP vs. .309 xBABIP 42nd highest BABIP differential
  2. Nolan Arenado: .325 BABIP vs. .303 xBABIP = 47th highest BABIP differential
  3. Troy Tulowitzki: .402 BABIP vs. .363 xBABIP = 27th highest BABIP differential
  4. Carlos Gonzalez: .308 BABIP vs. .313 xBABIP (bada$$) meaning we can actually expect a small rebound!
  5. Justin Morneau: .333 BABIP vs. .299 xBABIP = 33rd highest BABIP differential

To back-up Blackmon’s success, along with Brian Dozier, he made it not too far down my ‘BABIP with Face’ Score List prior to the season. I do know what I’m talking about.

On the other side of the equation, here are guys within the top-30 BABIP differentials likely to rebound:

C- Carlos Santana

1B- Allen Craig

2B- Jedd Gyorko

3B- Nick Castellanos

SS- Elvis Andrus

MI- Brian Dozier, which is awesome considering the counting stats he’s been providing (on pace for 40hr/55sb at the moment)

CI- Chase Headley

OF- Allen Craig

A few other rebounds worth noting:

One of my favs, Freddie Freeman, actually has a xBABIP approaching .400 again, so we can actually expect a rebound! Jose Reyes and Jason Kipnis are two middle infielders likely to rebound, when and if healthy. Mike Moustakas, Brad Miller, Dan Uggla and Khris Davis are also on this list, but I can’t trust them due to their contact and/or balls in play issues.

But where or where is Prince Fielder  on this list? At the time I prepared the below matrix (5/9), Prince Fielder’s actual BABIP is .250. His expected (x)BABIP is .318, however even the xBABIP formula has its limitations. It only takes into account the Balls In Play breakdown (% of balls hit on the ground/in the air/over the fence/etc.) and not how hard balls are hit or a hitter’s speed. While Prince Fielder is #40 of 265 on my likely to rebound list, he winds up at #305 of 439 on Jeff Zimmerman’s April xBABIP list that incorporates hard hit% and speed scores (I believe the hard hit% isn’t public knowledge). It’s also worth noting that my list doesn’t involve defensive shifts and the effect it has on xBABIP: Jeff Zimmerman also noted that Prince Fielder has hit into the most infield shifts (about a 5.5 shift vs. no shift ratio). Seriously, the effect is real and I would field(er) offers for him.

I’m not going to stamp a guarantee on this post to make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside. If you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for your fantasy team’s sake, for your daughter’s sake, ya might wanna think about buying a quality product from the below list (or anyone in the Rockies lineup), and keep the above contingencies in mind. The following list starts with the highest BABIP differential (most likely to drop off) all the way to the other side of the spectrum (80 plate appearances as the qualifier). The Rockies noted above are bolded:

