The Way Of Robbie Ray

As the great philosopher EWB once said, “History repeats. Neat. Repeat History. Complete. Skeet skeet.” OK, I can’t tell if that was me or Lil’ John who wrote that. But much like Nirvana came back, I’m here to remind you, again, that Robbie Ray is OK.

Maybe you haven’t been around Razzball as long as I have. That’s OK. There’s a BlueSky Razzball starter pack. TLDR: I like Robbie Ray. Here’s an article about it. And here we are again, the age of 20 and 25 — simultaneously innocent yet seasoned — thinking about what Robbie Ray can do for your 2025 fantasy baseball team.

What Do I Want From My Pitchers?

I’m notoriously low on starting pitchers in fantasy baseball. If I’m in a 12 team best ball, I might not draft my first starter until round 7 or later. If I’m in a 12-team head-to-head, I’m waiting until round 5. Even in a 15-rounder, I’m likely to get my first hurler in round 3, after I’ve collected a couple bats to start the draft. If you’ve never played in a 15-teamer, I suggest trying it out. It’s a great way to get made fun of by a bunch of guys who consider themselves “alpha” while ordering Burger King from DoorDash.

Why do I draft pitchers so late? Is it because I’m just so good at fantasy baseball that Grey once called me “the Alfred Hitchcock of the draft room”? No, it’s not because of my uncanny timing. It’s because I know there are a ton of late round pitchers who drafters are simply bored of. While everybody is dreaming of Roki Sasaki in round 5, I’m looking for upside in Innings Pitched and Strikeouts later in the draft.

“But why does Innings Pitched matter?”, you say, your mouth full of gummy worms and Cheetos.

Simple math, my friend. Refer to the table below, where I compare Robbie Ray’s last healthy year to Roki Sasaki’s “best” year. This isn’t to compare players, per se, but to show the impact of IP on overall strikeouts.

The thing about IP volume, is that it takes “pretty good” K/9 rates and makes them unbeatable for the glass cannons. This is why the guys like Tyler Glasnow are just not as great as fantasy starters as the masses make you believe. [Dodges glasses hurled from the audience]

Robbie Ray Historical Fantasy Production

Have you ever run a marathon before? No? Same here! Great, I finally found a buddy to sit on the couch and watch Terrace House with. But what if we wanted to get up and run a marathon — do you think we could do it right off the bat? Probably not. Mostly because I can barely get out of bed in the morning, and I assume that you probably couldn’t carry me 26 miles.

The thing about starting pitchers and predictable outcomes is that an enormous factor to increasing one’s certainty of their performance is whether they’ve done well before. Sure, this sounds like your resume writing workshop — list your achievements, and then list your skills, and eventually you’ll have the honor to get fired by an AI agent named “Aidea Aimy.” Pitchers who have “done the work before” are more likely to do it again. In the industry, we call this the Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander effect. No, actually we call this “Forgot About Dre” because guys like Robbie Ray tend to fall off the radar. Told ya — it’s all about timing the draft.

Let’s be honest — Robbie Ray has done the thing before. Here’s where he’s finished in the Starting Pitching Rankings historically:

Robbie Ray 2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Over the past month at the National Fantasy Baseball Championships, Robbie Ray’s stock has fallen a bit, and he’s now going 159th overall, or roughly SP50 overall. In a 12-teamer, that’s nearly your last SP, or on a 15-teamer, your fourth starter. He’s fallen after guys like Jared Jones and Bryan Woo.

Now I’m not telling you not to draft Jared Jones, but I am telling you that a Pirates pitcher is not where you want to be building your rotation.

Of course, there’s a rather large camel in the room (y’all thought I was gonna say elephant, right? Camels are much easier to fit into rooms. enywhey): Ray is on a “new” team and pitching his first full year after elbow surgery. Sure, there’s risk to picking up R^2 as the savior of your pitching staff. We’re not talking about the second coming of Greg Maddux.

But we are talking about a guy who has topped 160+ Innings five times in his career, and in eligible seasons, has never dipped a K/9 below 10. Yes, even in that season where he got the yips, he combined his nearly 8 BB/9 with a sweet 11.8 K/9.

In his brief return in 2024, his numbers were pretty much “the usual,” with a 12.6 K/9 paired with a 4.4 BB/9 over 30 IP. Walks aren’t as much of a fantasy value killer as we tend to think. That 1.76 HR/9 rate is, well, a killer. That sucks. But it’s not the worst we’ve seen out of upside guys. Reports are filtering in that Ray is more or less healthy and lined up to churn out a typical season on a fairly good team in a pitcher friendly park. What’s not to like?

Part of Ray’s recreation after his bout of the yips was that he simplified his arsenal towards a fastball and slider combo, with his curveball coming back for short bursts in 2024. You know who else succeeded with this combo? Practically every reliever, and some guy named Spencer Strider. Also, how is Spencer Strider on track to pitch in the beginning of the season and he’s getting drafted just before Robbie Ray? Are y’all trying to let me win your league by taking 10 batters first and then leaving the draft with Spencer Strider, Robbie Ray, and Sandy Alcantara? ENYWHEY. It’s not like Ray has to re-create 6 pitches to be successful.

For you ESPN home league fantasy baseballers out there, we’re talking about your last round draft pick being Robbie Ray, and then you laughing the rest of the season while he does his thing. For you competitive baseball players who play for pictures of apes and Doge coins, Robbie Ray is going to be your backup when you see the run of starters going in the sixth and seventh rounds — you’re not going to panic because you know there’s a guy with SP2-3 upside waiting for you at pick 150.

What’s your take on our favorite guy to see on the mound? Drop your comments below and let me know what you think!