SAGNOF: Can Ji-Hwan Be Your Steals Bae?

Happy Wednesday, Razzball gang! Baseball is officially BACK! I know we’re less than a week into the 2023 season, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t look at some super early small sample data to get our stolen base engines going. 

With the implementation of the pitch clock, and the push for the game to pick up speed in general, it’s no surprise that we had more total stolen bases on opening day than we’ve had in more than a century. 

Last Thursday marked the first time since 1907 that teams not only attempted more than 20 steals on opening day, but that the success rate was up as well. Runners stole 21 out of a total 23 bags successfully (91.3%), a far cry from the 5/9 (55.6%) success rate for the collective Game 1s in 2022.

Yes, the sample size is small. In some cases, the numbers we’re working with are from teams that have played as few as 4 games. But there is already some data that we can use to gather some information.

Small sample size for the win!!! I punched up this little beauty on Sunday, and updated it Tuesday morning. No team having played more than 5 games on the year makes it tough to lay out definitive prognostications for the rest of the year…but, I think we can all agree that there’s one number that stands out like Randy Johnson at a photography convention…

Baltimore is gonna run.

21 stolen bases on #OpeningDay! We love to see it ? pic.twitter.com/PBgkIjndyK

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) April 1, 2023

That clip from Harold Reynolds pretty much says it all. If a pitcher uses up his two ‘disengagements’ for the current batter, that teammate on first base, (with any speed at all), should be looking to go. Ronald Acuna knows it, the first base coach knows it, and the Nationals’ first baseman certainly knows it, too. We should see scenarios like this all over the league for the next few weeks as the new rules keep affecting the 2023 running game.

The Orioles stole 5 of their total 11 bases in the opening day game against the Red Sox, with Jorge Mateo and Cedric Mullins nabbing a pair each (more on those guys later). 

Leaning on just a handful of games is, admittedly, not a good way to proclaim that these patterns are concrete. But of our top 10 SB teams in 2022, we’ve still got Cleveland, Arizona, and the New York Yankees on the leaderboard for 2023, so that could mean more success from the teams that have given the green light more often in the past.

You know that stolen base numbers are going to continue to increase when things like this are happening…

https://t.co/iVMecRxo58 pic.twitter.com/0766VCxj4Y

— MarmosDad (Matt) (@marmosdad) April 4, 2023

Ty France stole a base on Monday night. Repeat. Ty France stole a base on Monday night.

This, in itself, should be enough to make people question what is happening across the MLB steals landscape in 2023. Ty France? The guy that has not attempted a steal since his 2019 rookie season? The guy that had not successfully stolen a base in 1638 plate appearances? That same guy who announced in spring training that he would reach that previously unattainable promised land this season? 

Yep. And on Monday night he did just that. And in even more surprising fashion, he stole third base! Insert blinking guy gif.

All jokes aside, (never the case here), we can ask ourselves…Are there other names that we can look at for steals in early April? Is there anyone that will look to take advantage of these new pitch clock and disengagement rules? Well, your guy MarmosDad has a few players below that range from trade targets, to deep league pickups, to guys you can look at as waiver wire adds if you have injuries or need a boost in the SB category.

(Brandon Marsh on his way across the Roberto Clemente bridge for a series at PNC Park this summer)

Ji-Hwan Bae (PIT – 2B/OF) First and foremost, depending on your format, this Bae might be even more attractive with the multi-position eligibility. He played four games at 2B last season, and five in the OF. This year, Pittsburgh has already started him at 2B and shifted him to CF in-game.

The 23 year old has 60-grade speed, and managed to swipe two bags in his second game of the season on Saturday. Pittsburgh isn’t afraid to trot out relatively unknown names, (Bligh Madris, anyone?), and having infield/outfield skills can only increase his chances of staying in the lineup. This is a guy that you might want to take a closer look at, especially if you’re looking for a Luis Urias replacement.

