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Poker players tend to make good DFS players.  Some of the top DFS pros are former poker pros.  I think there are several reasons for this occurrence.  First, there’s the element of the grind that is familiar, then there’s of course a similar aspect with bankroll management and also there’s a familiarity with odds and statistics.  There’s a lot of carry over and I want to chat a little about one of my favorite carry overs.  Most self respecting poker players have at least perused Doyle Brunson’s Super System.  This book is a bible on playing power poker.  For those that might be unfamiliar with the book and/or the term, it’s an aggressive style of play, but not being aggressive just for the sake of being aggressive.  It’s calculated aggression.  One of my favorite takeaways from this book was playing your rushes.  The cliff notes of Brunson’s thoughts when it comes to playing a rush is this: after he wins a hand in no limit hold ‘em, he plays the very next hand regardless of what two cards he is dealt.  If he wins that hand, he’s in the very next one and so on and so forth until he loses a hand.  In each of these subsequent hands, he’s a little more loose than normal.  This is something I always do when I play cards and it carries over to DFS for me as well.  If I have a winning night, you can bet I’ll be playing the next night.  If I win again, I’ll be right in there the next night as well, this time maybe making a jump to a higher buy-in tournament than I typically play.  Rudy would probably jump all over this saying there’s no data that backs up “running hot” or being on a “heater”, but that’s no fun.  There’s times where the lineups almost build themselves and things just click.  Maybe it’s a little thought of player that you’re riding or an underpriced player you are plugging and playing (Billy Burns at under $3K for 3 weeks anyone?).  Whatever the reason, have a little fun with your winnings and take a couple shots when you’re hot.  Now, let’s get to some picks to start that hot streak.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 18 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

But first, a quick shout out to Trezan, cousin of Tarzan who took down the Razzball Friends and Family league last Tuesday.  It luckily actually ran last week and Trezan took home the glory and the cash.  Trezan got a  nice pitching performance from Jason Hammel and a wonderful game from Carlos Correa to take the tournament down.  Nice work.

Danny Salazar, SP: $9,200 – Before I even sit down and check out the DraftKings pricing for the next day’s games I have an idea of guys that I’ll be targeting.  I’ll then make adjustments based on pricing.  I fully expected K-Zar to be more expensive than this.  Danny is always someone I look at based on the strikeout potential alone.  Next to Chris Sale, there’s no one with a higher strikeout ceiling.  He’s a slight road favorite in a game with a low 7 run total.  Add in the fact that Tampa Bay is top 5 in the league in strikeouts and I like Danny paired with a Sale or Gray as a great cash game duo.

Kyle Hendricks, SP: $6,500 – Hendricks has had a rough couple of outings the past two turns.  One was on the road in Minnesota which can be a surprisingly unfriendly place to pitch and the other was at home against the Dodgers, second in the league in OPS.  Tonight he draws the Mets and their third to last OPS and I’m suddenly back to buying what Hendricks is selling.  Before the 10 ER in 10 IP Kyle had only given up 8 ER in 32 IP and had been enjoying a nice uptick in his K-rate.  He hasn’t been much of a workhorse, only pitching beyond the 6th twice this year, but we’re at the point in the player list where we have to weigh price vs. expected points.  6 IP and 5 Ks with an ER should be enough to earn the victory against Niese and the Mets.  I’d take that.

Erasmo Ramirez, SP: $5,200 – We’re well into the bargain basement now and at this point, DraftKings is practically paying you to draft these guys.  I wouldn’t recommend Erasmo if you’re playing Salazar, but the salary relief he provides is just plain silly.  I’m not ready to fully give myself to the Eraser just yet, but I’ll sprinkle him into some lineups based on his recent success and his ludicrous low price.

Jonathan Lucroy, C: $3,100 – I may actually go contrary to my normal routine and pay up for a Wieters or Posey for cash games tonight.  By cash games I mean my $5 survivor teams.  If you’re looking for a cheap tournament play though, Lucroy is your guy.  He’s a catcher that bats 2nd, hits for average and has the platoon advantage tonight.  He’s had some success (6/13 with a HR) vs. Hamels in the past and if he does tonight, he should be very low owned which would go a long ways towards moving you up the leaderboard.