Name BB/K BABIP xBABIP xBABIPdiff GB/FB LD% IFFB% HR/FB Spd Swing% Ct% SwStr%
Tyler Flowers 0.2 0.492 0.3730 0.1190 2.62 26.60% 0.00% 7.70% 2.1 50.50% 70.10% 15.10%
Lonnie Chisenhall 0.27 0.44 0.3214 0.1186 0.64 28.00% 9.10% 0.00% 5.3 50.00% 82.70% 8.90%
Justin Upton 0.3 0.415 0.3242 0.0908 0.76 21.60% 6.10% 27.30% 6.4 49.60% 69.50% 15.00%
Alexei Ramirez 0.39 0.364 0.2751 0.0889 1.5 15.30% 23.80% 9.50% 6 53.60% 86.30% 7.40%
Marlon Byrd 0.17 0.419 0.3353 0.0837 1.06 24.40% 9.10% 12.10% 1.9 57.10% 72.50% 15.40%
Collin Cowgill 0.32 0.41 0.3265 0.0835 1.23 27.50% 23.10% 15.40% 4.5 42.80% 76.50% 10.00%
Derek Norris 1.1 0.421 0.3383 0.0827 1.4 18.60% 10.00% 10.00% 2.7 37.10% 79.80% 7.50%
Brandon Barnes 0.39 0.464 0.3818 0.0822 1.6 29.10% 6.70% 0.00% 7 51.60% 72.00% 13.80%
Eric Hosmer 0.5 0.356 0.2784 0.0776 1.54 16.10% 10.30% 2.60% 1.6 48.90% 82.90% 8.20%
Casey McGehee 0.57 0.387 0.3117 0.0753 1.44 21.70% 11.80% 0.00% 1.8 39.20% 83.00% 6.80%
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.49 0.377 0.3047 0.0723 0.59 19.40% 8.80% 17.60% 1.4 47.70% 65.20% 17.20%
Yasiel Puig 0.56 0.376 0.3058 0.0702 1.69 12.40% 3.40% 13.80% 5.7 47.70% 72.80% 12.00%
Juan Lagares 0.16 0.4 0.3316 0.0684 0.78 21.30% 11.10% 3.70% 4.9 46.50% 77.80% 10.20%
Juan Francisco 0.43 0.389 0.3287 0.0603 0.88 22.00% 5.90% 29.40% 4.5 43.70% 71.20% 12.20%
Andrew McCutchen 1 0.369 0.3149 0.0541 1.24 22.40% 13.50% 10.80% 6.2 43.20% 78.10% 9.30%
Matt Adams 0.1 0.404 0.3500 0.0540 1.15 29.70% 12.10% 6.10% 2.3 51.60% 79.80% 10.30%
Brandon Phillips 0.22 0.333 0.2799 0.0531 1.1 21.20% 23.10% 5.10% 1.8 56.60% 75.90% 13.40%
Leonys Martin 0.25 0.369 0.3177 0.0513 2.05 21.00% 23.80% 4.80% 7.7 50.00% 73.70% 12.80%
Mike Napoli 0.7 0.368 0.3220 0.0460 1.16 17.30% 9.70% 16.10% 1 39.40% 77.00% 8.80%
John Jaso 0.5 0.367 0.3215 0.0455 0.81 24.00% 9.50% 4.80% 5.4 37.00% 76.70% 8.60%
Torii Hunter 0.18 0.345 0.3013 0.0437 0.83 18.90% 10.00% 10.00% 2.8 54.00% 78.80% 11.50%
Rajai Davis 0.28 0.37 0.3269 0.0431 1.35 15.30% 15.40% 7.70% 6.9 48.00% 81.90% 8.40%
Chris Owings 0.35 0.375 0.3325 0.0425 2.1 22.50% 10.00% 5.00% 5.8 48.70% 78.30% 10.50%
Xander Bogaerts 0.53 0.367 0.3255 0.0415 1.03 23.80% 10.00% 3.30% 2 39.90% 73.50% 10.40%
Chris Heisey 0.27 0.308 0.2670 0.0410 1.29 25.00% 41.20% 5.90% 6.1 51.70% 79.30% 10.60%
Mike Trout 0.45 0.365 0.3249 0.0401 0.97 19.80% 5.40% 16.20% 7.5 40.30% 79.00% 8.30%
Troy Tulowitzki 1.67 0.402 0.3625 0.0395 1.24 26.70% 9.10% 27.30% 3.5 41.90% 82.50% 7.00%
Jason Kubel 0.29 0.414 0.3755 0.0385 0.96 31.00% 4.00% 4.00% 2.9 41.80% 71.40% 11.50%
Juan Uribe 0.26 0.356 0.3179 0.0381 1.34 17.60% 13.20% 10.50% 1.3 56.50% 81.00% 10.40%
Dayan Viciedo 0.48 0.363 0.3261 0.0369 1.3 18.30% 12.10% 6.10% 3 49.10% 79.20% 10.00%
Bryce Harper 0.38 0.377 0.3406 0.0364 1.25 22.40% 5.00% 5.00% 4.5 49.90% 75.70% 12.00%
Matt Holliday 0.78 0.33 0.2943 0.0357 1.32 18.50% 15.80% 5.30% 1.9 49.70% 79.70% 10.00%
Justin Morneau 0.24 0.333 0.2982 0.0348 1.53 20.90% 16.70% 19.40% 2.5 58.10% 82.60% 10.00%
Chris Colabello 0.21 0.36 0.3262 0.0338 2 16.70% 4.00% 16.00% 1.8 46.30% 70.30% 13.70%
Jackie Bradley Jr 0.5 0.309 0.2757 0.0333 1.5 15.40% 13.60% 0.00% 6.8 38.80% 73.30% 10.20%
Danny Espinosa 0.13 0.333 0.2999 0.0331 1.13 16.40% 12.50% 16.70% 6.2 52.20% 66.10% 17.30%
Lucas Duda 0.39 0.339 0.3085 0.0305 0.83 16.70% 10.00% 13.30% 2 42.30% 72.90% 11.30%
Paul Goldschmidt 0.3 0.398 0.3693 0.0287 1.59 26.70% 2.90% 20.60% 3.6 41.90% 81.30% 7.70%
Shin-Soo Choo 0.96 0.419 0.3906 0.0284 1.68 23.40% 0.00% 13.60% 4.6 37.70% 82.70% 6.40%
Brandon Crawford 0.59 0.308 0.2801 0.0279 1.09 16.30% 12.50% 9.40% 4.8 48.80% 78.90% 10.20%
Adam Dunn 0.69 0.344 0.3163 0.0277 0.96 19.70% 3.70% 18.50% 2.3 37.90% 71.90% 10.00%
Charlie Blackmon 0.64 0.336 0.3085 0.0275 1.23 19.70% 15.90% 15.90% 7.3 49.60% 91.90% 4.40%
Yangervis Solarte 1 0.341 0.3150 0.0260 1.03 19.80% 5.90% 2.90% 0.8 42.90% 89.00% 4.70%
Jayson Werth 0.6 0.364 0.3381 0.0259 1 22.30% 10.00% 10.00% 4.1 38.30% 83.30% 6.50%
Colby Rasmus 0.16 0.278 0.2538 0.0242 0.67 13.60% 14.30% 21.40% 1.8 48.10% 67.60% 15.50%
George Springer 0.21 0.347 0.3230 0.0240 1.44 12.00% 16.70% 5.60% 1.8 53.20% 66.10% 17.40%
Nolan Arenado 0.39 0.325 0.3024 0.0226 1 22.10% 19.60% 11.80% 2.5 54.30% 83.60% 8.50%
Seth Smith 0.7 0.352 0.3296 0.0224 1.5 17.80% 0.00% 8.30% 2.7 40.80% 78.20% 8.30%
Jonathan Schoop 0.06 0.308 0.2861 0.0219 1.22 11.80% 14.80% 11.10% 1.5 57.60% 72.60% 15.40%
Howie Kendrick 0.52 0.349 0.3286 0.0204 3.74 16.70% 0.00% 10.50% 7 47.60% 78.40% 10.10%
Conor Gillaspie 0.47 0.382 0.3628 0.0192 1 33.30% 11.10% 0.00% 1.3 53.90% 83.80% 8.50%
Jimmy Rollins 0.65 0.301 0.2826 0.0184 1 20.80% 15.80% 7.90% 6.5 40.50% 85.60% 5.90%
