On Aug. 2 last year, the Washington Nationals sent Juan Soto and Josh Bell to the San Diego Padres in exchange for Luke Voit and a host of prospects in MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell, Jarlin Susana, and James Wood.
Voit is no longer with the Nationals and was never considered a key part of the trade. The last three players listed are still in the minors. Hassell entered the season ranked as the 57th best prospect by Baseball America, 35th by MLB.com, and 66th by Baseball Prospectus while Wood is ranked 11th, 17th, and 3rd, respectively. Susana is only 19 years old, so it will be a while to see if he ever makes it to the Nationals. much less as a top 100 prospect.
Key Piece
Gore and Abrams are currently playing for the Nationals and were key parts of the deal. I like Abrams, and for deep dynasty leagues, he is a keeper. But I like Gore a whole lot more.
Selected as the third overall pick in the 2017 draft out of Whiteville High School in Whiteville, North Carolina, Gore was already a top 100 prospect in 2018, ranking 26th (BA), 19th (MLB) and 29th (BP). By the end of 2021 Gore was a top 10 prospect.
Now in his second season in the majors, has Gore lived up to the lofty prospect rankings? Not really. In ESPN and Yahoo leagues, many players don’t consider Gore worthy of a roster spot as he is rostered in 21% of ESPN leagues and 48% of Yahoo leagues.
Does that mean he is not a solid dynasty keeper?
Those roster percentages really don’t take into account dynasty leagues. In Fantrax leagues, Gore is rostered by 94% of teams, a number that is about right as I think Gore is only scratching the surface of what he can do.
MacKenzie Gore
| YEAR | TEAM | W-L | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | WHIP | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-22 | MINORS | 12-12 | 250.1 | 195 | 85 | 320 | 2.91 | 1.119 | 3.76 |
| 2022 | SD | 4-4 | 70.0 | 66 | 37 | 72 | 4.50 | 1.471 | 1.95 |
| 2023 | WAS | 3-5 | 74.2 | 71 | 32 | 87 | 3.74 | 1.379 | 2.72 |
Dominating the Competition
There was a reason why Gore quickly climbed the prospect rankings during his time in the minors – he simply overpowered opposing hitters. From 2017-2022, he averaged 3.76 strikeouts to every walk. In 250.1 innings, he fanned 320 batters while only allowing 195 hits, or seven hits per nine innings of work.
Gore did have some control issues in the minors, but nothing that was too worrisome as he averaged 3.1 BB/9 IP, and those numbers were inflated by a 5.0 BB/9 rate in 2021.
Showing his Stuff
Gore experienced both highs and lows during his rookie campaign with the Padres last year. Making three starts in April, Gore went 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA and 1.174 WHIP. In 15.1 innings of work, he allowed only 12 hits and six walks while striking out 20, an 11.7 K/9 rate.
He was just as good in May as he was 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 1.013 WHIP while striking out 9.1 batters per nine innings.
The Speed Bump
As good as Gore was the first two months of the season, he struggled quite a bit in June before the wheels fell off in July. Gore posted a 7.27 ERA in June with a 1.962 WHIP. While he was still striking out 9.3 hitters per nine innings, he gave up 20 hits and walked 14 in 17.1 innings.
Then came July. In 10.2 innings of work, Gore had a 10.97 ERA and 2.250 WHIP. Even more shocking was the fact his strikeout rate dropped to 5.9/9 innings. The Padres had already moved Gore to the bullpen to limit his workload, but he had to come out of a game on July 25th and was put in the IL the next day with left elbow inflammation. That outing would be his final outing with the Padres and final game in the majors that season.
Off to Washington
Despite his injury, the Nationals wanted Gore as part of the Soto trade. They had hoped he would be able to pitch for them in September. But after struggling through four minor league starts at Triple-A Rochester (5.25 ERA, 1.667 WHIP), they decided to shut him down and wait until this season for him to make his Nationals debut.
| YEAR | PITCH TYPE | % THROWN | MPH | BA | XBA | SLG | XSLG | WHIFF% |
| 2023 | Fastball | 59.5% | 95.2 | .298 | .286 | .484 | .483 | 21.9% |
| 2023 | Curveball | 20.4% | 83.4 | .186 | .161 | .357 | .288 | 45.9% |
| 2023 | Slider | 19.2% | 88.5 | .191 | .276 | .298 | .453 | 40.3% |
| 2023 | Changeup | 0.9% | 87.6 | .333 | .170 | .333 | .220 | 33.3% |
| 2022 | Fastball | 60.9% | 94.7 | .232 | .264 | .351 | .429 | 18.7% |
| 2022 | Curveball | 18.0% | 80.8 | .250 | .251 | .400 | .474 | 31.9% |
| 2022 | Slider | 15.7% | 87.4 | .286 | .257 | .408 | .422 | 31.9% |
| 2022 | Changeup | 5.3% | 84.8 | .333 | .213 | .556 | .355 | 44.0% |
While suffering through some rough outings, Gore has been solid for the Nationals this season. His ERA sits at 3.74 and he is averaging 10.5 K/9. He is still struggling to command his pitches, walking 3.9 batters per nine innings, but in his last 23.2 innings, he has issued only five walks, three of those coming Thursday night against Houston.
What is really encouraging is the fact his velocity and spin rates are all much higher across the board than last season. Name a pitch, Gore is throwing it harder and with more spin, showing that he appears to be over the elbow issue from last year.
A Healthy Elbow
Look at his curveball and slider, the two pitches that put the most strain on the elbow. Last year his slider averaged 87.4 mph with a spin rate of 1,957 rpms. Meanwhile, his curve came in at 80.8 mph with a spin rate of 2,293. The results led to whiff% of 31.9% for each pitch.
This year the slider is up to 88.5 mph with a spin rate of 1,987 – not a huge increase over last year, but enough to add a little more break (2.7 inches this year compared to 2.1 last year) to the pitch and leading to a whiff% of 40.3%. His curveball is nearly three mph faster this year, averaging 88.5 mph. The spin rate is also up to 2,331 rpms. Like the slider, thanks to the increased break on his pitch (1.2 inches vs. 0.6), opposing hitters have a 45.9% whiff rate against the curve.
While hitters actually have a better batting average against Gore’s fastball this year compared to last year, hitters are batting less than .200 against the curve and slider with low slugging percentages as well.
On The Right Track
As I have mentioned a lot, young pitchers are hard to deal with in dynasty leagues because of the many highs and lows they often go through. I know what a veteran pitcher will likely give me, but a young pitcher is impossible to count on.
But you can’t ignore young pitches in dynasty leagues as eventually those youngsters become established veterans who you can count on. Gore is one of those pitchers.
He will hit a few more bumps in the road, but he has also shown what he can do as a major leaguer. His first two months with the Padres last year were outstanding and he appears to be completely healthy this season. Thanks to a team that is rebuilding, Gore is already the ace for the Nationals. But by next season I think he will be no less than a No. 2 pitcher on a dynasty staff with the potential to anchor your rotation.
