LOGIN

Went back and searched my posts for every mention of the word “sleeper” until the All-Star Break. So, if I said, “(player’s name) was going to be a 2025 fantasy baseball sleeper,” I made note of it with a slash. By the time I was done, if you put the Parker Meadows slashes on a tree, it would’ve looked like Tom Hanks in Castaway. It was like this over the last few months of the season, “I gotta write a 2025 fantasy baseball sleeper for Parker Meadows,” “How long until I can write a 2025 fantasy baseball sleeper for Parker Meadows?” “Have I written a Parker Meadows 2025 fantasy baseball sleeper or have I just mentioned it so much that it feels like I’ve written it already?” By the time I was done searching three months of daily roundups, it felt like Parker Meadows wasn’t a 2025 fantasy baseball sleeper anymore, but ya know what? Eff that, bros, four sisters and one sista! I’m highlighting this em-effer!

Oh, guess what, snitches? We’re done with the fantasy baseball rookies and onto the 2025 fantasy baseball sleepers! Can I get a what-WHAT?! No, the 2nd “what” is louder, not from the standing position. That’s what caps mean:  louder. You thought caps meant it was said while wearing a baseball cap? You have a malfunctioning brain. Okay, forget it! I’m moving on! One ground rule about fantasy baseball sleepers says you can’t question my fantasy baseball sleepers. I kid, kinda. You can question them if you want, but please keep in mind the caveat: There’s many different types of sleepers. One kind of sleeper is the guy who is drafted in the last round of a 30-team league. Another type of sleeper is the guy who is drafted around pick 85 overall, because he can return value that is better than pick 85. So, is Parker Meadows going to be drafted around pick 7,000 out of 7,001? No, guys and five ladies. He’s not that type of sleeper. He’s the type who I will be drafting around the top 100, will be drafted after that in most leagues, and will return more value than his draft spot. The “more value than his draft spot” is really all sleepers are. So, please, don’t say Parker Meadows is not a sleeper. If he’s not a sleeper, then draft him in the 1st round. So, what can we expect from Parker Meadows for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

PSYCHE! I’m going to begin rolling out my 2025 fantasy baseball rankings on the Patreon starting today. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, the Parker Meadows sleeper:

Last year in 133 games and 472 ABs, Parker Meadows went 17/28, so you might be wondering how bad is his average because I’m not mentioning it. Well, smart guy, I was about to mention it. He hit .244 in the majors. So, you might be thinking now, “Wow, his BABIP must’ve been crazy high. His strikeouts must be nuts. He must be terrible for contact.” Okay, slow down. Can I get a word in? “Let’s go!” Fine! His contact wasn’t bad. He had a 25.5 K% and a .306 BABIP. Neutrally, he likely is closer to a .260 hitter than .244. “So, he went 17/28/.244 as a rookie?” No. I was doing some fuzzy math. He went 9/9/.244 in the majors in 270 ABs. He went 8/19/.292 in Triple-A in 202 ABs. “So, he didn’t go 17/28?” No, not technically. “Okay, technically, you’re an idiot.”

Don’t love Comerica Park and not because it sounds like it was named after a character on Seinfeld. That’s a reason to like it. I don’t love it, because it’s perennially a bottom third park for offense. Last year it was 25th worst in the league for power and 22nd overall, worse than Camden in both respects. Or to disrespect, what the eff? That he’s a lefty also concerns me a decent amount because Kevin Cash Brain has infected all MLB managers and no one wants lefties to face lefties unless they’re a top two-point-five percent player. Yordan? Fine! Shohei Ohtani? Great! Parker Meadows? Meh. Don’t love that, but if he loses 50 ABs against the toughest lefties, faces weak lefties and bats leadoff, then his counting stats shouldn’t be too affected by lefty-on-lefty matchups.

So, neutrally .260, and runs should be solid and RBIs good enough for a leadoff guy, anything we’re missing? Oh, yeah, speed and power! That’s where he is a 60-grade guy for both. Last year he had nine homers and nine steals in 82 MLB games–“Did you say 82 games?!” Hey, Mr. Prorater. “That doubles to 18/18!” Yes, it does. “As a rookie, that’s pretty good prorating.” Thanks, Mr. Prorater. He’s right, of course. If he doesn’t grow into more power or speed he’s roughly a 20/20/.260 hitter. He just turned 25 years old. Why wouldn’t he grow into more power and speed? Not to answer, but to ruminate. If he hits for more power this year, as he’s begun to do in the minors, and continues to steal, it’s not hard to see a 25/35/.260 guy here. Realistically, a 25/25/.260 looks well within the realm of possibilities. That’s what you’re hoping to get from Michael Harris II but have never seen. At worse, he looks like the Michael Harris II we’ve already seen. Call him Michael Harris II, the Second. Oh, and he’s being drafted 120 picks after Michael Harris II, the First. Won’t you give Michael Harris II, the Second a chance chance? For 2025, I’ll give Parker Meadows projections of 76/20/60/.258/26 in 509 ABs with a chance for much more.

