Happy Weekend, Razzball Nation! First and foremost, if anyone is a regular reader of the DFS notes, I’ll tell you that I haven’t gotten the calendar mixed up! I DO know that it’s Saturday and not Wednesday (the regular MarmosDad day for DFS goodness). Truss asked if I could cover for a player profile post this weekend and I’m more than happy to oblige.
Earlier this week, I picked a few hitters to start some research on then realized that I could do a bit of a dip into the relief pitchers that we rarely get to mention over in the DFS pond. I didn’t want to just go with Buys and Sells, especially since Grey just posted his yesterday, so I looked at a couple of things for the players that I have for you below. (1) Which guys stood out on the rest of season player rater as either good bets to continue to produce for the final 3 weeks, or (2) Are there some players that may be worth a second look as potential keepers for next year?
I also assumed that everyone’s trade deadline has long passed, but if your keeper league still allows for FA pickups or off-season trades, these guys might be decent bets in 2023 to either out-perform their ADPs from this season or could ride some impressive numbers into bigger roles in both real and fantasy baseball as we head down the homestretch and start thinking towards next year!
Hitters :
(Fantrax 29% rostered ; Yahoo! 14% rostered)
I absolutely realize that I am contradicting myself by profiling a player that Grey included in his yesterday’s Buy, but Friedl fits as one of those players that might still be available in your leagues, and could at the very least be a good option to roster as a replacement if you have a guy like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (who was just placed on the 10 day IL retroactive to September 8th). I wrote up Friedl as a decent value play in my DFS article last Wednesday, and there is reason to think that he should have a higher ownership in our season-long leagues.
Friedl started the year with the Reds and in 100 PA managed to hit .200 with 0 HR, 13 R, 7 RBI and 5 SB. Somewhat appropriately, that’s a Clifford The Big Red Dog sized WOOF. BUT…since his recall on August 16th, Friedl has hit to the tune of 5 HR, a .404 AVG, and a 1.265 OPS in 59 PA. He’s not exactly breaking down the walls if he’s in another organization, but in a Reds OF that doesn’t look like it has a lot of tough competition, he certainly is making his case to play more than just against RHP (as he has since his recall) and may even play his way onto their opening roster in April.
And lastly, how can you argue with this flow? Not to mention the (albeit rare) home run label “F-BOMB” kind of speaks for itself.
? BOOM! ?
TJ Friedl has his first career multi-HR game! pic.twitter.com/BBEYOeKApQ
— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) September 4, 2022
For now, he’s at least worth a roll of the dice to replace any OF/UT injuries while he’s a hot schmotato. At best, he’s figured something out after his recall and could be worth looking at next spring in deeper leagues as a reserve or late round flier. To borrow a bit from Grey’s line yesterday…Which Cincinnati outfielder has the worst chance of breaking camp next spring? TJIF – That Jabroni Isn’t Friedl!
(Fantrax : 100% rostered ; Yahoo! : 96% rostered)
Ok, I know what you’re thinking. How do you go from TJ Friedl to a guy that was the top prospect coming into the year and 100% owned in most leagues? (side note: what kind of leagues are the 4% in Yahoo! that don’t have this guy rostered?)
Hear me out. This one is less about finding a diamond in the rough and more about the part that I mentioned about off-season trading potential or players moving up the ADP for 2023.
Witt is currently ranked 22nd on the ROS player rater and it’s safe to say he’s performed up to a lot of those lofty expectations that people had of him in April. The consensus ADP in spring had Witt at #98 or roughly an 8th round pick in a standard 12 team league. Yes, his draft position was depressed because of questions of whether or not he would break camp with the team, but this is a kid that will never have to worry about the minors again. Already surpassing the 20/20 milestone (20 HR, 27 SB), Witt has shown that he can more than handle major league pitching. Does he get drafted as a top 3 SS in 2023? I think that’s a definite yes. Does he have a strong enough lineup around him that he’ll continue to see good pitches? Again, yes. Can he improve on an already strong showing and blow 30/30 out of the water next season? With health, I’d bet yes on that one too.
The only question left to answer is how can you get him onto your fantasy team. If you’re in a redraft league, get ready to move him up at least 5 rounds from his ADP this year. If you’re in a keeper league, depending on your roster size and player protection rules, you might be able to talk up his not-so-impressive .246 average to your league mates and send a trade offer that at least tempts his manager to think about a move. It all depends on the strength of your keeper list and what you can afford to deal, but for a player like Witt (who may have SS and 3B eligibility in your league), it’s at least worth a shot to see what prying him loose from the competition would take.
Pitchers :
(Fantrax : 99% rostered ; Yahoo! : 96% rostered)
Just to get it out of the way first, this one may lean a bit towards ‘homerism’. Anyone who’s checked in to the DFS notes knows that MarmosDad HQ is located north of the border and, as such, those chattering Blue Jays are considered a hometown team – no matter where or how far across this wide-reaching country you happen to reside. Cutting to the chase, (and sufficiently burying the lede here), this one falls closer to the Witt profile than the Friedl one. You’re not catching Jordan Romano on the FA wire in many leagues, that’s for sure…but what if I told you…Jordan Romano could be the top closer in baseball in 2023? And that may not be as crazy a take as it may seem to some right now.
