The excitement is in the air, as a week of spring games are in the books and we are that much closer to baseball that counts. This week, it’s time for another check-in on some players that may not be anywhere close to pinging the regular fantasy radar, but may warrant a mention for those of us who will soon be scraping the bottom of the deep-league barrel with draft season in full swing. In some cases, a player’s “rise in value” is simply his presence and participation in spring games or even just workouts — either proving some degree of health or in other cases, simply reminding us of his existence. Let’s take a look at a handful of players whose fantasy stock may have risen a smidge of late, and we’ll keep things deep in terms of NFBC ADP (going from the highest to the lowest), with players who are outside the top 450 overall. (Since ADP gets so wonky the deeper you get, I’ll be noting in parenthesis after the player’s name their current ADP, followed both the earliest/latest they’ve been drafted in NFBC leagues this season. As you’ll see, there’s some rather extreme variance!)
Pavin Smith (ADP #462; 204/577)/Randal Grichuk (ADP #668; 386/737). Only in the deepest leagues does hearing about a platoon situation often make both players draftable, rather than un-draftable, since we at least know the team is envisioning playing time for them. Smith is being given every chance to take over the strong side of said platoon, at DH for the Diamondbacks, and if he can run with the opportunity, he could be a deep league value at his current price point. (Maybe the guy that took him at #204 in an NFBC league knows something we don’t? Or maybe Pavin Smith’s mom plays fantasy baseball?) As for Grichuk, he’s looking like a classic end-of-your-roster-but-better-than-nothing guy in the deepest leagues.
Michael Massey (ADP #465; 253/522). Most figured Massey would be the playing time victim when the Royals signed Jonathan India, but it’s starting to look like that may not necessarily be the case. Massey has been both playing and hitting well since spring training started, and both he and India have been getting reps in the outfield. For now, it’s looking like there may be plenty of at bats for both of them one way or another. While Massey doesn’t have much to offer in the way of upside (and he doesn’t run at all, really), he may be able to deliver more deep league counting stats than we might have anticipated.
Mike Tauchman (ADP #587; 315/747). Even as a firm believer in finding fantasy value on bad real-life teams, I have to admit that I’ve found it extremely difficult to roster any members of the Chicago White Sox this year. I have, however, grabbed Tauchman late in a 50-round draft or two, and there could be legit reason to consider him in deeper leagues that use OBP, which is one thing he’s always been good at. Assuming he’ll actually be their de-facto lead-off man, he might even find a way to score a useful number of runs to boot.
Mickey Moniak (ADP #683; 379/733). Moniak won his arbitration case vs. the Angels over the winter, which I guess caught my eye even though it doesn’t have anything to do with his actual on-field performance. Or does it?… is there any way a chip on his shoulder combined with a boost of confidence after his victory will propel him to better times on the field? Maybe not, but even as a back up outfielder it feels like Moniak will get his chances in the lineup, whether it’s due to injury or poor performance by others. I’m not exactly optimistic, but he’s still only 26, so if we squint hard enough maybe there’s still the tiniest glimmer of post-hype prospect hope here.
DJ LeMahieu (ADP #669; 367/748). Somehow as we turn the calendar page to March, it’s looking like LeMahieu could be in line for a semi-decent amount of playing time at third base, among other positions. He was useless in even the deepest leagues last year, but is there a chance that A) he’s going into the season healthy (he says he is, for what it’s worth, though hasn’t gotten into any games yet as the Yankees try to “limit his workload”) and B) he’s moderately productive this year? Well, there’s always a chance, I guess.
German Marquez (ADP #724; 330/750). Marquez only made one appearance last year in his attempt to come back after Tommy John surgery, and it did not go well. In addition to pitching poorly, he got shut back down with a stress reaction in his elbow, presumably never to be heard from again. Well, he was heard from again, as he’s already pitched a couple scoreless innings this spring and is supposedly hitting mid to high 90’s on the radar gun. I’m not exactly going to be going out of my way to save a spot for him on my rosters, but it’s possible he ends up with some positive value this year, perhaps as a streamer if nothing else.
Matt Mervis (ADP #728; 390/747). Speaking of remembering players exist, how long has it been since we thought about this guy? For me, it’s clearly been a while, because I’m honestly not sure I could have told you last week that he is now on the Marlins. The Marlins have a lot of playing time available, and while there are a lot of bodies fighting for that playing time, I’m getting the feeling that Mervis is going to get as good a shot as anyone to finally establish himself as a (finally healthy?) MLB-caliber player. He’s already hit a spring homer (while DHing, for whatever that’s worth). I’m starting to wonder if I’ll regret not taking him late in a couple of my deep draft and hold leagues, given the low risk to potential reward ratio, since somewhat ironically the lowest-ranked player on this list probably has the most upside.
Feel free to shoot me a comment or question — deep league or otherwise — in the comments, and Happy Drafting to all!
