Oh, we’re only doing sexy fantasy baseball sleepers this year, I see. Who’s next Elly De La Cruz? Do you have an Oneil Cruz sleeper in the hopper? Do you have non-sexy Cruzes ready to go? Demand answers from me! Wait, I am me. AHHHHH!!! When did that happen? So, yes — or YAAAAAAS if George Santos is reading — Riley Greene is likely a sexy sleeper, but so what? We’ll get you some boring eh-eff sleepers soon, don’t worry! They can’t all be platoon outfielders for the Pirates! Instead, they’re corner outfielders for the Tigers. Not since Ron LeFlore has my excitement level been this high for a Tigers’ outfielder. Omar Moreno couldn’t hold a candle to Ron LeFlore! Okay, now I’m just playing Immaculate Grid. If there could be one common denominator between my Josh Naylor sleeper and the Riley Greene sleeper, besides — [breathes heavy, presses chest against glass, yells, “Billy!”] — is they both had injury-laden years they were coming off. Well, first a guy is coming off, then he’s getting off, then he’s going off, if alphabetical order means anything. (I’m told it doesn’t, but, honestly, I’m still thinking back on some of those Ron LeFlore years — one year he went 12 HRs, 68 SBs, .297! Another year of 97 steals! We might need more players doing coke. One more thing because I was looking at LeFlore’s years and this is hilarious, he had 97 steals and 21 doubles. We need more guys like this, who just stop at first hoping to steal two bags. If you’re wondering Esteury Ruiz stole 67 bags, but had 24 doubles. Way too many! Okay, this side note is now longer than the actual post.) So, what can we expect from Riley Greene for 2024 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! I began to roll out my 2024 fantasy baseball rankings on the Patreon yesterday. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, the Riley Greene sleeper:
Guys who I find myself liking more and more this offseason (so far at least) are players who can hit for a high average. Riley Greene had a 27.4% strikeout rate, which doesn’t scream great average. He did have a .287 expected batting average, and, yes, I don’t trust xBA because it is not a good stat. I won’t go into all the nuts and bolts of it again, except to say they don’t mark all home runs as 1.000 xBA. Think about that. It’s just logically flawed. I remember seeing an xBA on a home run at .040. So, yeah, it’s dumb, but Riley Greene’s high xBA with a not-super-low K% stands out because it shows us how good his contact is. His Line Drive Rate was 26.3%, that would’ve been fourth in the league, behind Arraez, Freeman and Bichette. Line Drives Rates are deceiving. They’re not everything. Sure as heckfire, they are a good place to start. Ain’t like we’re looking for infield pops.
His Hard Contact was 39.1%. That would’ve been 25th in the league tied with Kyle Schwarber. Tsket a basket, Schwarber’s K-rate and line drive rate don’t have him in the same basket. Riley Greene’s strikeouts, line drives and Hard Contact kinda make him One of One. It’s Riley Greene by himself on an island to himself talking to a face-drawn-on volleyball. He is his own person, but most like him: Adolis Garcia. Okay, I’m listening. Garcia’s line drives are lower, but there wasn’t an exact match. Another couple of guys similar to Riley Greene were Gunnar Henderson and Josh Jung. It is bizarre to find such incredibly good contact and those strikeouts. Bryce Harper does it, but without the Ks. Harper used to strikeout more, and Riley Greene was always considered a high contact guy, so, yes, I’m talking crazy, but we could see a huge step forward from Riley Greene. We could see Riley Greene to the top 25 overall next year type of move.
At 22 years of age last year, Riley Greene hit .288 with 11 homers and 7 SBs in only 378 ABs. He has 30/20/.280 potential. Sure, he needs a step forward, and the Tigers won’t give him a ton of runs and RBIs and he might be an injury risk — Freakin’ obviously! — But the pedigree is there. He might be more sex appeal than reality, and I wouldn’t pair him with a lot of other upside bats, but, if you have room for one guy who can go to the moon, then go with Greene and leave others with envy. (Wow, dropping a pun at the end of a post. That’s some trapeze, high-level shizz.) For 2024 fantasy, I’ll give Riley Greene projections of 84/21/61/.274/12 in 533 ABs with a chance for much more.
