The 2011 fantasy baseball rankings have reached the next to next to next to last stop with the top 20 closers for 2011 fantasy baseball. These top 20 closers are different than all of the other rankings. The closers on the top of this list you should not draft and there are closers that aren’t on this list that you should be targeting. Shortly, there will be a list of every team’s closer and setup man. The projections are also a bit wonky since you can’t predict saves. It’s a fool’s errand. If fool’s errand means what I think it does. Some well-known projectionists (not the pimply kid unspooling The King’s Speech) don’t even attempt to predict saves. Saves come down to opportunity. This is yet another reason why you shouldn’t draft the top guys. Nevertheless, my projections are listed along with where I see tiers starting and stopping. Anyway, here’s the top 20 closers for 2011 fantasy baseball:
1. Carlos Marmol – To illustrate further why you shouldn’t draft a top guy, three of the top four closers when rankings came out last year were Joe Nathan, Papelbon and Broxton. As for the shocker at the top of my rankings, Marmol struckout 138 hitters in 77 2/3 IP. The only thing shocking to me is how he’s not the number one closer for everyone. As I’ve already said in this post, you can’t count on saves. You can count on crazy strikeouts though. This is the first tier. This tier goes from here until Brian Wilson. I call this tier, “The guys you can’t afford to draft unless they fall a few rounds.” 2011 Projections: 5-3/2.90/1.20/120, 40 saves
2. Neftali Feliz – To be brutally honest, I think other ‘perts aren’t ranking Marmol and Feliz this high because they’re scared of being the first person to say it. You’d be surprised at how scared they are of their readers. Once all readers think Marmol and Feliz are the best closers in the majors then they will rank them there. Bunch of pigs and I’m the angry bird. 2011 Projections: 5-2/2.75/1.00/90, 40 saves
3. Joakim Soria – I flip-flopped a few times with whether to place Soria or Heath Bell here. Ended up going with Soria because I think Heath Bell just had a career year and he’s going to come back to earth a little bit. And if you’re thinking to yourself, “The Royals and Padres aren’t going to give either of these guys save chances, I’m going with Mariano.” Think about how last year you didn’t want Bell because he was getting traded and Soria because he pitched for the Royals and they combined for 100 saves. 2011 Projections: 2-3/2.50/1.00/75, 40 saves
4. Heath Bell – I sorta just went over Bell in my Soria blurb. Blurb on, playa. 2011 Projections: 3-4/2.90/1.18/85, 40 saves
5. Brian Wilson – One of the few elite closers that really scares me. His K-rate (11.21) last year was so juicy that I can’t drop him any further, but I swear to you every game I watch him close he leaves at least one man on base. I suppose that’s the idea with closers, but he’s putting them on too. 2011 Projections: 3-5/2.80/1.20/85, 40 saves
6. Jonathan Papelbon – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until K-Rod. I call this tier, “There’s some shine off these guys so you might be able to draft them.” Papelbon pitching last year was reminiscent of his dancing. Now he’s got, like, five backup closers and people are scared of him. Whatever, he’s the closer, draft him. 2011 Projections: 5-3/2.75/1.18/75, 38 saves
7. Jonathan Broxton – Wasn’t one of dem super pretty closing years for Broxton in 2010. Okay, but he can strikeout 100 guys in just over 70 IP and he’ll only be 27 years old for the majority of 2011. I’m not worried. 2011 Projections: 6-4/3.00/1.20/95, 36 saves
8. Jose Valverde – He threw a 6.38 ERA in the 2nd half last year. Eh, he also has a career 3.15 ERA and a 10.68 K-rate. You’ll take 70 Ks and 35 saves and like it. 2011 Projections: 5-2/3.00/1.18/70, 35 saves
