Yusei, I Talk Shota All The Time

For the record, I debated on who I wanted to cover this week; but, let’s be honest, this is my cop-out to say I’m going to talk about both of them. Sorry, not sorry. I wanted to highlight both Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga and Jays pitcher Yusei Kikuchi. It’s also not an accident. Both are pitchers who previously excelled in the NPB, both are left-handed pitchers with their own “crafty” mechanics, and both sit around the mid-90s with velocity. I promise you though, this is supposed to be about Shota Imanaga.

Yusei Kikuchi has been in the league for five years now. And through mixed results, he’s always shown the potential for more. A glimmer at repeating the success of his sophomore season in the majors while on the Mariners. Bear with me here:

Last year Kikuchi had a rough patch in May but then found his mojo again in June, and then carried it over into the second half. The simple question we can ask is, “what worked?” Central to Kikuchi’s success was adjusting his primary breaking balls, the slider and curveball. By dialing down the velocity on these pitches, leveraging their increased break to complement his fastball and changeup effectively. I like him a lot, and I’d love to go into more detail on him, but, that’s a story for another day. Now back to Imanaga.

Why am I talking about the 2 them at the same time? Well, look at the average for their last 3 seasons in NPB:

These 2 pitchers aside from handedness also share a pitching profile… The catch though, Imanaga is better. He possesses all the life and misses that Kikuchi can muster, but with much better command. Kikuchi was scored as having 45-grade command, whereas Imanaga is coming in with 70-grade command. And I think that will be the difference maker. His 3-year ratios also put him in close competition with Yamamoto’s efficiency.

Fast forward to this spring, and Shota Imanaga signed a 4-year $53M contract with the Chicago Cubs, in what seems like a discount compared to the 5-year $75M that a similarly aged Senga got from New York. Imanaga in the NPB was a very successful pitcher in his own right, and to his credit, was the starting pitcher tabbed with the start in the WBC Final versus the United States. Borrowing from my Yamamoto post, here is how Imanaga compares to other elite pitchers who have transitioned from the NPB.

Imanaga’s performance in Japan is undeniable, boasting impressive strikeout and walk rates that rival some of the others that have come over. With a stellar 29.5% strikeout rate and a mere 3.7% walk rate this past season, Imanaga’s numbers compare similarly to MLB starting pitcher Kevin Gausman, perhaps you’ve heard of him. Shota’s teammates are already impressed with him:

I watched Sh?ta Imanaga throw a bullpen today.. I’m on eBay now looking for cards. Guy is filthy. ?

— Justin Steele (@J_Steele21) February 8, 2024

He says filthy, clunky segue. Looking at his pitching arsenal, Imanaga showcases a dangerous combo of filthy pitches from a unique arm slot. His four-seam fastball boasts a ridiculous amount of induced vertical break (IVB), or rise, that has measured around 20 inches during the WBC with an elite spin rate. That would put him in the running for the top 5-7% among MLB pitchers. He can use this to his advantage paired with his shorter stature (5’10”) to pound the top of the zone with his command from a challenging approach angle of around 5’5″ that maximizes the perceived velocity. Complemented by a devastating slider and a splitter, he has a lot of life on his pitches that allow him to keep hitters off-balance.

Let’s pause again to talk about splitters. Splitters are all the rage in the NPB, and have recently begun to rise in popularity now here in the states. You can read more about it in my Yamamoto post and my Senga post. Well, he features a really good one too. The plot twist, of course, he’s left-handed. MLB has not seen a left-handed pitcher with a good splitter in quite some time. He is unique. That will likely play to his advantage along with his low release angle to catch a lot of batters swinging. He’s new, he’s different. It’s really hard to plan for something you have never seen especially when you have a split-second to decide if it’s a rising fastball or a diving splitter.

To get an idea of how difficult he can be on hitters, here’s Seiya Suzuki getting his first crack at him in camp this spring (It does not go well):

Sh?ta Imanaga, Uncomfortable At Bat.https://t.co/jyj8V2LuxM pic.twitter.com/BoikDfmTyw

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 22, 2024

Despite his impressive resume, Imanaga’s transition to MLB is not without its challenges. With a ground-ball rate below the league average in NPB, there’s some doubt about his ability to limit home runs. Imanaga’s home run rate (1.0 HR/9 in his career) raise valid concerns in the current MLB environment that focuses on power-hitting. This however is not a death sentence, as Kikuchi too has found some success despite the long ball, as has fellow Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish during his time in Chicago. If the swing and miss is there and the command can limit walks, then many of these potential fly balls can be limited to solo shots—something Yusei has struggled with.

Imanaga is a very talented pitcher, and given his profile history with strong command and shiny strikeout rate I’m willing to go in on his current pricetag just inside pick 200 in drafts where his ADP currently sits around 187. I’ll give him a projection for now of 3.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 over 144 IP with a chance for more. If he can return even half the value that Senga did in his first year this pick will easily pay for itself. This late in the draft if he doesn’t work out you can cut him without losing much ground. I will admit I have some hesitation in the early going starting him against elite offenses and in say Great American Ballpark, but I’m ready to give him a shot in all other contexts.

If you want more Coolwhip to top off your baseball experience, fantasy or otherwise, you can follow me on Twitter: @CoolwhipRB.