Fantasy Baseball Advice

Andrew Bailey bettah work on his non-rhotic (Word of the Day!) pronunciations cause he’s headed to the town of beans.  This is my town and these are my beans!  Not to say I told you so, but to tell you I told you so.  When Melancon went to the Sawx, I said, “The GM over in Beantown says Melancon is “capable of closing.”  In big market speak, that means he won’t be the closer.  Melancon is the stereotypical small market closer, big market set-up man.”  Prescient ain’t just a word you need a spell checker for.  It’s a state of mind!  Bailey will be absolutely fine as a closer when he’s healthy, which is to say maybe 4 of 6 months of the season if the Sawx are lucky.  So Melancon will get some saves, say, maybe, I don’t know, interjection, 10 saves.  It’s not bad for a guy that won’t be drafted in many leagues.  This also solidifies the Sawx’s intention of putting Bard into the rotation.  I think it’s slightly crazy talk, but I’m wearing a burlap sack and drinking a Capri Sun without a straw so what do I know?  Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves and what they mean for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Sike!  Before we get into today’s post, just want to say that if you’re into fantasy basketball, you should check out the work Adam’s doing; it’s smart and funny, and I don’t know basketball at all.  One time I was playing a pick up basketball game and I tried to do a layup and I threw the ball over the backboard.  I was like, “Call me Calista Flockhart cause I’m throwing up shizz.”  Ah, the laughs we had.  Then I was never picked to play on a team again.  Anyway II, some offseason moves for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Josh Reddick – Heads to the A’s on the other side of the Bailey hullabaloo.  Did Beane get enough?  I don’t know.  Instead, let’s ask ourselves this:  Did Braun test positive because he was treating herpes?  In Triple-A, Reddick hit .127 in 2009, then .266 in 2010, then .230 last year.  So I’d be surprised if he hits above .260 over the course of the 2012 season.  He has shown the ability to hit for power, but now he moves to the unfriendly confines of Oakland.  Best case scenario, you’re getting a 15/10/.260 guy.  It’s all right, but if he fails to meet those modest expectations, he’s nothing but a third outfielder for AL-Only leagues.  Herpes, Braun, really?  That’s your defense?  That’s like telling your wife you killed her cat to take your mind off cheating on her.  Braun, you couldn’t say you tested positive because you were taking some non-FDA approved Chinese medicine for migraines?  Who’s advising this schmohawk?

Casey Blake – To Rockies.  When Blake’s healthy, Cuddyer will move to the outfield.  (30% of the time.)  When Blake’s injured, Cuddyer will play 3rd base.  (45% of the time.)  When Helton’s injured, Cuddyer will play 1st base. (20% of the time.)  When Cuddyer and Blake are both healthy, but the Rockies feel like playing someone else they’ll work in Seth Smith or Eric Young Jr.  (15% of the time.)  (I have no idea if those percentages add up, but you get the general gist.  By the way, General Gist would be a great band name.  “Have you heard General Gist’s new album, Neither Here Nor There?  It’s awesome!”  Speaking of great bands, loving the new Black Keys album.  Love!)  In the end, this has nothing to do with Casey Blake or Michael Cuddyer or even Nolan Arenado.  The Rockies absolutely refuse to give Seth Smith a regular job.  Maybe someone in the front office has a lisp and can’t stand to say Seth Smith has a starting job.  Oh, and they hate Eric Young Jr.’s guts.  The Rockies are Mike Scioscia and Eric Young Jr. is Mike Napoli.  Just trade that ain’t-getting-any-younger Young to a team that will let him play.  Please.

Sean Marshall – Off to the Reds in a swap of Marshall and Travis Wood.  Right now the Reds are saying Marshall may serve as the closer.  That’s just a bargaining tool against Francisco Cordero.  Marshall’s not going to be the closer.  He’ll be a setup man to either Cordero or Chapman, who is supposed to start as of right now but I don’t think that’s gonna happen either.  Here’s a formula for you:  What a GM Says + Reality = Nothing.