Subscribe
Notify of
guest

25 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
LenFuego
LenFuego
1 month ago

One more thing worth noting is that Meadows went a dismal 7 for 73 through May in the majors last year. Once he came back up and settled in in July, he hit .299 the rest of the way in 213 plate appearances, and looked the part. I am more optimistic that AAA adjustments last year could unlock a jump in that .244 average than that he will outperform those 18/20 or so power/speed pro-rated projections.

The Judge
The Judge
1 month ago

Hoskins,Bell,Torkelson,Miranda and Candelaria? How would you rank the top three? If you had to choose one? Thanks!

Richard
Richard
1 month ago

Eager for 2025 and maybe better question for Laura Holt but in a AL only league we have Witt, Alvarez,Kwan, R Green, Y Diaz, OHoope. Weak pitching (Pivetta, Olson & Litell). High inflation but we have all these for good value, all the above for $91 out of $260. One space left
Framber bet for $37 or W Abreu $5 or one of these for $2 : J Sears, Y Rodriguez, J Miranda, R Detmers.
Best strategy? At our Auction there will be talented players but at serious inflation over your typical numbers (ie Framber’s cost)

Smitty
1 month ago

And the first capital Z goes next to…Parker. Confess to giving capital Z’s on my chart extra consideration as I contemplate my choices at the draft table. These sleeper posts are actually wake up calls, keep’em comin!

Sport
Sport
Reply to  Smitty
1 month ago

Love the idea of capital Z! I use a couple of spreadsheets with all Grey’s projections by position but tend to forget which ones were the sleepers!

Stl Squat Cobblers
Stl Squat Cobblers
1 month ago

Love it Grey! Parker seems like a steal. I snoozed on him in me first DC…

But we’re ready to take a shot on him in the next DC. Let’s get it: RazzDC C’mon yo!

Smitty
Reply to  Stl Squat Cobblers
1 month ago

Yeah I missed on him too! Let’s go!

Stl Squat Cobblers
Stl Squat Cobblers
Reply to  Grey
1 month ago

I’m open to whatever Fantasy Master Lothario!

(fml? literally just found out what this means! Man, that younger generation feels like it’s a little ‘glass half empty’, no?)

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 month ago

Count me in tomorrow if it doesnt fill today. Its a slow gladiator, right? When would it start?

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 month ago

How long for picks?

Sport
Sport
1 month ago

It’s sleeper season! Some of my favorite posts! Not only do I used these in redraft leagues, but these are guys I’ll turn around and start targeting in some dynasty leagues.

Also, winter meetings coming up. Really hoping the Royals can add a bat to put in the 4 or 5 hole. India, Witt, Vinnie, Salvy, Santander? Yes sir! India, Witt, Vinnie, Salvy, Tyler O’Neil? Sure! India, Witt, Vinnie, Salvy, Joc Pederson? I can dig that!

Thanks for all your time Grey! Probably will bouncing trade ideas off of you!

J.R.
J.R.
1 month ago

Me likey that final stat line. Definitely would love that. Not a sleeper, drafting in first round! YOU TOLD ME TOO!

Do you know how offense by stadium is calculated? I know Comerica was gigantic, and theyve tried to make it a bit smaller over the years. Youd thing all that real estate would equal space for offense that is not a HR. I know hitters complain, but power guys like Cabrera and JD Martinez never had noticeable splits home vs away for HR. Is it just the guys with middling power get out elsewhere and that is warning track material? I get it, big stadium, and seemingly never much wind. Bottom 1/3 I get, just curious of how those numbers work and if it takes into account the awful hitters or not.

Kikuchi was not overpay. I was wrong.

“The Cubs have agreed with left-hander Matthew Boyd on a two-year deal that will guarantee him $29MM, per a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The deal includes $1MM in performance bonuses that could take the total guarantee to $30MM over two years.”

Wow.

Norman Ginsberg
Norman Ginsberg
Reply to  Grey
1 month ago

Ballpark factor takes the runs scored by Team X (and its competitors) in Team X’s home ballpark and divides the figure by the runs scored by Team X and its competitors in Team X’s road contests.

I always assumed Boyd is the typical guy WAR assumes as a “replacement pitcher” if the major leaguer gets hurt.

J.R.
J.R.
Reply to  Norman Ginsberg
1 month ago

Thanks! Does that mean a pitching staff could alter the ballpark score.

I see Boyd in Obiwan Kenobi robes pointing to himself about “replacement level”.