Evan Longoria is a rare case. In a world of free agency and trades, Longoria has stayed with the Tampa Bay Rays for nine seasons, ever since he was drafted third overall in the 2006 draft. That’s some serious commitment. If I wanted to talk about a lack of commitment, I’d make a low-brow reference to Tony Parker and Eva Longoria. Heyo!
A three time all-star, Longoria used to be one of the first third baseman drafted. However, people tend to gravitate towards youth, sometimes valuing youth over established production. Longoria can still provide some very solid production, and at a discount with his current ADP.
The example I’ll provide is a comparison between Longoria and a fellow third baseman, Kyle Seager. Seager is a great hitter for the Mariners, and is being drafted highly. I’ll show that Longoria should provide similar stats to Seager, at a discounted ADP. I’ll be examining the last four years of production for both players, which are strikingly similar…
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Average Stats – Past Four Years
| Player | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 161 | 687 | 28 | 82 | 88 | 2 | 0.266 |
| Kyle Seager | 160 | 678 | 26 | 81 | 85 | 6 | 0.289 |
Neither player has played less than 158 games in the last four seasons, so durability isn’t a concern of mine. We can see that they have remarkably similar production over the past four years. The only noticeable difference is their average. Otherwise, in the other four categories, they can provide the same level of value.
Average Advanced Stats – Past Four Years
| Player | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | OBP | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 7.98% | 20.8% | 0.198 | 0.301 | 0.327 | 0.338 | 117 |
| Kyle Seager | 8.98% | 16.48% | 0.190 | 0.290 | 0.340 | 0.345 | 123 |
Analysis Format: Sabermetric Stat (League Average)
BB% – Walk Percentage (8.20%)
K%- Strikeout Percentage (21.1%):
Seager has the advantage in the walk percentage, beating the 2016 average by a few percentage points. While Longoria was slightly below the 8.20% mark, what concerns me is his declining walk rate over the past four years: 10.1%, 8.1%, 7.6%, 6.1%. He doesn’t lack plate discipline, so I expect his BB% to normalize towards his lifetime average of 9.6%. Longoria had the higher strikeout rate, but still bested the league average. Seager is a far more patient hitter, which makes sense given his higher walk rate and higher OBP.
ISO – Isolated Power (.162): Both players have the ability to hit, and hit hard. Their ISO is far above the league average. Interestingly, they both have above average HARD% quality of contact as well. The league average for HARD% contact equals 31.4% in 2016. Longoria had hit 34.7% for 2016, while Seager hit 33.5%. Both players should hit for home runs, which will help to contribute across the Runs/HR/RBI categories. Seager’s HR totals have been increasing over each of the past five years, but Longoria has some variability. Longoria hasn’t ever hit less than 20 HR in a full season, and had hit 36 HR last year. While he’s not the uprising talent of Seager, Longoria provides a safe floor.
BABIP – Batting Average on Balls in Play (.300)
OBP – On Base Percentage (.322)
wOBA – Weighted On Base Average (.318): Both players were right around the league average for BABIP and OBP, which makes sense given that their BB% and K% are close to the league averages. When not swinging for the fences, they have the ability to generate contact and still get on base. For wOBA, both players were able to beat the league average. What’s interesting is that Longoria’s wOBA is not far behind Seager’s wOBA, despite having the much lower average. Longoria hit 41 doubles/4 triples in 2016, compared to Seager’s 36 doubles/3 triples. Longoria’s average has been rising over the past three years, so his four-year 0.266 average might actually regress more towards his lifetime average of 0.271.
wRC+ – Weighted Runs Created Plus (97): wRC+ is a great metric for measuring the two players, as they both play the same position. They both have above average measures for wRC+, exceeding the league average of 97. The variance likely comes from the offenses they play for. Seager has the advantage due to playing in Seattle, as they generated 768 runs in 2016, good for 6th overall in the league. The Rays, in comparison, generated 672 runs, which places them at 24th. The Rays have some optimism heading into 2017, but make no mistake, Seattle has the much better offense between the two players. That being said, Longoria should still be able to produce stats in Tampa, as he always has.
Average Draft Position: There are currently four players who are eligible for 3B ranked in the top ten overall hitters (Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson). Given that the 3B is so top heavy, fantasy players will be looking to likely wait a bit to fill out 3B if they miss out on the Big 4. Longoria currently has an overall ECR ranking of 83, and is the 11th ranked third baseman. Seager has an overall ECR ranking of 51, and is the 6th ranked third baseman. In pure redraft leagues, Longoria seems like a bit of a bargain at this point. Rather than filling 3B with Seager in the fourth or fifth rounds, I suggest waiting a bit and scooping up Longoria. Longoria should be able to return decent value at 3B, and allow you to fill other positions in the middle rounds.
You can follow Andrew on Twitter, @TFA_Andrew, if you like hearing about sports, fantasies, and fantasy sports.