Travis Wood – To the Cubs in the aforementioned mentioning of Marshall.  I have a feeling the Reds are going to regret losing Wood.  Dusty Baker, “I haven’t lost wood since that one time in the 70′s when George Foster unexpectedly walked into my hotel room.”  If the Cubs play their hand right, they’ll send Wood to the minors to regain his confidence then bring him back when the time is right.  If he makes the rotation, he’s nothing but a cheap flyer in NL-Only leagues.  I would be very aware of him in keeper leagues though.  He does have number two starter upside.

Gio Gonzalez - Beane pulled another trade.  Can someone say Moneyball sequel?!  Actually, if you can’t say it, you should see a speech therapist.  How about the Nats looking like they’re gonna be contenders?  Hopefully they get some new announcers so it’s not as wretched watching them.  Get back Dibble so he can call into question a guy headed for Tommy John surgery!  I love that kind of manic enthusiasm.  Anyway, Gonzalez wasn’t nearly the pitcher his 3.12 ERA showed last year, but he has far exceeded his xFIP the last two years while posting solid K numbers.  I’m willing to get on the Gio aeroplane in twelve past twenty (BTW, that’s what I’m calling 2012, go with it).  A guy that is moving to the NL with a 8.78 K-rate is plenty all right, even with the wonky walks.

Brad Peacock – With Gio going to the Nats, Peacock gets inserted into the A’s.  That sounds like it hurts!  Which Billy Beane is making these trades anyway?  Peacock had a great season in Double- and Triple-A last year, putting up a 2.39 ERA and a 177/47 K/BB line.  The A’s basically got Gio Gonzalez back.  I’m gonna be all about Peacock in 2012 like I just woke up from a nap after drinking seven glasses of water.

Tommy Milone – Just another great arm bagged by Beane.  I’m not saying the Nats paid too much for Gio but — Well, actually, I am saying that.  They just paid the price of two potential Gios for one real Gio.  (Not to mention, A.J. Cole, who was also received, has a great arm but is just a bit young for our purposes, and Derek Norris will slide in nicely once the A’s move on from their Suzuki sidekick. What an ugly trade by the Nats.)  Milone’s 2011 in Triple-A was 3.22 ERA with a 155/16 K/BB ratio.  Hello, beautiful.  Peacock and Milone will have match-ups appeal in 2012 for mixed leagues and be sexy sleepers for AL-Only leagues.

Jim Johnson – O’s said he’ll open the season as the closer.  I’d go ahead and drink that Jim Johnson Kool-Aid.  O’s are competing for 4th place in the AL East so they have no reason not to use Johnson.  Though I think Selig now made the 4th place finisher in the AL East a playoff team.  Need to double check that.

Carlos Beltran – Cards add Beltran to their Rafael Furcal/Lance Berkman-powered lineup.  Your 2012 Cardinals are brought to you by Bengay and the used 1994 Chrysler LeBaron in your driveway.

2011 was supposed to be a big year for Shin-Soo Choo — he was coming off his 2nd straight 20-20 season, his looming military service requirement to the Korean government was in the rearview mirror and he was just entering his prime age. Many (including yours truly) predicted a true breakout, and drafted him as an OF1. The statline that ensued packed about as much punch as Ralph Wiggum’s love life. Choo started the season in a horrendous slump before being caught for a DUI, and from there his slump spiraled out of control. Finally and mercifully his season hit rock bottom when a thumb injury sidelined him for a long period of time. Hailing from a culture that holds honor and duty in very high esteem, it would be foolish to say that the distraction of the DUI was not at least partly to blame for his first half struggles.

The story takes a positive turn after that, as Choo successfully and uneventfully rehabbed from his injury and returned in the second half.  The results were enough to remind owners of why they spent a high draft pick. He flexed his 20-20 skillset, hitting 3 homeruns and stealing 4 bags in August to go along with an otherworldly .348 batting average. This resurgence was ultimately cut short when Choo fell victim to “the year of the oblique,” straining the pesky muscle and ending his season prematurely. When evaluating Choo for early 2012 drafts, I find myself largely ignoring his abysmal first half 2011 and looking to that solid month of August. In doing so I am trusting that the problems were largely between the ears and that he put them in the past in the 2nd half and will be fine for this season. His ADP currently sits in the 70s, which is a pretty sizeable value for a true 5 category threat with a proven floor of production.