David Ortiz, 1B: $4,300 – The question is not if but when the regression fairies will pay Marco (Polo!) a visit.  Just like with Nick Martinez, I want to be there when Estrada’s world comes crashing down.  Big Poopi loves hitting in the Rogers Centre where he has 37 HRs, more than in any other park besides Fenway.

Chris Parmelee, 1B/OF: $2,900 – If you believe in the Marco Estrada story or you’re just looking to save a few bucks to buy Chris Sale, let’s go back to the Parmelee well together.  Last Tuesday he knocked a triple and a double in his first two ABs and finished 2 for 4.  Let’s hope he can finish the cycle tonight vs. Colby Lewis.

Rougned Odor, 2B: $3,900 – I’ve been abusing Odor at 2B recently and with 3 straight multi-hit games, it’s been to great success.  He should be leading off yet again, this time vs. Miguel Gonzalez who doesn’t strike a lot of fear in my heart.  Rock Odor tonight, don’t be embarrassed.

Chris Davis, 1B/3B: $4,200 – I’m all over Colby Lewis in Baltimore tonight as I am with most Ranger’s starters just about anywhere.  Lefties vs. Lewis enjoy a .781 OPS and I’m looking for Crush and Parmelee to get in on that action tonight.

Pablo Sandoval, 3B: $3,600 – There’s nothing Sandoval can’t hit.  He even got wood on this!  Besides just an excuse to get that snapshot in here, this is just more exposure to Marco Estrada and his impending doom.

J.J. Hardy, SS: $3,200 – JJ is not a lefty but none the less has enjoyed some success off Lewis.  Hardy is the BvP special for tonight’s slate.  He’s 5 for 15 with 2 HRs and would make a nice edition to the O’s stack or a fine, cheap tournament play.

Ryan Braun, OF: $4,300 – Braun is my runner up BvP special and it’s a shame the Brewer’s numbers are so good vs. Hamels.  The Brew Crew would be a sneaky stack if it weren’t for the nice BvP numbers.  A lot of people will look at those and before you know it half a tournament witll have Brewers stacks or mini stacks.  Braun is 10 for 31 with 3 HRs and 2 SBs off Hamels.  He sees him well and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cole knocked around some tonight.

Joc Pederson, OF: $4,300 – Will it be good Rubby or bad Rubby that shows up tonight?  Your guess is as good as mine, I can’t figure this guy out.  What I do know though is if Bad Rubby shows up, you’ll want to have some stake in Joc.

George Springer, OF: $4,300 – I’m finding it very tough to find decent, cheap OFs for tonight, I’m not sure why.  It seems like all the cheap options have bad match-ups , so it might be a night to pay up in the OF.  Springer has the platoon advantage against Danny Duffy and his 5+ ERA and shaky shoulder.

Ben Revere, OF: $4,200 – Taylor Jungmann is another fella whose act i don’t think keeps up.  The regression fairies owe Taylor a visit and I hear they really enjoy the city of Philadelphia.  There’s not a lot to love in the Philly lineup, but Maikel Franco and Ben Revere would be my top 2 targets to get a piece of Jungmann.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

It could be a wet one tonight folks.  My favorite stack of the night is in danger of a washout with 50ish percent chance of rain in Baltimore.  There’s also a 50% chance of rain and thunderstorms in Philly, Detroit, and Cincinatti.  Might be a good night to stay off the East Coast games and look West and towards the domes.

Doing Lines In Vegas

Sonny Gray and the A’s are the biggest favorites on the night, checking in with a -185.  There are two games with 6.5 point totals.  Nats vs. Braves features Zimmermann vs. Miller and Chris Sale vs. Lance Lynn go low in the White Sox. vs. Cardinals tilt.  The highest point total, a 9, shows up in two games tonight as well.  Boston at Toronto and LA Dodgers at Arizona.