Jorge Mateo (BAL – SS)  I felt obligated to write up Mateo here, with an honorable mention to his teammate Cedric Mullins. These two birds have been in full flight in the Orioles’ opening games, and are perched atop the SB leaderboard (with Myles Straw) at 4 SB apiece.

There was talk that Mateo’s grip on the SS job might not be as tight as some had hoped. Some speculated that Gunnar Henderson or Ramon Urias could even push Mateo to the bench for a few games here or there. The good news for Mateo owners is that as long as he is getting on base and running, I can’t see any of the Orioles’ currently rostered infielders stealing his playing time, (I’ll be here all week). With his 80-grade speed, if Mateo can keep his OBP up, he could legitimately burn right past last season’s final SB total of 35…maybe even before the MLB all-star game.

Joey Wiemer  (MLW – OF)

Joey Wiemer throws out noted speedster Daniel Vogelbach! pic.twitter.com/VZ7bSGgSZQ

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 3, 2023

Writing up two of these guys right after The Itch’s Sunday article definitely feels like I’m sitting beside him in class and peeking at his paper during a big test, (and if that was the case, I’d have picked a pretty good one to sit beside!). I had Wiemer on this week’s radar as soon as word came out that the Brewers were recalling him on Saturday. The Luis Urias hamstring injury carries a 6-8 week recovery time. That might not mean much as far as a straight replacement goes, (more on that below), as Wiemer is OF-only eligible. One thing is certain, though. Despite the Sal Frelick fans being a bit sour about this news, the Brewers aren’t calling this kid up to sit on the bench. 

Ranked as the 90th player on the 2023 MLB Pipeline list, Wiemer had 30 SB in 2021 (A/A+), then followed that up with a 31 SB season in 2022 (AA/AAA). The wheels are 70-grade, but his power scores were just as impressive. The game power/raw power grades sit at a 60/70, and Wiemer’s MiLB home run totals were 27 and 21 over the last two years. It looks like Milwaukee is ready to run both Garrett Mitchell and Joey Wiemer out, too, as the pair started the last two games in CF and RF, respectively.

Wiemer is worth a look, especially if you want to replace that dart throw OF at post 350 ADP with a guy that is getting playing time and has the potential to provide even more bang for your FAAB buck.

Brice Turang (MLW – SS…soon to be 2B) – I nearly went with Anthony Volpe here, who is definitely a speed guy that you can check in on. However, after making the opening day roster, Volpe’s helium has never been higher. 

With Brice Turang, this is more of a ‘check your waiver wire to see if he’s still there’ kind of add. Someone dropped Turang in our TGFBI league last week, and I assume they’re kicking themselves now. This is just as connected to the Luis Urias injury as is Wiemer’s call-up above, but Turang should be the one that benefits most directly from the absence of his 25 year old middle infield teammate. Like Wiemer, Turang comes with a strong prospect pedigree and not a lot of the corresponding hype. Grey outlined it in a tweet on Monday – “Brice Turang was one of those guys who had an early ADP that never made any sense, but simply bc he (was) being drafted around 400 overall, no one really questioned it and continued to draft him about 200 picks too late.”

I landed Turang in Razzslam with my 37th round pick. Needless to say, things are looking good so far in that league.

Before we leave, just another quick chart of the stolen base leaders through our final edit (Tuesday morning). If the early overall numbers are any indication, there is one obvious thing for us fantasy fans to look forward to – a huge increase in stolen bases by the end of 2023. 

Next week, I’ll make sure to give you a bit more of a specific run down of which catchers (or teams) had a tough time throwing out runners in 2022 and how you can plan your SAGNOF a bit more specifically based on those matchups in your head to head leagues. Let’s not forget, too, that you can sort through all of the SB$ every week with Rudy’s tools subscription and the Hittertron for daily or weekly matchups.

Until then, if you have any ideas of players that you want a deeper look at, drop them in the comments. If you have any questions about steals or some of the guys here, feel free to put them below. And you can always catch me @MarmosDad on Twitter. Good luck with your SAGNOF plays this week!