While we are on the subject of toolsy outfielders, I may be in the minority but I’m buying Carl Crawford this year. Yes, last year was about as ugly as it gets, and yes he still will probably be relegated to hitting in a less-than-advantageous spot in Boston’s lineup in 2012. These rather unsavory facts aside, I think a pretty convincing reason can be made to draft Crawford at his current ADP (mid-late 3rd round). At a glance his paltry 11 homeruns look bad, but consider that his career average for homeruns in a season sits somewhere around 15. Additionally, his 2011 ISO is actually HIGHER than his career ISO. Recall that you are NOT drafting Crawford for his power. You drafted him because he is a speedster that hits double digit home runs. He hit that power mark last year, and will continue to do that going forward.

Since power is not Crawford’s game the bigger issue was obviously his inexplicable drop in steals from 47 in 2010 to 18 in 2011. The aforementioned position in the lineup certainly played a part, as did nagging injuries, but in my opinion the largest single factor in this drop was his utilization. I really think that the Red Sox put the brakes on his game. This year, sweeping changes have been made to the Red Sox in both the front office and managerial positions. Since they have made such a huge investment in Crawford, they will really have no choice but to turn him loose going forward. This, coupled with an additional year getting used to the “pressure” environment in Boston, makes me bullish on Crawford this year.

Some more quick busts turned 2012 fantasy baseball value picks:

Nick Swisher – Still hitting in a bandbox in a great lineup. Yankees do not have better options anyway.

Kevin Youkilis – GGOW (Greek God of Walks) getting drafted in the 6th round at a weak 3B position? Yes, please.

Ike Davis – The latest casualty to the Mets’ training staff looks like a fine value at the end of drafts this year. Keeping with our Simpsons theme, pretty sure Dr. Nick could do a better job than the scrubs treating these injuries.

Brandon Belt – Maybe we were a year early on the hype train? At a round 15 price tag, I’ll pay to find out.

Andre Ethier – No, we haven’t forgotten about you. If your knee is finally right you might win some leagues as a flier OF3.

Jaime Garcia – Not really a “bust,” but HUGE home/road splits kept him from realizing true potential. Maybe he’s afraid of airplanes? Could be huge if he figures out how to pitch on the road.

Jose Tabata – Bloom is off the rose a bit with nagging injuries, but Shane Victorino upside hasn’t gone anywhere.

Adam Dunn – There’s not much more that can be said about his 2011. Hopefully it really was Ozzie Guillen that was the problem and he could go back to hitting 40 HRs for his fantasy owners. Still hits in a favorable environment.

Pittsburgh Pirates 2011 Minor League Review

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America:

2011 (19) | 2010 (15) | 2009 (18) | 2008 (26) | 2007 (19) | 2006 (19)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [72-90] NL Central

AAA: [76-68] International League – Indianapolis

AA: [64-77] Eastern League – Altoona

A+: [74-63] Florida State League – Bradenton

A: [69-69] South Atlantic League – West Virginia

A(ss): [31-44] New York-Penn League – State College

The Run Down

With the first overall pick in the June draft, the Pirates selected Gerrit Cole and gave him $8 million upon signing.  Although I’m partial toward Trevor Bauer – Cole’s teammate at UCLA and third overall pick in June – Cole is probably a safer option, given his projectable frame and mechanics.  And while I doubt he’ll arrive before 2013, it’ll be fun to watch him destroy batters in Double-A (Cole was clocked at 102 MPH a month ago in the Arizona Fall League).  In addition to Cole, the Pirates’ system has quite a few high-ceiling arms:  James Taillon, Luis Heredia, and Stetson Allie all profile as frontline starters.  Unfortunately, though, they’re rather far from arriving in Pittsburgh.  Offensively, the Pirates’ system doesn’t have too much to be excited about for 2012.  Starling Marte has great potential and could yield some fantasy value, but I’m afraid we’re still a year or two away from him being viable option.  Josh Bell is probably Pittsburgh’s most promising offensive prospect, but the 19-year-old switch-hitting outfielder is a long ways off.  Until Cole arrives, there’s no one draft-worthy here.

