Top 100 Hitters: Swing Harder

Welcome back to the Top 100 hitters for the rest of the 2024 fantasy baseball season. I once had a baseball coach who told me you’re talented but you need to change one thing. He simply said I need to swing the bat harder.  The fact that I’m writing rather than playing right now indicates the results may not have been favorable.  However, Baseball Savant recently released their swing speed metrics and have given us a new dimension to evaluate.  Did you know that Giancarlo Stanton swings the bat hard while Arraez barely swings at all?  Of course you did because you’re a savvy fantasy baseball player.  However, did you also know that Jo Adell has been swinging a harder bat than Juan Soto?  Or how about that Mookie Betts and Adley Rutschman sit in the bottom 20% of hard swingers?  While still trying to figure out what this all means, it doesn’t give us more to dig into in this week’s rendition of the Top 100 Hitters for the rest of the 2024 fantasy baseball season.

Rising

• Brent Rooker – There are no questions about Brent Rooker’s power even when playing for the Oakland Athletics. The questions have been about Rooker’s ability to make good contact and hit for a reasonable batting average at the same time.  So far in 2024, we have seen significant improvement with his quality of contact profile.  The xBA of .276 fully supports his current results.  Rooker’s counting stats have even been better than expected playing for Oakland. Sure, there is likely a slight drop-off coming, but the overall profile says that Rooker has made improvements this year and is a fantasy force to be reckoned with.
• Tommy Pham – Do you know the legend of Tommy Pham?  He has been helping fantasy owners for years for free.  While all your other hitters are charging a hefty fee, he has been going about his business delivering 20/20 production for pennies on the dollar.  So far in 2024, Pham picked up right where he left off in 2023 by delivering a pace for 16 homers and 16 steals on a small sample size.  But toss in a respectable average and better than expected counting stats for the White Sox and there is no reason to believe he will not continue delivering value.  He jumps up into our rankings this week and certainly deserves to be there.

Falling

• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Where there is immense potential, there are not always following results.  Ke’Bryan just hit the injured list with back issues but should make it back around the end of the month.  That said, the performance has been sub-par in what should have been a breakout season.  So far, Hayes is sitting on a total of one home run across 34 games.  Maybe the back issue is draining the power or his lack of flyball hitting has finally caught up.  More likely, Hayes took the offseason to go all Cavan Biggio on us by improving his walk rates through not swinging as much.  Unfortunately, he is also not swinging at good pitches to take advantage of his power.  There is an opportunity here if he reverts, but for now, the injury and passive nature drop him down the list.
• Xander Bogaerts – It would be nice if average annual contract value aligned directly with fantasy performance.  However, all too often contracts end up paying for past performance and not the future results. Getting paid roughly $25 million annually, Xander continues to show signs of decline since leaving Boston.  This year, that decline is more pronounced with a declining walk rate and rising strikeout rate.  His exit velocity has dropped three years in a row and his sprint speed is simply league average.  If you are expecting 20/20 results, you are going to be disappointed.  We are looking at slowly declining production and the wheels will fully fall off before that massive contract ends.
• Justin Turner – As much as it pains me to list Justin Turner as a falling asset, it is time.  At 39 years old and declining skills, it is the time to be walking away for fantasy owners. Turner has been a 25 homer bat with a respectful batting average since 2014 however, now in Toronto we are starting to see some concerning signs. First off, this is the fourth straight season where he has seen his exit velocities decline.  While he is actually being much more selective at the plate, the power is just not following.  With the aforementioned release of bat speed, we might know why.  There is only one player in the majors with a lower bat speed than Turner and that is Luis Arraez.  Even though he does swing a slightly heavier bat, that speed plus the surrounding results indicate there is not much left in the tank.

Watching

• Abraham Toro – Abraham Toro has been a nice surprise for the Oakland Athletics this season being able to consistently deliver with the bat and play all over the diamond with the glove.  Primarily playing second base and third base, the journeyman has hit four homers, swiped two bases and combined for 40 runs and RBI.  While not groundbreaking production, that will play as a middle infield or spot start player in the fantasy world.  He lands on the watchlist this week due in part to a hot May hitting .348 and a wRC+ of 164.  Toro won’t be a league winner, but he can certainly hold your team over in a pinch.
• Eddie Rosario – Steady Eddie was at one point a stalwart in fantasy lineups.  However, the last few years have been more glimpses of production instead of sustained results.  This season, he has delivered a .179 average with five homers and six steal for an interesting profile.  He does not belong in the Top 100 Hitters, however, over the last two weeks Rosario has been unstoppable.  Since May 4, nearly all his results have been delivered on the back of a .361/.452/.778 line with five homers plus five steals.  Rosario appears to be on a heater that is unlikely to continue but if you have a hole to fill, pull this trigger while he is hot!