The reflexive of what I have been covering in the last few posts has been looking at trends with pitchers and the stealers themselves. In a steal equation, the catcher plays a part in this. If he wasn’t involved, it would look like the scene from Naked Gun where Leslie Nielson is throwing the balls back. We wouldn’t like that from a whole Enrico Pollazo type way, not one bit. So for now, let’s stop googling that video and focus on the backstops, the teams running most against and their success (or lack there of). Yes, there are other factors into being caught stealing, a bad jump, shoes being untied, or maybe even a cramp. So before all the stat gurus get all huffy and puffy and get their mom’s basements in a tizzy, let’s just say that catchers and their caught stealing prowess are on the even keel that they are what their numbers say they are. As I discussed last week, stolen bases are down across the board this year and a downward trend has been materializing for years… this has direct affect on the numbers for caught stealing, and attempts. Without one you can’t have the other. So here is some interesting stat dirt that I have dug up with teams to run against and the possible streaming value added by playing guys against those teams.
This first chart shows the worst teams at throwing out teams by least caught stealing rates first. This list shows from a standpoint of who has the weaker of defensive catchers affluence on the running game.
| Team | SB Against | Caught Stealing | SB % |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 28 | 5 | 15% |
| CHW | 28 | 6 | 18% |
| Min | 21 | 5 | 19% |
| CHC | 36 | 9 | 20% |
| Atl | 34 | 9 | 21% |
| LAD | 21 | 6 | 22% |
| Hou | 24 | 7 | 23% |
| Tor | 28 | 9 | 24% |
| NYM | 37 | 15 | 29% |
This is the quantity chart. shows who runs more and the teams success at them throwing them out.
| Team | SB Against | Caught Stealing | SB % |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 37 | 15 | 29% |
| CHC | 36 | 9 | 20% |
| Atl | 34 | 9 | 21% |
| Cin | 34 | 18 | 35% |
| Mil | 31 | 26 | 46% |
| SD | 30 | 13 | 30% |
| Sea | 30 | 13 | 30% |
| Det | 30 | 16 | 35% |
| NYY | 28 | 5 | 15% |
So from the data on both the percentage of caught stealing side, and the volume frequency at which they are stolen on, the Yankees and the Cubs seem to be prime candidates to target on weekly basis. Though I would advise streaming against pitchers who limit OBP to below league-averages, but that’s just me.
Jose Ramirez – He’s basically getting playing time at four positions, as he is turning into the new Ben Zobrist. Has started games in LF, SS, 2B, 3B and RF this year. Versatility and a propensity to play solid defense keep you in the line-up on most days. Add in the fact that he has sneaky speed, is hitting over.360, getting on-base at 47% of the time, and slugging over 700 over the past week. Games with Texas and KC on the upcoming make him an interesting MI eligible guy.
Matt Duffy – This guy to me is the best pure example of how SF plays the game. He is a scrapper, who if he is healthy, is unequivocally in the line-up everyday. He hasn’t shown much power this year yet, but has 7 steals on the year (2 in last week of games) and is getting on-base at a .400 clip over the last 10 games.
Whit Merrifield – Has crept up the KC batting order and yesterday batted in the two-slot. Has second base to himself, or so it seems recently. Minor league steal numbers are that of an above average speed guy with 15-20 potential. If he hits high enough in the order I think that is a coup for a guy that is basically unowned by anyone not related to him.