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox

Nathan Baker (LHP); Gerrit Cole (RHP); Mike Colla (RHP); Jeff Inman (RHP); Jarek Cunningham (2B); Brock Holt (2B)

Graduated Prospects

Alex Presley (OF); Josh Harrison (3B); Michael McKenry (C); Chase d’Arnaud (SS); Tony Watson (LHP); Chris Leroux (RHP); Daniel Moskos (LHP)

Players of Interest

Hitters

Starling Marte | OF:

Marte spent all of 2011 at Double-A Altoona, slashing .332/.370/.500 in 572 trips to the plate.  What’s exciting to note, here, is that he seems to be developing the kind power that he’ll need as an outfield regular in the big leagues:  after posting a .121 ISO in 2009, followed by .141 2010, he continued the upward trend with a .168 ISO mark in 2011.  Marte is a fabulous defensive outfielder with a strong arm and good speed.  It’s likely that we’ll see him up with the Pirates by midseason.

Jordy Mercer | SS:

With 51 XBH (including 19 homers) in 551 plate appearances in 2011 between AA and AAA, Mercer has definitely surfaced on the Pirates’ radar.  The fact that he can play comfortably at short, second and third should also make him an attractive option for the big club.  Based on that versatility, along with a capable (although, not spectacular) bat, I expect Mercer to contribute in 2012.

Pitchers

Jeff Locke | LHP – SP:

Locke earned a September call up, which resulted in four big-league starts for the lefty.  Being that those starts weren’t particularly impressive (0-3, 6.75 FIP), and also that he has only five starts at the Triple-A level, I expect to see Locke back with Indianapolis in 2012.  Mixing a high 80s fastball with a curveball and changeup, he relies on plus command and overwhelms no one.  He definitely needs more work in the minors, but should a spot open in the Pirates’ rotation, Locke might get the first look based on his big-league experience.

Kyle McPherson | RHP – SP:

McPherson had a bit of a breakout year in 2011, posting a 2.96 ERA in 28 starts between Altoona and Bradenton.  The 24-year-old righty shows nice command of a fastball that touches 95, and counters with a tricky changeup that often misses bats.  Profiling as a third or fourth starter, McPherson will open 2012 in the Indianapolis rotation, and could be up with Pittsburgh before long.

Bryan Morris | RHP – RP:

Morris made the transition from starter to reliever in 2011 and performed well in his new role.  He features a nice curveball to pair with a power sinker that touches 95.  Depending on what the Pirates need at the top level, Morris has a chance to be in a Pittsburgh uniform out of camp and could be competing for saves at some point, provided Hanrahan struggles.

Honorable Mention

Hitters

Tony Sanchez | C:

The outlook on Sanchez isn’t quite as hopeful after his production slipped – both offensively and defensively – at AA in 2011.  However, it’s still safe to assume that the catcher will make it to Pittsburgh based simply on the merit of his defense.  While earlier projections saw Sanchez arriving in 2012, his struggles at Altoona have knocked him off that pace.  Don’t expect to see him behind the plate in the Majors until 2013.

Pitchers

Justin Wilson | LHP – SP/RP:

Wilson’s fastball, which consistently sits at 93-95, warrants excitement.  Lousy command, though, has tempered most expectations.  With quite a few promising arms competing for starts at the Triple-A level, I suspect Pittsburgh will move Wilson into more of a permanent relief role.  Improved command might elicit another look as a starter, but his quickest (and perhaps only) route to the big club is via relief.

Rudy Owens | LHP – SP:

After a tremendous 2010 in Double-A, Owens disappointed in 2012 at Indianapolis.  His 4.11 FIP in 2011 reflects slightly better than his 5.05 ERA, but these clearly are not numbers of a MLB-ready prospect.  If Owens cannot get back to his 2010 form, he’s looking at another full year in Triple-A.

