Happy NFL Draft Day, sports fans! Today it is April and next week it will be May. After May comes June, followed by July, otherwise known as MLB Draft month. To be frank, my preseason top-15 is already outdated, as is MLB Pipeline’s top-100 posted months ago. I’d be willing to bet my second-born child (lost my first in a poker game last month) that Chase Dollander is NOT the second player off the board and is in fact not a lock to go in the top five. I’ll also tell you there’s a chance Dylan Crews goes second overall, not first. And there might even be a player currently ranked in the top-five overall that I could see falling into the 20s. Oh yeah, and only six of the top-20 are pitchers. Who are they? What has changed? Well, you’ll have to make like Oliver Twist and pound the button below to find out.
Feb. 16: Top-15 College Draft Prospects
1. Paul Skenes | RHP | LSU (Previous: 10)
2. Dylan Crews | OF | LSU (Previous: T1)
3. Wyatt Langford | OF | Florida (Previous: T1)
4. Jacob Wilson | SS | Grand Canyon (Previous: 7)
5. Rhett Lowder | RHP | Wake Forest (Previous: 8)
6. Enrique Bradfield Jr. | OF | Vanderbilt (Previous: 5)
7. Brayden Taylor | INF | TCU (Previous: 4)
8. Hurston Waldrep | RHP | Florida (Previous: 6)
9. Chase Dollander | RHP | Tennessee (Previous: 3)
10. Brock Wilken | 3B | Wake Forest (Previous: 11)
11. Will Sanders | RHP | South Carolina (Previous: 12)
12. Jake Gelof | 3B | Virginia (Previous: 14)
13. Jacob Gonzalez | SS | Ole Miss (Previous: 9)
14. Yohandy Morales | 3B | Miami (Previous: NR)
15. Matt Shaw | INF | Maryland (Previous: 13)
16. Kyle Teel | C | Virginia (Previous: NR)
17. Tommy Troy | SS | Stanford (Previous: NR)
18. Nolan Schanuel | 1B/OF | Florida Atlantic (NR)
19. Juaron Watts-Brown | RHP | Oklahoma State (Previous: NR)
20. Travis Honeyman | OF | Boston College (Previous: NR)
Dropped from Rankings: Maui Ahuna, SS, Tennessee
The Top Three
Dylan Crews has been nothing short of sensational this season. There’s no debate about that: .485/.636/.841, 11 HR, 12 2B, 66 R, 44 RBI, 24.1 BB%, 10.2 K%. The OPS is pushing 1.500 and he’s reaching in over 63% of plate appearances 40 games into the season. Safe to say, he won’t be on the board at No. 3 and is all but a lock to be the first bat (college or prep) selected. So what gives? LSU teammate Paul Skenes, that’s what: 7-1, 59 1/3 IP, 1.97 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 17.4 K/9, 1.8 BB/9. The stuff is simply too elite. It’s generational. He’s striking out 17.4 batters per nine while playing in the SEC, consistently touching 100 MPH deep into starts. I have Skenes graded as the top college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. That screams No. 1., which means I’m predicting Skenes, Crews, then Langford (.374/.527/.740, 9 HR, 21.9 BB%, 12.4 K%). That could create the bargain of the century for Langford at three. Try to comp him to someone other than Mike Trout. Seriously. Try. There’s no one built physically like Langford with his combination of power, speed, and plate discipline in the MLB.
Movement in the Middle
Brayden Taylor remains my favorite position player in the class outside of Langford, although he’s certainly been outplayed by his constituents thus far. That’s all relative, as Taylor is still slashing .277/.412/.594 with 14 taters, eight steals, a 17.7 BB%, and 19.8 K%. Meanwhile, Jacob Wilson has been unsurprisingly fantastic (.415/.468/.652, 4 HR, 5 SB), owning just five strikeouts on the season for a 3.2 K%. As for the arms, Hurston Waldrep’s stuff looks even better than expected as his splitter is the best off-speed pitch in the class, paired with a mid-to-upper 90s heater and pair of mid breaking balls — but the majority of his starts have featured a surplus of early scoring followed by dominance in the middle innings: 6-2, 58.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 14.4 K/9, 4.7 BB/9. Elsewhere, Chase Dollander has taken a step back while Rhett Lowder (8-0, 62 2/3 IP, 1.72 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 2.0 BB/9) looks every bit the part of a future one or two. Not to mention one of the best names in the history of sports.
New Additions
Not having Yohandy Morales in the original top-15 was probably a mistake, just like including Maui Ahuna was in the first place. Morales (.363/.435/.631, 10 HR, 12 2B, 7 SB, 11.4 BB%, 20.1 K%) possesses one of the finer blends of raw power and hit tool in the draft and has been crushing all spring. Kyle Teel (.407/.474/.653, 8 HR, 17 2B, 3 SB, 10.0 BB%, 12.1 K%) is the best collegiate backstop in the class and could definitely become a first rounder, but it’s FAU’s Nolan Schanuel (.450/.606/.907, 15 HR, 11 SB, 22.1 BB%, 7.0 K%) who might be one of the most overlooked college bats in the history of the sport. Oklahoma State’s Juaron Watts-Brown (4-2, 53 1/3 IP, 3.88 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 14.0 K/9, 5.4 BB/9) has the chance to be something special at the next level, but is far from a finished product with his command and fastball. Most notably, Jacob Gonzalez (.322/.449/.566, 7 HR, 0 SB, 15.5 BB%, 12.4 K%) dropped four spots to No. 13 despite being ranked as the No. 5 overall prospect in the entire draft according to MLB Pipeline. I don’t see Gonzalez’s mechanics translating to the next level once he’s done with the metal and when I put him head-to-head against the 12 prospects above him, I found myself picking against him every single time. This may not be how the draft plays out in reality, but he wouldn’t be an option until picks 20-30 for me.
That’s all for this week, Razzball fam! As always, I’m happy to take this conversation into the comments section or on Twitter, where you can find me @WorldOfHobbs.