Giancarlo Stanton 0.47 0.354 0.3357 0.0183 0.97 21.50% 13.50% 29.70% 4.2 45.80% 69.90% 13.00%
Melky Cabrera 0.23 0.37 0.3533 0.0167 1.69 24.80% 5.70% 17.10% 5.8 45.80% 84.20% 7.10%
Junior Lake 0.1 0.391 0.3753 0.0157 1.92 17.40% 0.00% 23.10% 7.5 55.70% 58.10% 22.20%
Alex Rios 0.43 0.36 0.3445 0.0155 1.35 23.00% 5.40% 5.40% 5.1 42.60% 86.60% 5.40%
Starling Marte 0.25 0.376 0.3613 0.0147 2.09 23.60% 9.10% 9.10% 8.2 47.10% 71.40% 13.40%
Chase Utley 0.63 0.353 0.3386 0.0144 1.35 23.80% 2.90% 8.80% 2.7 43.30% 83.90% 6.40%
Ian Kinsler 0.55 0.319 0.3059 0.0131 1.24 19.70% 16.70% 4.80% 4.3 41.90% 91.00% 3.40%
Welington Castillo 0.2 0.318 0.3050 0.0130 0.58 18.60% 8.30% 11.10% 0.7 44.10% 74.70% 10.60%
Chris Iannetta 0.94 0.25 0.2372 0.0128 0.68 13.00% 14.30% 7.10% 3.7 46.30% 72.80% 12.10%
Dee Gordon 0.27 0.396 0.3834 0.0126 3.22 24.80% 11.10% 5.60% 8.9 43.50% 88.80% 4.70%
Adam Jones 0.13 0.32 0.3076 0.0124 1.26 15.70% 10.50% 7.90% 6 55.40% 74.70% 13.70%
Hunter Pence 0.76 0.289 0.2772 0.0118 1.58 15.50% 15.80% 5.30% 7.4 46.50% 76.50% 10.50%
Nelson Cruz 0.4 0.313 0.3020 0.0110 1.14 16.30% 8.30% 25.00% 2.4 49.00% 75.40% 12.20%
Mike Aviles 0.57 0.35 0.3394 0.0106 1.19 24.60% 19.00% 4.80% 5.1 43.20% 88.30% 4.70%
Marcell Ozuna 0.3 0.309 0.2988 0.0102 1.64 13.90% 12.10% 15.20% 1.3 48.00% 67.50% 15.50%
Michael Bourn 0.18 0.327 0.3170 0.0100 2.15 19.60% 0.00% 0.00% 5.7 43.80% 81.70% 8.50%
Kurt Suzuki 1.5 0.306 0.2968 0.0092 1.06 22.40% 15.60% 3.10% 0.5 35.20% 93.60% 2.20%
Anthony Rendon 0.31 0.33 0.3210 0.0090 0.8 21.40% 4.10% 10.20% 6.1 42.70% 85.30% 6.20%
Christian Yelich 0.4 0.354 0.3459 0.0081 3.39 18.60% 0.00% 11.10% 7.3 43.10% 83.30% 6.70%
Joe Mauer 0.63 0.381 0.3730 0.0080 3.43 27.10% 0.00% 14.30% 3.6 38.50% 85.10% 5.60%
Brandon Belt 0.21 0.305 0.2976 0.0074 1 18.70% 13.50% 24.30% 4.2 53.50% 69.30% 16.00%
Michael Morse 0.28 0.316 0.3089 0.0071 1.38 17.90% 13.80% 27.60% 1.3 53.00% 77.60% 11.10%
Nick Markakis 0.93 0.322 0.3150 0.0070 1.19 21.70% 9.30% 4.70% 4 43.50% 91.50% 3.70%
Austin Jackson 0.83 0.318 0.3110 0.0070 0.68 20.70% 4.90% 4.90% 7.1 40.60% 84.50% 6.30%
Josh Reddick 0.3 0.274 0.2673 0.0067 1.1 14.90% 13.30% 3.30% 6.2 48.70% 78.10% 10.60%
Carlos Gomez 0.31 0.351 0.3447 0.0063 0.8 23.70% 7.30% 19.50% 6.5 55.10% 70.80% 15.80%
David Wright 0.24 0.352 0.3459 0.0061 1.23 26.40% 2.90% 2.90% 2.9 44.80% 79.50% 8.90%
Emilio Bonifacio 0.4 0.384 0.3780 0.0060 3.24 23.40% 0.00% 0.00% 5.4 44.10% 81.40% 8.00%
Abraham Almonte 0.15 0.308 0.3020 0.0060 1.48 16.10% 9.50% 4.80% 6.2 39.70% 73.00% 10.70%
Adam LaRoche 0.83 0.378 0.3721 0.0059 0.9 32.20% 6.50% 16.10% 1.1 37.80% 80.90% 7.10%
Desmond Jennings 0.53 0.319 0.3138 0.0052 1.75 18.90% 10.70% 14.30% 6.8 38.50% 81.50% 7.30%
Jose Bautista 1.42 0.304 0.2988 0.0052 0.95 18.80% 16.70% 21.40% 2.5 34.90% 79.30% 7.30%
Alex Gordon 0.45 0.284 0.2797 0.0043 1.26 11.80% 7.00% 2.30% 2.5 48.30% 83.20% 8.40%
Jonathan Lucroy 0.87 0.33 0.3258 0.0042 1.48 18.80% 6.10% 3.00% 1.8 43.00% 89.20% 4.80%
Matt Wieters 0.33 0.365 0.3610 0.0040 0.53 30.40% 8.30% 13.90% 1.6 51.00% 84.00% 7.80%
Garrett Jones 0.32 0.317 0.3145 0.0025 0.89 16.30% 7.90% 13.20% 1 48.00% 79.10% 10.10%
Drew Stubbs 0.32 0.4 0.3977 0.0023 1.79 25.00% 0.00% 14.30% 5.5 40.00% 75.00% 10.00%
J.J. Hardy 0.25 0.299 0.2969 0.0021 0.88 22.10% 12.50% 0.00% 0.9 42.40% 87.60% 5.30%
Josh Donaldson 0.49 0.298 0.2962 0.0018 1.04 13.50% 4.30% 14.90% 3.4 43.60% 77.60% 9.50%
DJ LeMahieu 0.67 0.345 0.3434 0.0016 2.78 21.80% 0.00% 0.00% 4.8 46.30% 85.70% 5.90%
Evan Gattis 0.13 0.27 0.2686 0.0014 1.03 10.00% 12.90% 22.60% 0.1 53.10% 70.60% 15.10%
Carlos Ruiz 1.07 0.338 0.3367 0.0013 1.31 25.90% 15.40% 3.80% 4.7 36.60% 83.50% 5.90%
Brett Gardner 0.29 0.385 0.3851 -0.0001 2 23.10% 10.00% 5.00% 6 38.70% 83.50% 6.30%
Norichika Aoki 0.58 0.321 0.3214 -0.0004 3.29 17.40% 14.30% 0.00% 6 44.10% 89.00% 4.70%
James Loney 1.17 0.339 0.3395 -0.0005 1.13 26.40% 2.60% 2.60% 2.6 41.90% 89.80% 4.20%
Matt Joyce 1 0.324 0.3247 -0.0007 1.14 21.10% 14.30% 7.10% 2.2 38.20% 80.60% 7.10%
Josmil Pinto 0.72 0.254 0.2561 -0.0021 1.18 10.30% 21.40% 17.90% 1.4 41.00% 78.70% 8.70%
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.59 0.376 0.3784 -0.0024 1.88 28.70% 8.00% 4.00% 7.6 42.90% 84.10% 6.50%
Sam Fuld 0.35 0.281 0.2839 -0.0029 1.04 17.20% 11.50% 3.80% 7.9 44.90% 81.00% 8.40%
Mitch Moreland 0.26 0.357 0.3601 -0.0031 1.29 31.60% 11.80% 5.90% 3.5 46.10% 73.70% 12.00%
Aaron Hill 0.39 0.321 0.3242 -0.0032 0.71 26.80% 14.60% 6.30% 4.4 43.60% 82.40% 7.30%
Angel Pagan 0.42 0.352 0.3554 -0.0034 1.39 28.80% 6.10% 9.10% 4.1 45.30% 87.70% 5.30%
Jonathan Villar 0.25 0.299 0.3027 -0.0037 1.77 11.60% 0.00% 22.70% 8.5 46.80% 68.90% 13.60%
Robinson Chirinos 0.21 0.286 0.2904 -0.0044 1.26 15.70% 10.50% 10.50% 0.9 44.30% 80.70% 8.30%