 

Whenever I think of rookies playing for Dusty Baker, I think of the phrase, “Let them eat cake!”  So here we are again with another Reds rookie, Devin Mesoraco.  With Mesoraco, Cozart and Juan Francisco, I kinda want to take off my Zubaz and wear the Reds rookies as pants.  And following that to its natural conclusion, Mesoraco would be the crotch area of my pants.  And taking that to an even weirder place, I would have to dry clean my pants once a week.  Finally, I’d have to tell the dry cleaner that those stains were dried glue because I was pasting together a collage of Reds rookies.  Lastly, if you followed that, you’re sick, go see a shrink!  Last year, Mesoraco hit 15 homers and .289 in 499 Triple-A plate appearances, but did poorly in his short stint in the majors (2 homers, .180 in 53 plate appearances).  These numbers are in line with his past years in the minors.  He hits well once he adjusts to his new surroundings.  Maybe he doesn’t trust the baggage handlers with his security blanket and has to wait for it to arrive through snail mail.  So what can we expect from Devin Mesoraco for 2012 fantasy baseball?

He could be a cheap Carlos Santana or Jesus Montero.  No kidding, friend.  He has 25 homer power and can hit for a solid average.  In his last year at Triple-A, he had a .371 OBP, year before in Double-A he had a .363 OBP.  Mesoraco will also be in the middle of a solid lineup in a great home park.  Some would say, a Great American Ball Park.  Land of the free yadda yadda.  With Montero possibly not having catcher eligibility and Yankee hype swirling around him and Santana having the experience and the price tag, Mesoraco will end up on more of my teams than either player.  Assuming Dusty commits to playing him.  Yeah, that ‘assuming’ is large and once dated Roseanne Barr.  If Mesoraco gets 400 ABs (enough ABs for a mixed league catcher), I’ll give him the line of 55/18/65/.280, and definitely worth drafting in mixed leagues.  There is upside for more. *Grey drools*  Upside…

Peter Bourjos was one of my sleeper picks last year, so here we are doing our fantasy baseball 2012 sleeper posts with more of the same?  Yawn!  Hey, Random Italicized Voice, yawning and sleepers go hand in hand.  I’m going to ignore you said that.  Probably for the best.  You know the Sciosciapath on the top step of the dugout down there in the Los Angeles Suburb of Los Angeles?  He loves these players.  These Peter Bourjos players.  I’d argue — or at least state, as I’m about to do — that he’d give one of ‘these players’ 500 plate appearances even if they’re hitting .220.  Alberto Callapso saw 536 plate appearances last year just for rolling out of bed and getting to the ballpark on time to walk The Rally Monkey around the grounds so it didn’t shat in Scioscia’s office.  To go further, Bourjos’ glove will keep him in the lineup.  Like Michael Bay on a movie set, he’ll have his 500 PAs.  With or without Mike Trout, as the slightly-crazy Angel fan karaokes.  So that preemptively answers your “What about Mike Trout question?”  So what can we expect of Peter Bourjos for 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

It’s easy to write off Peter Bourjos as a speed-only guy and move on.  But where are you moving on to?  Is this a metaphorical ‘move on’ like when you go to a bar and put the metaphorical moves on metaphorical ladies?  He’s not a speed-only guy.  Last year, he had a .167 ISO, which would have him sandwiched between Torii Hunter and Billy Butler — Butler, “Did someone say sandwich?!”  Now these two guys aren’t huge power threats, but have some power.  Same with Bourjos.  If Bourjos can bump up his homers per fly ball, he could get to 17 homers.  I know, I know, and if Tom Cruise were taller, he could see the top of Katie Holmes’s head.  Know what else those two other players don’t have?  35 steal speed like Bourjos.  One year in the minors, he stole 50 bags.  That he only stole 22 bases last year is surprising.  He should be able to roll out of bed, walk The Rally Monkey for Callaspo and steal 30 bags.  Next year, I’ll give him the line of 85/15/50/.255/35 with considerable upside for more speed and a bit more power.  Jeepers, creepers how about that sleeper?!  Sorry, I’ll never do that again.