What time is it?! 8:25 AM! No, random italicized voice, it’s time for the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings. Second guess. All the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings will live in that link. The one that reads 2011 fantasy baseball rankings. It’s also at the top of the page. No, not “Home.” Between that, Fantasy Football and the Fantasy Baseball Forum link. Now we’re cooking with gas! If you’re a completist, follow us on Twitter or Facebook. I don’t go to either site longer than 2 minutes a month, but as ex-girlfriends have told me all you need is two minutes. Hmm… Maybe that’s why they’re ex. Nah, if I were a selfish lover, I wouldn’t have a mustache. Now my expositional half insists I breakdown some generalizations about these 2011 fantasy baseball rankings. The 2011 fantasy baseball rankings will be an ever-evolving mass like the blob. This fantasy baseball top 10 for 2011 list is as of right now and could potentially change with a big injury or Miguel Cabrera showing up at camp drunk, breaking a tooth on his maple bat as he tries to extract hops. So while it is the 2011 fantasy baseball gospel, take it with a tablet of salt. Tomorrow we will cover the rest of the top twenty for 2011 fantasy baseball then we will go around the horn with a top 20 list for every position. Then for pitchers and outfielders, I’ll turn the dial to 80. Listed next to each player are my 2011 projections. Did I consult with whoever else does projections? It would be ignorant not to, but in the end they are my projections. Players need 10 games at a position to get included in the positional rankings. Finally, as with each list in the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings, I will be mentioning where I see tiers start and stop. I look at tiers like this, if Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols are in the same tier, it doesn’t matter if one guy is ranked 1st and one guy is ranked 3rd, they’re both very close. It comes down to personal preference. I would prefer the guy at number one better than the guy at two, but you do you, I’ll do me and let’s hope we don’t go blind. Anyway, here’s the top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball:
1. Albert Pujols – Ho-hum, Pujols is first again. He’s not without some concerns. Specifically, he’s a Latin 30, his elbow is hella wonky and the Cards are two injuries away from Pujols hitting between Berkman and David Freese. But, see, there’s good distractions and bad distractions. Playing for a contract, good distraction. Swigging booze while a deputy has you pulled over? Bad distraction. Then there’s the bad distraction that is in fact a good distraction like Charlene from The Fighter, but that’s neither here nor there. “She’s MTV, Ma!” Oh, and this is the first tier. It goes from here until Votto. I call this tier, “The top five. Dur.” 2011 Projections: 105/37/115/.315/10
2. Hanley Ramirez – Just as Utley and A-Rod disappointed last year after being in the top five, there’s going to be at least one pitfall in this top five. My guess is it’ll be Hanley, but I have nothing to back that up other than my gut and my gut only scored a 750 on the SATs. In 2008, Hanley hit 33 home runs. In 2009, 24. Last year, 21. Who is he? Garrett Atkins? Maybe, but let’s hear from Mr. Brightside, “He has shortstop eligibility.” Good point, friend. 2011 Projections: 100/26/100/.310/25
3. Miguel Cabrera – I originally had Miggy ranked number one, but I’d be lying if I said I’d pick Miggy over the top two after his DUI. I had Miggy number one, not simply to be different from every Tom, Dick and Berry, but I really believed he was about to put up a career season. Then he started touring the country with his traveling production of “Leaving Las Vegas” and I got cold feet. I’m still looking forward, not looking back. Miggy will be 28-years-old for the majority of the 2011 season and he’s solidly in his prime. He doesn’t give you ten steals like Pujols. So what? I’m a rock star. You know what Pujols doesn’t give you? Healthy elbow tendons. Miggy’s power and plate discipline (except at a buffet) were already fantastic and they’re trending up. And now he has Victor Martinez in the lineup. Yes, please and thank you. Don’t let his run-in with the law change your mind too much on him. Like Miggy should’ve done, just temper yourself. 2011 Projections: 110/37/120/.320/5