At 18.6 ROS points, Romano ranks 16th on the ROS player rater overall for pitchers and is behind only Josh Hader, Edwin Diaz, and Liam Hendricks for RP. As a frame of reference, Gerrit Cole tops the list at 37.2 and both Hader and Diaz check in at 23.2 and 21.6 respectively. This year there was a pretty healthy group of fantasy players that were touting the strategy of drafting top closers early because they wanted a ‘stable’ stopper…then got burned by Josh Hader and Aroldis Chapman. Yes, this is a bit of cherry-picking but I’ll let you in on a little secret that those of us that follow baseball north of the border knew way back in April…Jordan Romano is a lights-out reliever…and he’s a bit of a maniac.
For those of you looking for the numbers to justify these claims, how about the second-half stats for our Canadian-born reliever? Since returning after the All Star break (July 23), Romano has 11 saves in 19.1 IP, a 10.24 K/9, and a very healthy 86th percentile in chase rates (tied with names like Shane McClanahan in the top 50). When he gets hit, it still goes out quickly, but Romano has continued to build a case this year for a top closer in baseball as he enters his age 30 season next year.
Does he have a lot of competition for the role? Outside of a fragile Nate Pearson, no. Does he have an electric fastball and the ability to mix in an above-average slider? Yep. Does he have that ever-so-popular-old-school-closer-mentality? You tell me.
My alternate theory:
Romano couldn't use Edwin Díaz's entrance song, so he just plays it in his head before every pitch. ? pic.twitter.com/fgZvOC85RT
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 31, 2022
I said to Truss, this reminds me of another closer from the olden days – Mitch Williams – who, coincidentally, also had a pretty famous moment in that venue formerly known as the Skydome.
At the very least, Romano definitely has a superfan in his own first baseman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
.@27vladdyjr copying Romano’s stance ?@BlueJays | #NextLevel pic.twitter.com/hIWN7tX1Hr
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) August 31, 2022
If you’re looking for a keeper closer that has a shot at being the top dog in MLB next year, you might be able to swing a deal for this one. He gets 5 bonus points up here for being Canadian, but loses 5 for choosing to play for Italy in the WBC (his mother is Italian and they took him for the last tournament in 2017). Being loyal goes a long way up here though, so I assume there’s still nothing but love for the top stopper in Toronto.
(Fantrax : 62% rostered ; Yahoo! : 42% rostered)
Following the ROS player rater, Duran (sadly, the only one of the trio from my AL only team still in the majors right now) checks in as the 59th ranked pitcher. This one is a bit from column A and a bit from column B with what I gave you above. Can a very good RP get enough IP over the next 3-ish weeks to make a big difference in ratios? Maybe not. Is Duran a lights out closer that can give you a boost in the saves category? Thanks to an equally impressive Jorge Lopez, that’s not even a real option either. But will he hurt your ERA and WHIP? No. Is he a decent FA pickup for those that can still carry over good arms with the potential to move into a bigger role in 2023? I think you know where I’m going with this.
But first…some numbers for all of you stat heads. There are 8 relievers that are averaging 99 MPH on their fastball this season. Duran is one of those 8. In fact, in my research this week I came across a factoid that Duran has thrown 100 more 100+ MPH pitches than any other pitcher this season. That sounds pretty ridiculous but I don’t think anyone can argue that his arm is electric.
bUt WhAt AbOuT tHe oFfSpEeD?…
Jhoan Duran, 103mph Fastball and 90mph Curveball, Overlay.
Good luck. ? pic.twitter.com/uPcf2I4TIY
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 7, 2022
Nasty.
This quote from Carlos Correa may be a bit biased, but I think it’s hard to argue too.
“He’s on top of his game right now. He’s the elite of the elite out there. When you talk about the best bullpen arms in the big leagues, you talk about Edwin Diaz, you talk about Jhoan Duran.”
Again, I’m not saying that he’s a shoo-in for the closer role in 2023, and with Jorge Lopez entering his first year of arbitration he definitely has competition. But, would it be crazy to see Lopez’s salary jump to a level that the Twins wouldn’t be comfortable paying? Would the Twins shop their current all-star closer for pieces that could help improve the team (SP, anyone?) because they have a very capable replacement in Duran? This might be a bit of rhetoric, and anyone that throws as hard as Duran always comes with the caveat of looming arm trouble, but if you can scoop this guy off of the waiver wire now and stash him in a full or even partial keeper, it might be worth the gamble come April 2023.
Well, I hope you enjoyed the words here! If you have any questions or comments about trade ideas, these profiles, or other player analyses you want to see, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments below or shoot me a message on Twitter @MarmosDad!
