Prospect News: Fresh Fish For Sale or Arraez, Chicken! Arraez!

Having opened the season on a nine-game losing streak, the Marlins started swimming against the current early in 2024 and have apparently grown tired of the effort, swapping almost two full seasons of Luis Arraez for a package of four decent Padres’ prospects: OF Dillon Head, OF Jakob Marsee, 1B Nathan Martorella, and RHP Woo-Suk Go. The Marlins will reportedly also cover Arraez’s salary (down to the minimum) for 2024. It’s the first big move by Miami’s new head of baseball operations, Peter Bendix, who comes to South Beach via Tampa and has experienced his fair share of high-wire trades. On the other side of the country, we find AJ Preller doing what he does best, flipping an assortment of imperfect prospects for someone he can play tomorrow. 

You probably know plenty about Arraez. Here’s what I wrote about these other guys in the San Diego Padres Top 10 Prospects for 2024 Fantasy Baseball: 

“5. OF Jakob Marsee | 22 | AA | 2024

Even before the Juan Soto trade, we were likely to see the 6-foot 180-pound Marsee in the major leagues at some point in 2024. He played his way to Double-A during the 2023 season and ended it with a fantastic stretch in the Arizona Fall League. In 24 AFL games, Marsee slashed .391/.508/.707 with five home runs and 16 stolen bases. He played just 16 games at in Double-A, but AJ Preller has always written his own rulebook when it comes to prospect promotions, so I’m not sure his lack of upper-minors experience will push his debut into the summertime, especially with Trent Grisham tailing Juan Soto out of town. 

9. 1B Nathan Martorella | 23 | AA | 2025

A power hitter at 6’1” 224 lbs from the left side, Martorella’s best feature is his ability to minimize strikeouts. There’s a Vinnie P starter kit here with a chance for a late bounce up the prospect lists if it looks like Martorella is going to get a good long look at a regular lineup spot. In 135 games (582 PA) across two levels, he struck out 101 times, drew 82 walks and popped 19 home runs. 

10. OF Dillon Head | 19 | A | 2027

The 25th overall pick in the 2023 draft, Head is a 6’0” 185 lb left handed hitter with plus speed who controls the strike zone and should add power as he ages. He’s the seventh lefty bat on this list, all of whom are about six-foot tall with solid plate skills. Head played 14 games on the complex (124 wRC+) and 13 games in Low-A (78 wRC+), where he figures to open the 2024 season. He’ll probably remain in centerfield throughout his development and should do well on public-facing, real-baseball lists throughout his minor league career so long as he’s hitting.”

And that’s me quoting winter me, still months away from finishing the top ten lists, poor bastard.

Marsee and Head are off to slow starts, but Martorella is playing well and might get a mid-season look in Miami, who would probably love to send Josh Bell along to anyone with an empty tower at first base or DH. I don’t really care about Head’s outcomes at this point, which is part of the problem if you’re Miami. He’s so far away that it doesn’t really matter that he can’t really hit at level yet. With Marsee, I would speculate that he thinks he shouldn’t be in Double-A and is a little frustrated. Trouble is he’s not a classic center fielder defensively and might not be able to hack it there in the majors, which puts a ton of pressure on the bat. They have Jazz covering center in Miami, so maybe they don’t mind as much, but also, might they trade Jazz if someone plays the right tune? 

2B Vidal Brujan is the near-term inheritor of an extended look. He’d already been playing every day while 3B Jake Burger’s in the fridge, but now we enter a period that shall forever be known as the Brujanaissanse. I do not like this trade for Miami, but I love how Bendix has stuck with a guy that he clearly liked in Tampa and seems to be reaping some reward from that confidence. 

The inclusion of RHP Woo-Suk Go feels particularly sharp from Preller, who now gets to move on from a mistake that clogged up a 40-man roster spot and a couple million bucks. “Mistake” isn’t even a fair characterization when you can just trade a guy at any time. It reduces the risk of most transactions, knowing you can probably get out of it. Except for the Xander Bogaerts deal. That one’s a little scary today. Preller couldn’t get out of the Hosmer deal either, come to think of it. 

Marlins OF Victor Mesa Jr. (22, AAA) is slashing .295/.351/.523 with five home runs and a 16.5 percent strikeout rate. He slashed .242/.308/.412 with a 22.9 percent strikeout rate in 123 Double-A games last year, so it’s fair to wonder if this leap in hit tool is sustainable, but it’s worth exploring. 

22-year-old White Sox 3B Bryan Ramos was recalled from Double-A Birmingham despite slashing .182/.265/.307 in 24 games there this year. He posted a 122 wRC+ in 77 games there last season, so he shouldn’t have been at that level anyway, but it’s still weird to jump a level with a guy who’s ice cold in Double-A. From the outside, it’s easy to assume it’s another sign of faulty processes in place throughout that organization. 

Itch-favorite RHP Christian Scott debuted Tuesday evening and is good enough to hold down a spot for a Mets team that might be good enough to contend after an inert off-season. 

And now to try a new segment here in the appendix of this piece. 

Cut Me, Mick! (Guys I’ve dropped in dynasty leagues)

Nobody likes to admit they’re wrong. It helps to have caveats. In the fantasy baseball sense, it helps to think of everything as temporary, at least for me. When I make a move on a given day, I try to remember it was specific to that day. It’s easy to look back at transactions with the wisdom of Captain Hindsight. These guys you drop today: that doesn’t mean you never wanna see ’em again. Over the years, I’ve found I’m probably going to get the guy back at some point. I’m tracking them closer than anyone because I just cut them, and I know for a fact they’re a free agent, where other people might assume the player is rostered. 

Tigers 3B Justice Bigbie (25, AAA): power gains from 2023 have yet to carry over. Loaded system. 

Orioles RHP Chayce McDermott (25, AAA): command gains from 2023 haven’t carried over yet. Loaded team. Was always a proximity play based on a perceived window in early 2024. That said, he was good his last time out, so I might bring him back a week after letting him go. 

I don’t know what the Cardinals are doing with 2B Jose Fermin, but I don’t have time to find out in a daily 15-teamer where every spot matters. 

Reds RHP Julian Aguiar (22, AA) is still a fine prospect. I just needed the spot for something else in the tightly contested Razz 30. 

Guardians RHP Ethan Hankins (23, AA)  has pitched just once this year, covering 1.2 innings on April 7. Safe to say he might be there for me next time I’m considering him for a roster spot in the Razz 30. 

Happy Cinco De Mayo!

Thanks for reading!