4. Evan Longoria – I’ll admit it. I’m going outside the box and turning it inside out. Hey, if you want last year’s rankings, search the sidebar. This is a brave new world, Huxley. What, you don’t want a 35-homer, in-his-prime 3rd baseman? That’s cool. I’d like to play in a league with you. Sure, he only hit 22 home runs last year. His HR/FB% was also way off from his career. His K-rate was down, his walk rate was up, he will hit 30 home runs in 2011. Probably more. Plus, he doesn’t have to carry around the dead weight of Tony Parker anymore. 2011 Projections: 105/33/115/.280/10
5. Joey Votto – I got no qualms about Joey Votto. In my post titled, “Sir Votto Left Foot: The Player of Loco Dusty,” I said, “16 steals last year is not the high end. It’s the high end taking off the high end’s ceiling and making a new high end. He’s closer to a 8-12 steal guy. Still good, but cuts his value a bit. 37 homers are terrific. Don’t think he gets there again either. He’s more of a 30-35 homer guy. Still good, but cuts his value a bit. In 2010, he swung at more balls outside the strike zone than in 2009. Not a terrific trend. What I think was going on is everything he was hitting was falling in so he was like, “What the eff, I’m going to swing at everything.” Average might come down next year. Not too low, probably closer to .310.” And that’s me quoting me! Oh, and with all of that undercutting his 2010, Votto is still a top five pick. Yeah, he’s that good. 2011 Projections: 95/32/110/.310/10
6. Ryan Braun – Yeah, I’ve read all the articles talking about the end of Braun’s power as we know it. It’s a sad story, I know. I also don’t buy it. I’ve watched Braun enough to know he’s a 30+ home run hitter. He doesn’t hit warning track flies that get blown out by Bernie the Brewer’s burps. He hits bombs. I know that’s not scientific, but it’s true. His HR/FB% was off last year, he’s cut his K-rate and can steal 15 bases. Even in last year’s off year, he was a top 20 hitter for fantasy. I’m sorry if you think I’m being stubborn here, but Braun’s a five category performer and the first outfielder I’m taking. Oh, and this is a new tier. This tier ends at A-Gon. This tier is called, “I’m totally fine drafting my first player from this tier.” 2011 Projections: 105/32/120/.295/15
7. David Wright – Usually fantasy baseball ‘perts overrate the previous season and don’t look at the last three years. Other ‘perts more than me. You’re welcome. But that makes Wright’s case an odd one. People still seem hung up on 2009. As I said in the preseason last year, “Prior to last year, three of the last four years Wright’s HR/FB rates were above 16 percent. Last year, he had a home run to fly ball rate of 6.9. So I’m chalking some of last year up to bad luck.” In 2010, his HR/FB% bounced back to 15.5% and he hit 29 home runs again. Fluky shizz can happen like in 2009, but Wright is not a 10 home run hitter. As Extenze commercials should say, “Don’t sweat the small stuff.” 2011 Projections: 95/30/105/.285/17
8. Troy Tulowitzki – I’m massively concerned about ranking Tulowitzki here. To borrow heavily from Jesse Malin, Tulo smells like cigarettes and violets. With every positive there’s a negative. He had only 12 home runs entering September, but he still hit 27 home runs. He’s terrible in April, but championships are won in September. He’s always getting injured, but he’s only 26-years-old. Finally, shortstop is just so damn shallow. 2011 Projections: 95/30/105/.280/15
9. Prince Fielder – So many players could’ve been listed here. I’m sure I’ll hear a lot of them in the comments. Crawford, Cano, CarGo, etc. etc. etc. They’ll be in the top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball. I didn’t forget about them. I’m just stacking my top 10 with potential 40 home run hitters. I’m sorry if you don’t understand, I hear ESPN puts out a nice fantasy product. Don’t overrate the previous year’s numbers. Fielder is notorious for his on one year and off the next year cycle. 2011 is the year he should be on. Also, don’t overrate his lack of RBIs last year. It’s a flukey category, hirame. Fielder can easily knock in 120 RBIs in 2011. Remember he knocked in 141 RBIs in 2009. Sure, the big-bellied don’t age well, but he’ll still only be 27-years-old for the majority of 2011. Here’s a sneak preview of a July post title celebrating Fielder, “Fatty Goes Batty.” 2011 Projections: 100/38/115/.280
10. Adrian Gonzalez – He was a little low on his HR/FB% last year, so 31 homers seems like the lowest total you can expect. Before you even sit at the Razz counter, I know what you want. It’s a 30+ home run 1st baseman. A-Gon at your service. Now don’t forget to tip your server. This hairnet I’m wearing doesn’t grow on trees. For further Adrian Gonzalez fantasy news regarding his trade to Boston, click that linkie-ma-jig. 2011 Projections: 100/37/110/.280
