My Maserati does 195,
I lost my license, now I don’t drive.
I’m listening to Joe Walsh’s Life’s Been Good, as I write this, and it feels appropriate because fantasy baseball sleepers should have an aura of getting something over on someone else. Just a nice upbeat rock vibe. Rock, for those born in the 2000s, was a style of music that no longer exists. With that, welcome to the 2024 fantasy baseball sleepers. Rock, the music, when it existed, was famous for breaking the rules. Well, that clumsy metaphor ended already — Catch up, Heinz! — so it’s time to go over some fantasy baseball sleeper ground rules. The best ground rule is the one that bounces into the bleachers for a stand-up double. The 2nd best ground rule is the one that says you can’t question my fantasy baseball sleepers. I kid, kinda. You can question them if you want, but please keep in mind the caveat: There’s many different types of sleepers. One kind of sleeper is the guy who is drafted in the last round of a 30-team league. Another type of sleeper is the guy who is drafted around pick 85 overall, because he can return value that is better than pick 85. So, is Josh Naylor going to be drafted around pick 7,000 out of 7,0001? No, guys and five ladies. He’s not that type of sleeper. He’s the type who will be drafted around the top 100 and will return more value. The “more value than his draft spot” is really all sleepers are. So, please, don’t say Josh Naylor is not a sleeper. If he’s not a sleeper, then draft him in the 1st round. So, what can we expect from Josh Naylor for 2024 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! I’m going to begin rolling out my 2024 fantasy baseball rankings on the Patreon starting today. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, the Josh Naylor sleeper:
Okay, one caveat I will give you about Josh Naylor. He is a no-brainer sleeper. Coming out of the gate with sleepers, and they’re not supposed to blow your brain clear out of your head and have you going, “Whoa, where’s my brain? Any ideas?” Two years ago, Naylor went 20/6/.256 in 122 games, then last year he went 17/10/.308 in 121 games. Lowercase yay, next year he’ll play in 120 games. Can’t wait for 119 years from now when he plays in one game. Forget Josh Naylor, it’s more like Josh Nailedyourpattern! Yo, Josh Patternor, try to fool me with a new one, I aced my SATs! Even more impressive than his random games played, he had a 13.7% strikeout rate last year. If he qualified, that would’ve been top ten in majors, right behind Kyle Tucker.
Let’s do something though. Let’s remove players who have a Hard Contact under 33%. Because just not striking out does not a superstar make. When removing guys who just make contact but weak contact (Arraez, McNeil, Keibert Ruiz, Kwan), you’re left with these names who make great contact and it’s hard (hey now!): Jose Ramirez, Ronald Acuña Jr., Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker. That’s it for 13.7% K-rate and under and 33% Hard Contact and over. If you open it a little bit to 16.5% K-rate but still the same Hard Contact, here’s those: Marcus Semien, Vlad Jr., Mookie Betts, Verdugo, Yandy Diaz, Tommy Edman, Will Smith, Ozzie Albies, Corey Seager, and Arenado. Ha, what is there, one bad name? Two? So, is Josh Naylor more like all of those names or is he Tommy Edman? If you look at the averages for those guys, there’s only one guy under .250 (Edman), and six are over .300. Usually don’t spend so much time on batting average, but Josh Naylor is a legit .300 hitter. At worst, he’s hitting .285.
Josh Naylor’s Launch Angles the last three years: 9, 10.3, 12.3. His flay ball rate last year was 36.8%. He’s still a line drive machine (20.5%), but he’s finally getting to a place where he will hit enough fly balls at the age of 27, where I wouldn’t feel silly projecting him for 25+homers. Is he going to hit 40 homers? Not without a huge change to his approach, that we don’t necessarily want, or without Rob Manfred reaching into his pocket and pulling out a magic “Everyone Can Hit 50 Homers” ball. He’s not in the easiest stadium for homers, but he’s about to turn 27, and I could see him doing the “rocking the cradle” home run trot more so this year than any in the past. Wait, when he’s rocking the cradle on home run trots, maybe he’s saying to everyone he’s a sleeper? Hmm…
As for his speed, well, Josh Naylor just stole ten bags. How? I’m not exactly sure. He runs like he’s got a doodie in his pants. He’s a good example of how many steals a guy can steal with the new rules, because he has one-steal speed, and he just stole ten. So, the rule changes added ten steals. Will he steal ten bags again? I have no clue. I could see anywhere from one steal to, well, I guess ten. I wouldn’t expect more than that. Josh Naylor is going to be a popular fantasy baseball sleeper this year, and there’s very good reason. He’s on the verge of superstardom. For 2024 fantasy baseball, I’ll give Josh Naylor projections of 79/26/102/.302/6 in 514 ABs with a chance for more.