Adeiny Hechavarria 0.36 0.333 0.3376 -0.0046 2.43 22.50% 4.30% 0.00% 5.5 51.00% 83.30% 8.70%
Carlos Gonzalez 0.3 0.308 0.3128 -0.0048 1.71 16.40% 5.90% 20.60% 5.9 52.80% 76.40% 12.00%
Will Venable 0.22 0.272 0.2775 -0.0055 1.56 16.90% 16.00% 0.00% 4 48.90% 70.50% 14.30%
Matt Kemp 0.33 0.344 0.3498 -0.0058 1.57 20.60% 0.00% 19.00% 3.7 47.20% 70.10% 14.30%
Daniel Murphy 0.39 0.348 0.3544 -0.0064 1.5 30.40% 12.50% 3.10% 6.6 45.50% 90.20% 4.40%
Mark Reynolds 0.28 0.271 0.2777 -0.0067 1.04 14.50% 21.70% 30.40% 3.5 49.60% 66.10% 16.80%
Steve Lombardozzi 0 0.356 0.3627 -0.0067 1.63 27.60% 12.50% 0.00% 5.7 50.60% 89.20% 5.00%
Adrian Gonzalez 0.55 0.281 0.2878 -0.0068 1.05 16.20% 9.30% 20.90% 3.1 54.30% 78.40% 11.20%
Ben Zobrist 1.11 0.286 0.2931 -0.0071 1.47 17.50% 18.40% 7.90% 4.2 39.30% 83.60% 6.10%
Jose Tabata 0.19 0.311 0.3221 -0.0111 2.92 20.30% 0.00% 0.00% 3.2 46.40% 80.30% 8.70%
Starlin Castro 0.37 0.296 0.3072 -0.0112 1.47 21.20% 13.90% 13.90% 2.5 48.60% 82.30% 8.50%
Yoenis Cespedes 0.68 0.271 0.2824 -0.0114 0.63 14.30% 8.30% 12.50% 3.2 49.40% 81.60% 8.70%
Derek Jeter 0.45 0.321 0.3331 -0.0121 2.4 19.00% 5.00% 5.00% 0.7 48.90% 83.00% 8.20%
Nick Punto 0.41 0.283 0.2951 -0.0121 1.06 22.20% 11.80% 0.00% 3.5 44.80% 79.10% 9.30%
Salvador Perez 0.69 0.26 0.2722 -0.0122 1.29 18.70% 21.10% 7.90% 2.5 50.90% 86.10% 6.80%
Albert Pujols 0.8 0.266 0.2783 -0.0123 1.32 14.30% 18.20% 22.70% 3.2 46.70% 82.40% 8.00%
A.J. Pollock 0.32 0.301 0.3133 -0.0123 1.19 10.50% 9.70% 9.70% 4.6 42.50% 79.00% 8.60%
Ryan Braun 0.39 0.333 0.3458 -0.0128 0.9 19.70% 3.30% 20.00% 6 48.50% 75.60% 10.20%
Trevor Plouffe 0.46 0.344 0.3568 -0.0128 1.09 25.80% 0.00% 3.00% 3.4 38.30% 77.50% 8.60%
Brandon Moss 0.48 0.293 0.3058 -0.0128 0.68 19.80% 7.30% 12.20% 4.4 51.50% 75.30% 12.20%
Omar Infante 0.91 0.278 0.2915 -0.0135 0.77 23.90% 21.30% 4.30% 5.5 41.20% 89.50% 4.30%
Scooter Gennett 0.35 0.319 0.3328 -0.0138 1.31 22.90% 6.30% 6.30% 4.7 50.00% 84.70% 7.60%
Ben Revere 0.13 0.324 0.3382 -0.0142 6.18 21.80% 9.10% 0.00% 8.5 41.70% 90.90% 3.70%
Ian Desmond 0.26 0.286 0.3002 -0.0142 1.55 11.60% 15.20% 12.10% 3.3 52.80% 70.10% 15.50%
Alcides Escobar 0.45 0.32 0.3348 -0.0148 1.39 22.10% 16.10% 3.20% 6.1 49.20% 83.30% 7.90%
Jose Lobaton 0.37 0.327 0.3424 -0.0154 1.16 22.60% 0.00% 5.30% 0.6 46.40% 77.10% 10.40%
Ryan Ludwick 0.39 0.329 0.3447 -0.0157 1.04 23.60% 7.40% 7.40% 0.3 51.70% 72.40% 13.80%
Ike Davis 0.88 0.276 0.2917 -0.0157 1.13 18.30% 17.40% 8.70% 2.4 39.80% 82.50% 6.90%
Evan Longoria 0.34 0.317 0.3334 -0.0164 1.47 22.20% 11.80% 11.80% 2.8 44.60% 79.60% 9.10%
Jed Lowrie 1.31 0.288 0.3045 -0.0165 0.56 23.20% 9.10% 3.60% 1.6 47.90% 90.10% 4.70%
Yunel Escobar 0.71 0.269 0.2860 -0.0170 1.47 15.20% 11.10% 5.60% 0.1 43.90% 84.70% 6.20%
A.J. Pierzynski 0.22 0.32 0.3371 -0.0171 1.77 20.80% 0.00% 13.60% 1.5 56.40% 80.50% 10.50%
Edwin Encarnacion 0.61 0.284 0.3011 -0.0171 0.76 16.70% 3.90% 11.80% 6.2 42.80% 84.20% 7.00%
Dustin Ackley 0.5 0.289 0.3068 -0.0178 1.21 19.50% 10.70% 3.60% 5 41.30% 80.10% 7.80%
Miguel Cabrera 0.33 0.323 0.3409 -0.0179 1.32 21.00% 2.90% 11.80% 1.3 50.30% 83.20% 8.20%
Robinson Cano 0.6 0.33 0.3489 -0.0189 2.58 19.80% 0.00% 3.80% 4.3 53.40% 83.50% 7.90%
Ryan Hanigan 0.6 0.3 0.3195 -0.0195 1.22 19.00% 8.70% 13.00% 0.2 36.90% 81.10% 6.90%
Marcus Semien 0.29 0.3 0.3195 -0.0195 1.09 19.80% 11.40% 8.60% 6.6 40.80% 75.60% 9.40%
Carlos Beltran 0.38 0.25 0.2701 -0.0201 0.89 14.40% 13.60% 11.40% 3 47.70% 87.60% 5.70%
Justin Smoak 0.3 0.299 0.3214 -0.0224 1.09 19.80% 8.60% 11.40% 2.1 45.40% 74.50% 11.20%
Wil Myers 0.38 0.309 0.3324 -0.0234 1.32 14.90% 10.80% 10.80% 2.2 45.60% 75.60% 10.80%
Victor Martinez 2.4 0.294 0.3174 -0.0234 1.02 22.00% 7.10% 16.70% 1.6 43.60% 93.10% 2.80%
David Ortiz 0.79 0.275 0.2996 -0.0246 0.86 17.50% 9.30% 14.00% 0.7 42.10% 81.30% 7.50%
Chris Davis 0.52 0.333 0.3582 -0.0252 0.9 28.30% 5.00% 10.00% 4.9 48.50% 67.20% 15.70%
Chris Johnson 0.13 0.322 0.3482 -0.0262 1.25 28.40% 3.60% 3.60% 0.1 58.60% 76.70% 13.30%
Hanley Ramirez 0.54 0.296 0.3225 -0.0265 1.28 18.80% 10.00% 10.00% 3.5 50.00% 78.80% 10.00%
Nate Schierholtz 0.27 0.256 0.2825 -0.0265 0.85 22.20% 14.70% 0.00% 5.5 52.70% 78.00% 10.70%
Jonny Gomes 0.48 0.277 0.3036 -0.0266 0.5 22.00% 15.40% 11.50% 1.1 37.30% 73.80% 9.90%
Yadier Molina 0.29 0.33 0.3567 -0.0267 1.58 27.30% 3.20% 12.90% 0.9 50.50% 85.20% 7.20%
Kyle Seager 0.54 0.267 0.2939 -0.0269 1.05 16.50% 5.40% 13.50% 2.2 41.50% 81.70% 7.20%
Dioner Navarro 0.75 0.312 0.3390 -0.0270 1.12 23.40% 2.90% 2.90% 3.6 43.30% 88.80% 4.80%
Coco Crisp 0.83 0.286 0.3132 -0.0272 1.1 21.80% 10.30% 10.30% 7 40.30% 84.60% 6.20%
Brandon Hicks 0.39 0.239 0.2662 -0.0272 0.48 11.50% 9.70% 19.40% 2 45.80% 60.60% 18.10%
