There are always the telltale signs of spring here in the Bold North: it becomes warm enough to actually snow instead of just being a planet of ice, the War on Christmas ends as my local coffee shop switches from “Sleigh All Day” cup sleeves to “Hoppin’ Along!” cup sleeves, and Grey publishes an absolute gaggle of fantasy baseball articles. You may ask, “How does Grey have the time to write all those blurbs while also being a top tier baker and so fantastically good looking?” Well, I’m glad you asked! Now, go ask him in the comments of his articles, and then come tell me his answer. That’s the secret to quality organic engagement!
So imagine me, sitting in the jacuzzi with a mug of wine and a grab bag of Flamin’ Hot Doritos, catching up on Grey’s “Top 97 Middle Infielders” lists. I’ve got swing band music on in the background, Severance on the jacuzzi TV, and the Lakers game on the other jacuzzi TV. Why do one thing when you can do seventeen things at once? That’s what my grandpa’s undiagnosed ADHD taught me. ENYWHEY.
I got to Razzball’s Top 20 Starters for 2025 Fantasy Baseball. And who was the top pitcher for the year? Some tightbody named Paul Skenes. HAHA! I nearly spilled my wine into the jacuzzi bubbles, which is probably how champagne got invented. Then I was like, “Who’s the Top SP by ADP?” So I went and read my old article, which is now Marmos’ usual article, the Top 100 Starting Pitchers for 2025 Fantasy Baseball. And who was the top starting pitcher by ADP there? Some guy with a mustache not named Grey, but Paul Skenes.
So I figure I better prep for my industry drafts because you know what? Our buddy Paul has snuck into the first round of 12-team drafts over at the National Fantasy Baseball Championships. He’s ahead of Tarik Skubal, Julio Rodriguez, and Yordan Alvarez. Skenes has a higher top pick than Mookie Betts and Juan Soto. There must be something to this guy, right?
I’m not here to bury Skenes. No, that’s not how these things work. But I am here to do a little questioning about what makes a top starting pitcher, and maybe help you decide who to pick in the first round of your 2025 fantasy baseball draft.
The Makings of a Top Fantasy Starting Pitcher
Because this is Razzball and we have a Player Rater, let’s look at the important stats for top starters over the past few years. Let’s keep this post-sticky stuff ban and post-Covid so we don’t have to deal with outliers from before 2020. ADP is overall draft position from NFC’s historical ADP, which samples nearly 1600 of their drafts per year.
| Player | SP1 Year | ADP | Wins | Innings Pitched | Strikeouts | K/9 | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | 2024 | 54 | 18 | 192 | 228 | 10.7 | 2.39 | 0.92 |
| Spencer Strider | 2023 | 32 | 20 | 186 | 281 | 13.55 | 3.86 | 1.09 |
| Justin Verlander | 2022 | 92 | 18 | 175 | 185 | 9.5 | 1.75 | 0.83 |
| Max Scherzer | 2021 | 27 | 15 | 179 | 236 | 11.8 | 2.46 | 0.86 |
Looks pretty good, eh? So, what are some things we see?
- Innings Pitched are greater than 175. This is all pretty sensible: a pitcher who pitches more will get more strikeouts, and a higher chance at Wins. Those with good ERAs and WHIPs can also provide impact by Innings volume.
- Wins are pretty high — greater than 15, with most of these guys getting into the “Are they pitching in the 1990s?” range. Wins have become so spread around the league now due to the advent of spot-starters, bullpen games, and Roleless Robs that a pitcher who claims their own Wins will have a greater impact than those who start the game and hand it off to the bullpen.
- K/9 range should be around 10, but can be mitigated by great ERA and WHIP.
- They weren’t the top pitcher by ADP. You may say, “But look at Scherzer with the 27 ADP!” And I’ll respond, “He was SP9 that year. Behind Lucas Giolito. Remember him?” No, no you don’t remember him. You have traumatic amnesia of that year you spent $1700 to draft Trevor Story / Lucas Giolito / Adalberto Mondesi.
So, does Paul Skenes have what it takes to be a top pitcher?
Paul Skenes 2025 Fantasy Outlook
Paul Skenes is a good pitcher. He has excellent skills that top the charts blah blah blah. Pedigree. Lunch pail (Grogu Star Wars themed). Girlfriend. Salt of the earth. He’ll be a fantasy star (no not the video game, that’s Phantasy Star) for years to come.
But the truth is, he hasn’t topped 150 innings in a season yet. But neither did Spencer Strider or Tarik Skubal you shout from your seat next to Bronny James Jr. I’ll admit that. And Spencer Strider went on to Tommy John surgery the year after his SP1 performance. As for Skubal, after mustering 32 IP in 2020 and jumping to nearly 150 IP in 2021, he managed 117 innings of pretty good ball in 2022 before getting shut down for flexor tendon surgery that kept him out of ball until 2023. He then jumped from 80 to 192 IP, which is probably saying something worrisome about everybody’s consensus #2 starter. But this isn’t an article about Skubal; we’re on the Skenes schooner here.
Skenes has gone from 130 minor league innings in 2023 to a combined 150 innings in 2024 and sets off to be a high-risk / high reward type for 2025. His 11+ K/9 is propelled by a killer sinker that he should probably throw more (<- things I say while wondering if I brushed my teeth this morning). But, it’s worth noting that even after a stellar 2024, Skenes was still outside the top 10% of CSW%, with his 29.4% registering right next to noted flamethrower Brandon Pfaadt. Skenes has shown a better edge in getting batters to go the distance for the K, of course. But when we’re talking sheer numbers of strikes, it’s absolutely worth noting that Pfaadt ended the 2024 season with more strikeouts than Skenes.
Sure, efficiency is king. You’re talking to the guy that invented the moniker “Roleless Rob.” I would love to see Skenes be SP1 on the year. But what I want and what is likely to happen are different things.
The Pirates aren’t a great team. Fangraphs has them projected for a sub-.500 year. If Skenes reached 15 Wins — the Scherzer threshold from 2021 — he would claim nearly 20% of the Pirates projected Wins. Of course, to get a Win, the pitcher’s team must, well, win. With the Pirates projected to be in the bottom five teams in Runs Scored per Game according to Fangraphs, we’re talking yet another factor in challenging Skenes to be SP1 in 2025 — they simply can’t score enough runs, or score them while Skenes is pitching.
And the key here is, of course, 2025. Hell of a year, right? But Skenes will turn 23 around Memorial Day, and the Pirates control his contract for a long time. He doesn’t have to be great in 2025 because the Pirates don’t have to be great. Most starters don’t start seeing significant big league action until they’re much older, and Skenes doesn’t hit arbitration until 2027. With the Pirates seeming like they’re already out of contention and still being mindful about collecting talent for the future, there’s no reason for them to push Skenes into the volume of innings that most top fantasy starters collect. When we’re talking about guys like Spencer Strider and Tarik Skubal making big innings jumps, we need to remember that both of their teams were in playoff pushes — the 2023 Braves made it to the Division Series, and the 2024 Tigers made a surprise push for the playoffs where they won the Wild Card before taking the Division Series to 5 games.
So yeah, we can be fans of Skenes skillset. But the question is whether he’ll use it enough to be more valuable to your team than other starters — and those starters you can get much later in the draft. Do you see the Pirates making a playoff push this year? If so, there’s your answer to whether Skenes can be SP1. If not, then I let somebody else draft Skenes in the first round while you’re collecting bats and thinking about an innings maven later in the draft.
What do you see happening for Paul Skenes in 2025? Let me know down in the comments!
