Another year at the dawn of spring, I find myself daydreaming again as camp kicks off and the sound of baseball bathes the early weekend air like the morning dew. While sipping my coffee, the sounds of baseball from my TV set fade into the white noise of a busy street-side market; I’m again swept off to an alternate world where I’m drinking coffee in a Moroccan street cafe. My passport expired a couple of months ago, how can I be here? Is this dream? While sorting through my confusion, a young girl passes by me wearing a turquoise satchel. And then I see it, on that satchel is a pin. A pin of a sword entombed within a grand tree. A whisper of “Sean Manaea” echoed in the wind.
Two years ago, I took you on a grand adventure through my dreams and unlocked the Secret of Manaea‘s evolution backed by some fancy pitch design analytics. He looked as though he had turned the page to become a solid number two or three. He finished that 2021 season with better peripherals than before and though the ratios didn’t show it, it looked like he was emerging a better pitcher just in need of a bit better luck. And then he got traded to the Padres.
| Season | Team | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | OAK | 160.2 | 6.05 | 1.79 | 1.18 | 3.59 | 1.08 |
| 2019 | OAK | 29.2 | 9.10 | 2.12 | 0.91 | 1.21 | 0.78 |
| 2020 | OAK | 54.0 | 7.50 | 1.33 | 1.17 | 4.50 | 1.20 |
| 2021 | OAK | 179.1 | 9.74 | 2.06 | 1.25 | 3.91 | 1.23 |
| 2022 | SDP | 158.0 | 8.89 | 2.85 | 1.65 | 4.96 | 1.30 |
There’s a lot of noise throughout his last 5 years. But one thing is for certain, he looked as though he was turning a corner, posting a 10+ K/9 in the second half of 2021, and then last year he took a significant step back. Ks dropped a whole point per nine, walks jumped almost as much, and home runs jumped as well. Everything bad basically. The magic was fading and something had gone wrong.
After gaining velocity for the last couple of seasons, Manaea took a step back in 2022. His sinker dropped from 92.1 to 91.2 and, to make matters worse, his changeup actually climbed in velocity which reduced the separation from his sinker. Not good Bob. As primarily a sinker-changeup guy, that’s not a recipe for success and much closer resembles one for disaster. But wait, there’s more.
I was surprised to learn this, Manaea’s elite changeup has actually been losing its drop year over year (hey, even us analysts miss details from time to time). This is even more evident when compared to the field: pitchers with similar velocity. His changeup last year dropped to below average for the first time in his career. His changeup went from a -10 run value to a +11 last year (that’s bad). When you don’t have elite velocity you need two of movement/deception/location on your side to be an effective starting pitcher. As you saw above, the location and velocity were getting worse… and now you see movement too. All that worked in his favor last year was his elite extension, but everything else was subpar. The promise he showed was dying on the vine.
Now, back to the year 2023. This offseason Sean Manaea was signed by the Giants to their patented 2-year starting pitcher retread contract. You may remember from such pitchers as Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Carlos Rodon, the list goes on. You check around with the beat writers and you notice that the Giants have had their eye on Manaea for a long time ever since he played on the other side of the bay. The Giants many times have turned formerly touted pitchers into successful pitchers again (Gausman anyone?). Point is, there’s a track record of them getting pitchers to be successful again after they buy low, and let someone else pay the renewal premium later. What is it that they see in him or hope to fix?
The first thing that should help is calling the Giants’ Oracle Park home. Well-known and forever regarded as a pitcher haven, Oracle Park has suppressed home runs. So limiting runs is already going to trend in his favor some with neutral luck. As good as the Giants have been in the past at “fixing” pitchers, the Padres arguably have been as bad at not helping their pitchers. Can’t think of the last time someone went to San Diego and got better. Musgrove did, but it was doing things he had already shown the previous season, some of which I pointed out in my sleeper of him, here, back in 2021. As to the Giants, they probably want to tweak his changeup in hopes of regaining the elite vertical drop it once had and adjust his sequencing, which the dads couldn’t deliver. And there’s reason to believe this:
The Giants have a deep and recent history of getting results from pitchers who feature a sinker-changeup combo. This has taken the form of guys like Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, and Alex Wood. Sound familiar? Yes, many of the same guys they are signing to 2-year contracts. Wood had a great first season with the Giants and Cobb showed plenty of promise last year when healthy. And Webb is webbing it up. They get results.
Finally, after I sufficiently buried the lede, this offseason Sean Manaea went to Driveline and cleaned up his mechanics… and showed up to camp as a new man.
Sean Manaea said he was 93-96 mph in his two innings today. He was 88-90 at the start of last spring. Said he can feel a difference after working out at Driveline in the offseason.
— Alex Pavlovic (@PavlovicNBCS) February 26, 2023
That’s right fam, Sean Manaea has increased his velocity by a factor of five. *Flashing red lights across the screen* Big news if this is any kind of sustainable for the season. Looking at his velocity logs month-to-month, Manaea has historically gotten stronger as the season goes on. So if he can build on this at all and sit in the mid-90s with his sinker, we could be in for a big breakout season from him. If he does that, and if the changeup gets any of its old break back (something around 35″ drop or better), we could be looking at a young Alex Cobb type of season. And there’s plenty to be excited about in that.
At a current ADP close to 300, which will no doubt be climbing with each IP of mid-90s sinkers. Now is the time to get him while he’s cheap for a front-row seat to his comeback party. At cost, there is almost no risk and free ROI for the investment. If any of this sticks we could get something by the way of 170 IP and a 3.50 ERA and 1.20 WHIP; and if the command comes back, a chance for more. In my opinion, an easy lottery ticket on an established pitcher with improved stuff.
If you want more Coolwhip to top off your baseball experience, fantasy or otherwise, you can follow me on Twitter: @CoolwhipRB.