Donnie Murphy 0.43 0.275 0.3026 -0.0276 1.37 13.50% 10.50% 5.30% 0.9 49.20% 74.80% 12.10%
Domonic Brown 0.42 0.275 0.3034 -0.0284 1.85 16.30% 7.40% 3.70% 4 51.80% 76.60% 12.20%
Alex Avila 0.43 0.361 0.3910 -0.0300 1.5 34.20% 10.00% 20.00% 2.5 40.40% 65.70% 13.60%
Ryan Flaherty 0.38 0.273 0.3043 -0.0313 2 22.20% 14.30% 0.00% 2.2 46.10% 80.00% 9.20%
Michael Choice 0.86 0.268 0.3000 -0.0320 1.67 17.20% 11.10% 11.10% 2.8 39.20% 78.10% 8.20%
David Murphy 1.18 0.284 0.3164 -0.0324 1.61 18.90% 10.70% 7.10% 3.8 43.50% 85.10% 5.70%
Billy Butler 0.41 0.29 0.3231 -0.0331 2.57 20.20% 9.50% 4.80% 1 43.30% 85.40% 6.80%
Grady Sizemore 0.5 0.274 0.3074 -0.0334 1.14 17.30% 6.90% 6.90% 5.5 44.30% 78.80% 9.40%
B.J. Upton 0.37 0.291 0.3250 -0.0340 1.28 17.50% 10.30% 6.90% 6.4 48.20% 66.80% 15.90%
Adam Eaton 0.69 0.317 0.3516 -0.0346 3.87 9.90% 0.00% 6.70% 5.7 43.50% 90.10% 4.10%
Miguel Montero 1.13 0.288 0.3228 -0.0348 1.1 20.40% 4.90% 9.80% 0.8 47.10% 84.10% 7.30%
Asdrubal Cabrera 0.4 0.283 0.3183 -0.0353 1 21.60% 10.50% 5.30% 5.6 50.40% 83.10% 8.20%
Martin Prado 0.33 0.293 0.3285 -0.0355 2.18 23.30% 21.40% 0.00% 4.4 38.50% 89.00% 4.20%
Yan Gomes 0.17 0.318 0.3541 -0.0361 1.12 24.30% 0.00% 16.00% 3.2 46.40% 76.40% 10.40%
Alfonso Soriano 0.15 0.275 0.3112 -0.0362 0.8 17.70% 2.30% 11.40% 1.6 51.50% 73.60% 13.50%
Mark Teixeira 0.67 0.273 0.3095 -0.0365 1.17 20.40% 22.20% 27.80% 1.1 41.70% 80.20% 7.80%
Luis Valbuena 0.77 0.286 0.3239 -0.0379 0.54 29.80% 11.50% 3.80% 3.4 39.60% 83.80% 5.60%
Anthony Rizzo 1.05 0.308 0.3461 -0.0381 1.31 23.70% 3.10% 21.90% 3.8 39.40% 78.20% 8.30%
Denard Span 0.57 0.283 0.3216 -0.0386 1.62 22.40% 10.30% 0.00% 8.2 45.10% 91.20% 3.90%
Dexter Fowler 0.4 0.307 0.3460 -0.0390 1.92 17.00% 4.00% 8.00% 5.4 43.70% 79.00% 8.80%
Everth Cabrera 0.11 0.339 0.3784 -0.0394 4.19 23.10% 0.00% 0.00% 5.4 45.40% 81.80% 8.10%
Chris Denorfia 0.29 0.33 0.3702 -0.0402 2.7 19.60% 0.00% 5.00% 6.8 43.00% 86.80% 5.60%
Jay Bruce 0.69 0.279 0.3199 -0.0409 1.43 21.10% 8.70% 13.00% 7.4 42.90% 68.40% 13.20%
Michael Brantley 1.1 0.274 0.3158 -0.0418 1.91 18.60% 6.10% 18.20% 4.7 40.20% 91.50% 3.30%
Lyle Overbay 0.73 0.275 0.3170 -0.0420 1.63 19.20% 0.00% 6.30% 3.9 44.40% 77.60% 9.80%
Dustin Pedroia 0.82 0.317 0.3590 -0.0420 2.21 25.00% 10.30% 3.40% 3.2 41.90% 88.10% 4.90%
Travis Snider 0.5 0.268 0.3101 -0.0421 1.82 18.60% 5.90% 17.60% 2.5 42.20% 81.50% 7.70%
Neil Walker 0.69 0.25 0.2923 -0.0423 0.98 19.50% 10.90% 13.00% 3.2 49.30% 87.70% 5.90%
Brian Roberts 0.6 0.307 0.3494 -0.0424 1 25.30% 7.10% 3.60% 6.7 47.60% 83.30% 7.80%
Kolten Wong 0.56 0.258 0.3009 -0.0429 3.08 13.10% 23.10% 0.00% 6.6 44.80% 88.30% 5.10%
Andre Ethier 0.36 0.307 0.3504 -0.0434 2.33 22.10% 5.60% 11.10% 2.6 48.40% 77.70% 10.40%
Gerardo Parra 0.36 0.314 0.3580 -0.0440 3.32 22.80% 4.50% 9.10% 4.8 47.80% 86.80% 6.30%
Todd Frazier 0.52 0.289 0.3334 -0.0444 1 22.10% 8.10% 13.50% 4.9 48.20% 77.10% 11.00%
Nick Swisher 0.59 0.247 0.2923 -0.0453 0.71 22.20% 15.60% 4.40% 1.4 41.30% 79.50% 8.20%
Aaron Hicks 0.65 0.24 0.2866 -0.0466 1.87 12.20% 0.00% 6.70% 4 35.00% 78.50% 7.50%
Matt Dominguez 0.42 0.25 0.2967 -0.0467 0.97 17.20% 7.70% 12.80% 1.8 46.50% 81.70% 7.90%
Joey Votto 1.08 0.303 0.3515 -0.0485 1.65 25.80% 3.80% 15.40% 1.9 39.10% 83.40% 5.80%
Marc Krauss 0.5 0.209 0.2580 -0.0490 0.56 13.30% 8.00% 8.00% 0.8 35.60% 74.40% 8.70%
Curtis Granderson 0.43 0.221 0.2705 -0.0495 1.17 17.70% 20.00% 10.00% 3.8 45.10% 70.30% 13.20%
Matt Carpenter 0.7 0.37 0.4205 -0.0505 1.37 35.40% 0.00% 3.70% 3.7 33.60% 87.80% 4.10%
Billy Hamilton 0.21 0.289 0.3404 -0.0514 1.24 16.40% 4.00% 4.00% 7.9 44.40% 85.60% 6.40%
Andrelton Simmons 0.71 0.265 0.3186 -0.0536 1.47 15.20% 8.30% 8.30% 3.8 50.10% 87.70% 6.30%
Kelly Johnson 0.33 0.245 0.2992 -0.0542 1.68 10.50% 5.30% 21.10% 4.6 43.70% 80.90% 8.00%
Yasmani Grandal 0.41 0.273 0.3273 -0.0543 0.96 20.30% 4.20% 16.70% 2.5 42.30% 71.20% 11.60%
Carl Crawford 0.31 0.284 0.3384 -0.0544 1.52 22.70% 3.70% 3.70% 5.7 53.70% 91.10% 5.20%
Brian McCann 0.31 0.204 0.2593 -0.0553 0.76 18.60% 17.80% 8.90% 1.7 48.00% 85.10% 6.80%
Erick Aybar 0.42 0.274 0.3297 -0.0557 1.9 24.30% 17.20% 6.90% 5.5 48.00% 91.00% 4.20%
Jason Heyward 0.48 0.258 0.3156 -0.0576 1.08 19.40% 10.50% 5.30% 4.2 43.60% 77.40% 9.60%
Chris Carter 0.33 0.213 0.2707 -0.0577 0.49 20.00% 17.10% 11.40% 3.1 46.10% 61.50% 17.00%
Alberto Callaspo 0.88 0.258 0.3162 -0.0582 1.03 20.70% 8.30% 8.30% 0.8 36.30% 90.40% 3.40%
Jean Segura 0.12 0.278 0.3367 -0.0587 4.27 17.70% 6.70% 13.30% 6.5 50.90% 85.20% 7.40%
Ryan Howard 0.28 0.286 0.3451 -0.0591 0.83 23.80% 2.90% 20.00% 3.2 49.60% 68.80% 15.30%
Jon Jay 0.46 0.297 0.3562 -0.0592 3 25.00% 0.00% 8.30% 3.9 49.20% 89.40% 5.10%
