I’m working on a Top 100 update right now, and I’m struggling to make a case for anyone above Pirates RHP Paul Skenes. Sure, Jackson Holliday is a safer bet given the reality of every pitcher who’s ever thrown this hard getting hurt, but Skenes is such a unicorn, I’m inclined to stop treating him like a regular human baseball player. Part of it is the struggle to keep my brain functioning exclusively in the fantasy baseball realm, where of course it makes sense to pick the hitters over the pitchers 99.9 percent of the time. I just think this feels like that 0.1 percent of the time, and it’s hard to imagine any real baseball teams would prefer another prospect to Skenes. A guy like him can carry you through the playoffs, if you happen to make the playoffs, especially if he’s paired with another dynamite young arm like Jared Jones. I ranked Skenes 12th in my Top 25 Fantasy Prospects: Opening Day 2024, and I feel pretty foolish about that today. I had some worries about his health given how long it had been since we’d seen him pitch and how he finished 2023, but that’s a distant memory now.
Atlanta RHP Hurston Waldrep (22, AA) is another 2023 draftee scaling the system. He had a rough April (1.89 WHIP) before settling in during May (1.05 WHIP), but he’s not the shiniest bauble in the organization. That honor goes to RHP Owen Murphy (20, A+), who should soon be joining Waldrep in Mississippi. Through 41 innings spread across seven starts (that’s almost six innings per, if you’re counting at home), Murphy has a 0.73 WHIP and 31 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate. The 20th overall pick in the 2022 draft, Murphy has always minimized home runs, but his off-speed command has made a leap this year and pushed his strikeout rate into the stratosphere.
Dodgers 2B OF Miguel Vargas (24) struggled through his rookie year after a hairline pinkie fracture in February then a beanball to the thumb in April and then a mechanical issue likely born from efforts to compensate in the kinetic chain. The club didn’t really have anyone else to cover second base at the time, so Vargas kept trying to play through the pain. Fast forward a year, and a red hot healthy Vargas is coming up as 3B Max Muncy heads to the injured list flailing OF James Outman goes down to Triple-A. In 39 games, Vargas has eight homers, eight steals and a slash line of .295/.436/.583. He also has more walks (34) than strikeouts (30). I’ve seen some speculation that he’ll be relegated to the short side of a platoon with Jason Heyward, but I’d be surprised if that was his ultimate fate. He can play multiple positions and got 304 plate appearances in half a season for a first-place team last year on plate skills alone. I will be making some trade offers for him in a league or two.
I might also send an offer or two out for Diamondbacks OF Druw Jones (A), who has been showing big improvements over the past month, slashing .338/.448/.521 with a 16.1-to-26.4 walk-to-strikeout rate in 21 games since April 17. His full-season strikeout rate is still 36.1 percent thanks to a dreadful start, so there might be a little window here where the stats don’t line up to the skills. It’ll be league to league on whether or not the hype has died down enough to make Jones available, but it can’t hurt to check. In a league that’s been going for a minute where somebody tanked to get the first pick and then took Jones over Holliday, he’s probably not on the market. In a league that started this year, where somebody got a price break on him, he’s probably a flippable asset for a contender.
Another high-profile prospect making good, Nationals RHP Andry Lara (21, AA) was arguably the top arm in his international class but had posted ERAs in the fours and fives throughout his career entering 2024, which he opened with a repeat trip to High-A after throwing 98.1 innings there last year. This went better this time around, and he graduated the level after 30.2 innings with a 2.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He was undaunted by the new level in his Double-A debut, too, tossing 6.1 shutout innings with a 0.95 WHIP. I had him at the bottom of my pickup list a couple times in the Razz30 before he got scooped up by somebody else, and now I am sad.
Guardians SS Angel Genao (19, A) fits the Cleveland prototype of a switch-hitting middle infielder with good plate skills and excellent hands in both the field and the batter’s box. He returned to Low-A to start the season after getting eight games there in 2022 and another 72 games there last year. He’s at 32 games played this year with a slash line of .313/.357/.531 with five home runs and four stolen bases. Probably won’t be in Low-A much longer. Also it’s his birthday today. Happy Birthday, Angel!
Cut Me, Mick! (Guys I’ve dropped in dynasty leagues)
If you love something, you sometimes have to let it go. If it comes back, you were meant to be together. It did not feel good to separate myself from Diamondbacks OF Kristian Robinson (23, AA) in a 15-team dynasty league where I’m off to a fast start in first place, but I need that roster spot to hunt for minor-league eligible outfielders and relievers I can swap in and out of my lineups. I still have K-Rob in a 20-teamer and a 30-teamer, but his days might be numbered there as well, considering his slash line of .159/.250/.159 in 19 games. It’s not that I’m out on him. It’s just that I think I’ll be the first to notice if he starts hitting again, which gives me an edge in picking him back up if need be, and man I hope it need be.
In the same league where I pulled the plug on Robinson, Athletics RHP Gunnar Hoglund (24, AA) was just clogging up a roster spot. He’s been on that squad twice this year already. I’ll bet he’s back at some point, but right now, I don’t really need a pitcher with a 15.9 percent K-BB rate and 4.63 ERA in Double-A
Thanks for reading!