9. Francisco Rodriguez – To say the shine is off K-Rod is like saying Ronnie from The Jersey Shore is on steroids. Well, no duh. Assuming no opposing team hires K-Rod’s father-in-law to coach first base when Rodriguez takes the mound, he should be fine in 2011. 2011 Projections: 3-5/2.95/1.16/60, 35 saves
10. Mariano Rivera – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Street. I call this tier, “They might end being donkeycorns, but I’m worried.” I don’t know when the bottom is going to fall out with Rivera but I’m sick of predicting it and looking like a flippin’ moron. Actually, what do I care how I look? This year it’s going to fall apart for him. His K-rate last year was 6.75. That’s hideous. Even if he finds ways to save games, he’s not getting Ks with a K-rate that bad. Then throw a very capable set-up man and the end is nigh! If nigh means near. I’m not sure. 2011 Projections: 5-4/3.10/1.00/50, 30 saves
11. Andrew Bailey – Is it me or is this the news once a month for him, “Andrew Bailey has been cleared to start throwing.” Hey, Bailey, throw already! The A’s signed Fuentes and Bailey just had elbow surgery. I’m sure he’ll be fine… Actually, no, I’m not. He should be good for when he’s actually closing, if that helps matters. 2011 Projections: 2-1/2.25/1.05/40, 24 saves
12. Huston Street – Word out of Colorado is Street will be healthy for Spring Training. That’s the good news. The bad news is the Rockies feel the need to say it. 2011 Projections: 3-1/3.35/1.10/50, 28 saves
13. J.J. Putz – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the list. I call this tier, “I want at least three closers. Start drafting!” Wanna know how locked in Putz will be to the closing job in the desert? Look at his set-up men. Belch. 2011 Projections: 2-4/2.70/1.15/60, 30 saves
14. John Axford – I almost put Axford in my top five overall but I would like to see him do it one more year. Correction: I want to see him do it another year on all of my fantasy teams. Go after him aggressively. Could be a huge fantasy year. 2011 Projections: 3-1/3.00/1.22/80, 32 saves
15. Chris Perez – You talking in a baby voice, “Buh-but, Grey, he closes for the Indians.” Me, “Stop talking in a baby voice and draft him.” 2011 Projections: 1-4/3.10/1.16/70, 30 saves
16. Craig Kimbrel – Want a closer that can go from “Who’s Craig Kimbrel?” to “I don’t know who Craig Kimbrel is but I’m glad I drafted him?” Then you’re in luck; Craig Kimbrel is just the guy to do it. 2011 Projections: 3-3/2.95/1.18/80, 30 saves
17. Drew Storen – He’s right there with Kimbrel as a guy that can become “I don’t know who Craig Kimbrel is but I’m glad I drafted him?” Wait, what? No, we know who Storen is and he’s going to be a solid donkeycorn. 2011 Projections: 2-5/3.00/1.25/60, 30 saves
18. Brad Lidge – Just know that after you draft him you should buy a case of Tagamet. 2011 Projections: 1-4/3.25/1.25/65, 32 saves
19. Francisco Cordero – Honestly, I’d draft any of these guys; they’re just closers. Cordero’s as good as any. Sure, if you draft him, you won’t find yourself soiling pictures of Cordero. At least not the good kind of soiling. 2011 Projections: 4-5/3.50/1.35/60, 40 saves
20. Leo Nunez – Yes, Chris Sale and Matt Thornton will be better, probably. Or Matt Capps and Joe Nathan. The problem with those shituations is I don’t know who the closer is. If I’m drafting today, I want the guy with a job and I don’t believe Clay Hensley is going to close games for the Marlins. Though when Spring Training hits, these things will change. 2011 Projections: 4-4/3.40/1.25/65, 30 saves
After the top 20 closers for 2011 fantasy baseball there’s a lot of names, but here’s one that stands out:
Joel Hanrahanananananan – I could’ve put Fernando Rodney, Lyon, Franklin, etc. etc. etc. here. Just grab all the closers you can at the end of your draft. As soon as the season starts, they become gold on the trade market. Much more will be said about this at a later date. 2011 Projections: 2-4/3.95/1.25/80, 30 saves