Jason Castro 0.26 0.292 0.3527 -0.0607 1.25 21.70% 4.20% 16.70% 2.8 44.50% 69.60% 13.30%
Alex Presley 0.14 0.232 0.2928 -0.0608 1.26 15.30% 14.80% 11.10% 3 48.50% 83.70% 7.80%
Derek Dietrich 0.44 0.304 0.3649 -0.0609 1.06 28.60% 5.90% 17.60% 4.9 38.80% 76.70% 9.70%
Jose Altuve 1 0.286 0.3487 -0.0627 1.52 20.30% 4.80% 2.40% 6.1 46.60% 89.60% 4.60%
Mike Zunino 0.1 0.302 0.3653 -0.0633 0.96 22.10% 0.00% 18.50% 4.3 59.30% 64.60% 19.10%
Jose Abreu 0.26 0.274 0.3379 -0.0639 1.4 21.50% 8.60% 34.30% 3.1 53.90% 70.90% 15.50%
Alejandro De Aza 0.29 0.213 0.2769 -0.0639 1.27 17.60% 18.20% 12.10% 5.3 47.20% 77.90% 10.40%
Jason Kipnis 1.06 0.25 0.3141 -0.0641 0.86 15.20% 2.80% 8.30% 4 43.30% 81.40% 8.00%
Mike Olt 0.21 0.186 0.2506 -0.0646 0.83 10.20% 12.50% 25.00% 0.9 45.90% 71.50% 12.40%
Pablo Sandoval 0.39 0.211 0.2759 -0.0649 1.39 19.60% 22.60% 6.50% 3.3 53.10% 77.20% 11.30%
Buster Posey 1.13 0.278 0.3450 -0.0670 1.25 25.00% 3.10% 21.90% 1.3 42.20% 86.60% 5.20%
Brett Lawrie 0.32 0.231 0.2980 -0.0670 1.31 13.50% 16.70% 16.70% 1.3 51.00% 80.40% 9.60%
Freddie Freeman 0.61 0.333 0.4006 -0.0676 0.77 34.30% 2.60% 15.40% 1.8 50.60% 80.40% 9.70%
Prince Fielder 1.1 0.25 0.3177 -0.0677 1.9 18.70% 10.00% 10.00% 1.5 44.80% 80.80% 8.10%
Josh Wilson 0.14 0.283 0.3523 -0.0693 1.41 22.60% 0.00% 0.00% 4.6 59.00% 79.70% 11.30%
Eric Young 0.45 0.296 0.3658 -0.0698 2.6 19.40% 0.00% 0.00% 9.7 43.40% 80.60% 8.30%
Zack Cozart 0.21 0.233 0.3041 -0.0711 1.24 18.70% 12.10% 3.00% 2 50.40% 88.40% 5.80%
Jose Reyes 0.8 0.179 0.2533 -0.0743 0.82 10.10% 11.80% 5.90% 6.8 43.30% 82.40% 7.40%
Wilin Rosario 0.38 0.243 0.3177 -0.0747 2.3 14.30% 5.00% 15.00% 0.9 55.60% 78.10% 12.00%
Michael Saunders 0.47 0.288 0.3657 -0.0777 1.05 28.10% 5.00% 5.00% 6.3 43.30% 82.20% 7.30%
Jhonny Peralta 0.54 0.233 0.3131 -0.0801 0.81 21.60% 11.90% 16.70% 0.8 50.80% 79.00% 10.50%
Pedro Alvarez 0.58 0.202 0.2830 -0.0810 1.05 11.30% 7.10% 19.00% 3.4 45.00% 73.20% 11.60%
David Freese 0.22 0.263 0.3476 -0.0846 1.76 20.30% 0.00% 11.80% 2.5 44.70% 75.50% 10.70%
Khris Davis 0.03 0.277 0.3625 -0.0855 1.17 23.50% 3.30% 13.30% 4.1 52.90% 67.80% 16.60%
Russell Martin 0.62 0.271 0.3570 -0.0860 2.42 18.00% 0.00% 16.70% 1.6 41.90% 74.00% 10.80%
Dan Uggla 0.19 0.239 0.3265 -0.0875 1 17.80% 6.70% 6.70% 1.4 47.80% 75.50% 11.50%
Adrian Beltre 0.64 0.286 0.3760 -0.0900 1.24 27.70% 0.00% 9.50% 2.5 46.00% 87.90% 5.90%
Brian Dozier 0.81 0.234 0.3241 -0.0901 0.89 17.80% 11.40% 18.20% 6.6 36.10% 84.10% 5.50%
Jordy Mercer 0.19 0.194 0.2842 -0.0902 2.14 8.30% 4.80% 0.00% 1.7 49.10% 81.10% 8.30%
J.B. Shuck 0.22 0.171 0.2630 -0.0920 1.91 8.60% 13.60% 9.10% 6 50.60% 93.90% 3.00%
Travis d’Arnaud 0.67 0.221 0.3131 -0.0921 1.11 18.60% 3.70% 7.40% 2.6 46.70% 85.60% 6.70%
David DeJesus 1.2 0.231 0.3237 -0.0927 1.3 22.10% 8.70% 13.00% 2.7 40.10% 89.00% 4.20%
Cody Asche 0.41 0.296 0.3904 -0.0944 1.8 26.30% 0.00% 20.00% 1 46.40% 78.00% 10.40%
Aramis Ramirez 0.47 0.24 0.3349 -0.0949 0.88 26.00% 4.90% 9.80% 2.3 55.00% 79.00% 11.30%
Alexi Amarista 0.53 0.203 0.2993 -0.0963 1.74 10.30% 5.30% 5.30% 6.3 45.60% 88.30% 5.30%
Corey Hart 0.36 0.232 0.3292 -0.0972 0.94 19.50% 2.80% 13.90% 2.6 50.10% 75.80% 11.80%
Eric Sogard 1.11 0.227 0.3317 -0.1047 1.09 23.80% 8.70% 0.00% 5.1 43.60% 91.10% 3.90%
Carlos Santana 0.93 0.151 0.2569 -0.1059 1.19 10.20% 13.90% 11.10% 2.7 34.90% 80.60% 6.70%
Elvis Andrus 0.78 0.252 0.3594 -0.1074 4.93 22.60% 6.70% 6.70% 5.8 38.00% 85.70% 5.10%
Jesus Guzman 0.14 0.267 0.3774 -0.1104 1.5 25.50% 7.10% 14.30% 2.9 43.10% 76.00% 9.10%
Allen Craig 0.32 0.225 0.3370 -0.1120 2.63 17.10% 4.20% 12.50% 2.6 44.80% 87.20% 5.70%
Raul Ibanez 0.32 0.177 0.2899 -0.1129 1.57 14.30% 14.30% 14.30% 3 45.10% 69.00% 13.90%
Mark Trumbo 0.23 0.192 0.3058 -0.1138 1.38 15.30% 14.30% 33.30% 1.6 49.00% 74.70% 12.10%
Ryan Raburn 0.29 0.224 0.3379 -0.1139 0.75 28.60% 5.00% 0.00% 1.1 46.30% 73.90% 10.90%
Jedd Gyorko 0.26 0.172 0.2892 -0.1172 1.33 14.40% 6.10% 9.10% 5 45.60% 72.90% 11.40%
Brad Miller 0.19 0.213 0.3322 -0.1192 0.97 18.70% 6.50% 9.70% 4.4 50.80% 75.30% 12.40%
Yonder Alonso 0.27 0.178 0.2980 -0.1200 1.13 17.80% 10.30% 0.00% 3.9 50.60% 86.20% 6.70%
Daniel Nava 0.35 0.167 0.2872 -0.1202 1.16 18.00% 21.10% 10.50% 4.3 39.40% 85.70% 5.50%
Mike Moustakas 0.45 0.141 0.2646 -0.1236 0.79 14.60% 10.30% 10.30% 0.7 46.60% 81.80% 8.00%
Chase Headley 0.3 0.229 0.3683 -0.1393 1.53 24.00% 0.00% 13.30% 3.1 44.90% 74.80% 11.20%
Ruben Tejada 0.67 0.246 0.3859 -0.1399 1.73 32.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.4 43.40% 84.00% 6.70%
Nick Castellanos 0.19 0.253 0.3987 -0.1457 0.69 31.60% 0.00% 12.50% 1.1 59.60% 69.90% 17.40%
Pedro Florimon 0.39 0.149 0.3199 -0.1709 1.71 17.40% 0.00% 0.00% 9.8 42.70% 76.40% 10.00%

