Prospect News: Slowpening Day Jitters Or Leiter Than Mayo

I got pretty excited to have baseball with my morning coffee this week. Sure, I’ve been watching a lot of “baseball” already, but spring training rings pretty hollow compared to the real thing. Even without Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, the Dodgers defeated the Cubs with ease. I don’t want to alarm anyone, but Los Angeles might be a problem this season. 

Rangers RHP Jack Leiter is throwing hard this spring and kicking his change up like all the cool kids are doing these days, and he’s finally getting some results after a pro career peppered by unexpected struggles. He’s all but locked up a spot in the season-opening rotation and could hold it all season if he can keep the ball in the strike zone and generate better outcomes than the 8.83 ERA he posted in 35.2 MLB innings last season. 

Orioles 3B Coby Mayo was sent to Triple-A, where he’ll wind up with more than 1,000 at bats by the time he graduates the level. For years here, I’ve been writing about the sorting issue a lot of good organizations face navigating the bottleneck of 40 and 26-man rosters. Baltimore has become the poster child for this conundrum. It’s not what you want. The Cubs once decided to let Kyle Schawrber go instead of paying him $8 million for one season, in case you’re wondering how weird things can get. Connor Norby wants to hit 30 home runs this season, which is just a thought that passed unbidden through my mind to my fingers and now, to you, dear reader. 

Cardinals DH Luken Baker has a seven-to-seven strikeout-to-walk rate alongside his four spring homers, slashing .278/.386/.611 in 36 at bats. He could bust a bold prediction of mine if the team gives him a shot this season. He’d certainly finish within the top 25 DH’s if he played full time. 

Padres 1B OF Gavin Sheets and his six spring homers are making a run at a strong-side spot in San Diego. Gonna be tough to cut a guy slashing .311/.367/.756, but Roster Resource sees it that way for now, with Tyler Wade, Eguy Rosario, and Jason Heyward making the team instead. Might go that way. They’ve also got OF Tirso Ornelas getting bounced. Just tough to foresee how this will play out until it does. 

Nationals SS CJ Abrams has struck out twice in 42 at bats. He also has two home runs, one walk, and zero stolen base attempts. Something’s happening here, and isn’t exactly clear, but I want Abrams anywhere I can get him. 

Rockies 3B Charlie Condon broke his left wrist and will miss at least six weeks. He’s been on a difficult path as a pro and might wind up a Zac Veen type of almost-free player for leagues that do a startup draft in 2026 if he sputters at all when he returns. 

Pirates C Joey Bart is slashing .357/.457/.679 with three home runs, six walks and eight strikeouts. I watched him muscle an easy shot out to right field and realized, in that moment, that he’s just about to fully arrive as a premium power option at catcher for the long term. 

Rockies OF Sean Bouchard is at .378/.395/.757 with three home runs, ten strikeouts and zero walks. Might feel like he has to hit his way onto the team, and he might be in the process of doing exactly that. 

I was listening to Effectively Wild this weekend and heard them going on and on and on about breakout lists and how nobody’s breakout list meets their specifications of players who are obscure enough to actually break out. Then they had two guests on who put together breakout lists for each team in this same, irritated-with-other-breakout-lists way, and both of those people agreed about the guy they started with, who was, drumroll for the obscurity, Pirates 2B Nick Yorke. That’s right: first-round pick Nick Yorke. Very demure. But what’re we doing here? I don’t mind Yorke as a breakout pick, but I don’t appreciate the long oopty oop on the way to a first-round pick by a prominent organization. Just do your breakout podcast. Don’t take hush-hush shots at your competitors and then mention five first-rounders among the seven guys you discuss. People can hear you, you know. 

A decent breakout pick might be someone like Yankees C Ben Rice is slashing .270/.340/.558 with four home runs, 13 strikeouts and four walks. Safe to say he’ll get his chances while Giancarlo Stanton is sidelined. Intriguing stuff in two-catcher leagues. 

People are picking up White Sox RHP Mike Clevinger in all my leagues, but I can’t bring myself to do that. Perhaps they just haven’t read anything related to the situation. Perhaps they play the game in this Ozuna-focused way in general, but I tend to avoid players I’d rather not watch, which has me rooting against closer Clevinger and hoping White Sox RHP Penn Murfee gets a look in the ninth. He’s been dominant as a major leaguer, missed 2024 with Tommy John, and has come back dominant again so far this spring. It’s a sidearm slash submarine look, and those guys don’t often end up in the ninth, but hey, anything could happen on the south side this year. 

Pirates Manager Clint Hurdle wasted no time in declaring closer David Bednar’s job to be in jeopardy. Bednar posted a scoreless frame in response, and Dennis Santana might be next man up, but I like Carmen Mlodzinski for a dart toss in deeper leagues. Be curious. His barrel rate was 99th percentile at 2.8 percent across 50.2 innings. Yes please for my future closer please. Santana, with the higher strikeout rate, should be better with inherited runners than a baseball killer in the vein of Emmanuel Clase. Will be interesting to see what the buckos decide. 

Thanks for reading!