As you look at the above list and inflated BABIPs, keep in mind the following positive effects: HR/FB ratio; line drive, ground ball (with enough speed) and infield hit rates as well as infield fly ball rates (inverse). –Herbie Hancock

 

Follow Dano on Twitter @Rotobanter when he’s not selling meat popsicles to men with gout.

  1. Cold Never Bother Sonny Gray says:
    (link)

    Wow thanks Im glad you expect Andrus and Reyes to improve… who do you like best ROS I IDesmond, Andrus, or Reyes?

  2. Dano

    Dano says:
    (link)

    seems like desmond is pressing a little…a BABIP rebound is all it would take for him (although he will continue striking out more based on his swinging strike/whiff rate). I dont trust reyes to stay healthy and elvis andrus is a 1-trick pony. Still, Reyes is heating up and is still so good where i have to say him first; dez 2nd; creepy beard 3rd.

    • Spammer Jay says:
      (link)

      @Dano: it is a creepy beard ….

  3. Rags says:
    (link)

    Are park adjustments naturally built in to the secret sauce of xBABIP? Is there any reason to think that Coors specifically might result in higher BABIPs than expected?

    • Dano

      Dano says:
      (link)

      @Rags: coors is notoriously elevating BABIP’s! there is not a park effect built into the xBABIP formula i’m using. Ideally, this formula would include hard-hit%, avg. distance of line drives and flyballs; speed and park affects and it would give an even better xbabip. It’s good to be a rockie right now

  4. Wacha Wacha says:
    (link)

    Everyone thinks Gyorko is going to bounce back… I think Im convinced. That being said do you like this trade in a 10 team h2h 5×5 cats league?

    I give Y Ventura and Hosmer I get Scherzer and J Gyorko

    • Dano

      Dano says:
      (link)

      @Wacha Wacha: if you can land that then JAH

  5. john e depth says:
    (link)

    This is my favorite segment on this site….That being said:
    Sell Alex Gordon and Billy Butler low?

    • Dano

      Dano says:
      (link)

      @john e depth: thx – its my least fav, not. Gordon has had a nice contact jump…its just not the right contact. i think he’ll start lining the ball more which will cause a BABIP jump meaning he will approach .270+ & the hr/fb will certainly go up (but not a whole lot) meaning he’ll end the year w/ 12-14 HR. If you can get value for him, i would definitely sell him since he’s more of the 2012 counting stats with the 2013 avg (14hr-9sb-268avg let’s say).

      Regarding Butler, 1) Based on the whiff rate (actual swinging-strikes and not his general K-rate) and the contact rate, which is actually the 2nd best rates of his career, his k% rate should drop and bb% should go up, which will help his average.
      2) Hopefully the pop-up rate & groundball rates regress which would help his BABIP and again increase his average. He’s more of a .275avg by year end.
      3) His homerun & flyball average distance actually jumped 10 ft. relative to his 2013 rates, meaning we should see an increase in his hr/fb ratio

      I keep Butler over Gordon from an offensive perspective…sucks if you can only use Butler as your Utility though.

  6. John E Depth says:
    (link)

    Thank you ObiWan…Hitting metrics are much harder for me to understand than pitching. I will keep watching Butler’s groundball rate and try to sell off Gordon. I will re-peruse your other articles as well. Appreciate your well thought out response.

  7. stonepie says:
    (link)

    glad to see segura on the right side of the chart

    fielder on the other hand is getting destroyed. i noticed the same problem with mccann.. pulling everything into the vacuum of a shift.

    • Dano

      dano says:
      (link)

      @stonepie: yea h exactly …moustakas Too…it will probably sustain or take luck to reverse

  8. uncdrew says:
    (link)

    So I use the slightly less scientific method of:

    “Blackman and Dozier aren’t on my team and I never really heard of them 5 months ago so surely they will crap out soon”

    Is that valid?

    • Dano

      dano says:
      (link)

      @uncdrew: I like them both more than most it seems…regress sure but both were 20/20 candidates for me preseason. I think they’re both for real.

      • Uncdrew says:
        (link)

        @dano: darn

  9. Callahan brake pads says:
    (link)

    Worth it to try to flip fielder and t rosenthal for a guy like Cargo-lite?

  10. Chris says:
    (link)

    Hello Dano,

    need some help for this tempting trade H2H Mix:
    My side:
    Yu, Melancon and AJ Burnett
    For:
    Adam Jones, Wily Peralta and Dave Robertson

    My team is:
    Lucroy, Encarnacion, Pedroia, Andrus, Arenado, Stanton, Cespedes, Torii Hunter, Victorino (bn), Napoli (utl)
    Yu, Verlander, Lee, Shields, Burnett, Gee, Hudson, Chavez, Duffy, Melancon and Rosenthal.

    What do you think? Will my pitching suffer a lot. I would still have 3 very very good SP.

    Thanks,

    • Dano

      dano says:
      (link)

      @Chris: seems like you have enough OF. Yu is best player of deal

  11. jal179 says:
    (link)

    I did it. I just did it….. I dealt Prince for Rizzo… what have I done? Robbery or regret come mid July??

    • Dano

      dano says:
      (link)

      @jal179: I actually like the deal. Esp if it’s a keeper league. The hot air will help fielder a lot but still I’m worried about the balls in play & shift against him

  12. My Minor Likes Female Pujols says:
    (link)

    Bought Prince for Harper and a closer when Harper got injured. Thought it was a steal since Prince surely would be awesome soon…. Now that I believe he isn’t going to get a lot better can you throw out a couple names you would sell him for so I can get a idea of which tier of guys to go after? Myers? Cespedes? Better? Worse?
    Thanks! Good article!

    • Dano

      dano says:
      (link)

      @My Minor Likes Female Pujols: keeper or Redraft? You can prob get better for the name alone. I’d still try to reach high…not sure id want cespedes back for him. Myers might make sense if its a keeper league, but again, you might be able to ask for more.

      • My Minor Likes Female Pujols says:
        (link)

        @dano: sorry, redraft league. Higher than cespedes and Myers hopefully? Cargo lite straight up would seem asking a bit too much I would think

  13. theguywholikesfantasybaseball says:
    (link)

    Wait??? Does this show that Abreu is going to get better? Please, tell me more….

    • Dano

      Dano says:
      (link)

      @theguywholikesfantasybaseball: by xbabip alone, yes, but i haven’t seen much shift effect on him. Looks like a .200 BABIP but a .280 on pulled balls, but he also has almost as many balls in play to center so hopefully he won’t have the same effect as Fielder/McCann and moustakas.

  14. Ryan says:
    (link)

    Ubaldo or Taijuan Walker ROS? Keeper?

    • Dano

      Dano says:
      (link)

      @Ryan: random rough question to answer here. Walkers much better but injusry concern and innings limit will limit his value. Ubaldo could be a good spot starter.

  15. Fish says:
    (link)

    I’m having a hard time deciding what to do with Justin Upton. I’ve been uncomfortably watching his BABIP knowing that a declines feels almost inevitable given that his contact rate has declined and his K% is up. However, the Rest-of-season Player Rater has him listed in the top 15 hitters for OBP Yahoo! leagues.

    I’m not even sure what I should sell him for if I pursued that route.

    • Dano

      Dano says:
      (link)

      @Fish: only has 1 HR this month and can strikeout again with a sense of urgency. K-rate will remain up if he continues swinging for the fences (7% more flyballs than last year & a 6% HR/FB jump as well). He’s quite the asset in my obp + slg league but yea he should be a .268 guy by the end of the year. Nothing is wrong with 85-28-80-12-.265+ these days. In a win-now league, i’d trade him to a team for Dozier + OF replacement + SP/CL if that’s what i need.

  16. subs81 says:
    (link)

    bONIFACIO HAD HIS STREAK—SHOULD I DUMP HIM sTROMAN c Martinez OR k dAVIS WHO ARE ALL ON MY BENCH….

    5X5 12 TEAM ESPN MIXED

    • subs81 says:
      (link)

      OOPS FOR wong WHO AS THEY SAY SHOULD BE UP SOON (PLAYING REGULARLY?)

      • Dano

        dano says:
        (link)

        @subs81: I’d dump him for wong …might also be dumping Khris @ this point as well though…for Gregory polanco if somehow still there if this is a redraft league

  17. chisoxx22 says:
    (link)

    Santana and beltre have been less than expected should I hold or try to move one? My avg is horrendous but Marte contributes as well. Non keeper 8team roto 5×5

    • Dano

      dano says:
      (link)

      @chisoxx22: Starling marte is available? I’d pick him up but try to keep both Beltre and Santana at catcher.

  18. chisoxx22 says:
    (link)

    No I own marte. What about matt cain?

    • Dano

      Dano says:
      (link)

      @chisoxx22: i havent done a 8-team in so long. I would think there a ton of good options. can you try to trade cain? i would def keep marte, beltre & santana for c. cain is slightly better (i would think) then what he put up last year. I think he’s a 3.75era/1.2whip/150k guy. worse case sit him against high potent offensives outside of san fran.

  19. BRGMets says:
    (link)

    Dano,

    This was a great read, so glad I came across it–you have one more loyal reader and I am sending this to my co-gm.

    This may be way too much info for a question about a trade offer I received, but—-i’m in a long term keeper where players cost you your draft pick for their current draft round the following year +3rounds (with the caveat you can only keep 2 of any guys drafted in Rounds 1-5 from previous year including 2 from round 1 if you choose the next year so there is a team with Miggy and Goldschmidt and they can keep them again nxt year).

    7×7 H2H weekly Cats are – R, RBI, HR, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG, W, L, ERA, WHIP, K/9, Saves, QS.

    Trade is: I give up: Votto (1st nxt year) and Werth (would cost a 4th so not really a keeper)

    Receive: Prince (1st nxt year), Will Myers (9th nxt year), Carlos Santana (1/2 nxt year Not a keeper) and Joe Nathan (never would keep a closer)

    My Team if it helps evaluate:

    Buster Posey SF – C,1B; Joey Votto Cin – 1B; Ian Kinsler Det – 2B; Pedro Álvarez Pit – 3B José Reyes Tor – SS; Daniel Murphy NYM – 1B,2B; Austin Jackson Det – OF; Jayson Werth Was – OF; Evan Gattis Atl – C,OF; Leonys Martín Tex – OF; Howie Kendrick LAA – 2B; Emilio Bonifacio ChC – 2B,3B,OF; Coco Crisp Oak – OF

    Aramis Ramírez Mil – 3B [DISABLED LIST]; Kole Calhoun LAA – OF [DISABLED LIST]; Jurickson Profar Tex – 2B,3B,SS [DISABLED LIST];

    Starters – Aaron Harang Atl – SP; John Lackey Bos – SP; Yu Darvish Tex – SP; Zack Greinke LAD – SP; Jesse Chavez Oak – SP,RP; Chris Sale CWS – SP [DISABLED LIST];

    Closers – Greg Holland KC – RP; Koji Uehara Bos – RP; Huston Street SD – RP; Cody Allen Cle – RP; Sean Doolittle Oak – RP

    • Mets says:
      (link)

      Other offer was Votto for Hosmer & Sonny Gray same teams as above.

      • Dano

        Dano says:
        (link)

        @Mets: thanks Mets! and thanks for the ample background …i wouldnt want fielder or hosmer for votto – even less so since you have OBP as a category.

        Fielder will probably have an issue moving forward wiht the shift – will take time to change the approach; hosmer still has a gb% issue and will be capped at 15 homers this year unless he runs into luck.

        i do like gray alot but not for votto. werth is also a monster in obp leagues…he knows what he’s trying to do. I’d keep them both. Werth healthy in your league format is better than fielder THIS YEAR and def better than hosmer.

  20. Andre says:
    (link)

    What’s up everyone…

    I’m a Fernandez owner in a 10team H2H keeper league, with 5 keepers. I’ve been offered two separate trades. 1) Dee Gordon for Homer Bailey; 2) Verlander and Crush Davis for Braun, Y. Ventura, and Dom Brown plus two draft picks. I’m not as concerned about the draft picks but is Davis going to be turning it around anytime? Does Davis for Braun seem fair? After this trade my squad would look like this:

    C. Posey
    1b. Davis
    2b. Rendon
    3b. Arenado
    SS. Segura
    Inf. Hosmer
    Of. Craig, McCutchen, Heyward
    UTL. A. Pagan, Gardner
    Bn. Boegarts.

    Sp. Verlander, Iwakuma, Bailey, Gallardo, Hammel, Santana, Archer, Kazmir, Ryu, Keuchel
    RP. Soriano, Nathan, Robertson.
    Dl. Fernandez

    Thanks for the help!

    • Dano

      Dano says:
      (link)

      @Andre: if you really need pitching b/c of your jose loss, you’re not getting good enough upgrades here. Let me say i do like bailey but he’s sucked so far so you should try buying low. Is gordon low…maybe. But he’s winning you the SB category.

      verlanders great..but id ask for him without giving up yordano. i wouldnt want chris for braun.

Comments are closed.