The beginning of any fantasy season is the most wonderful time of the year. After mental masturbating over rosters, listening to pods, and reading prognostication after prognostication, the little white ball finally travels from mound to plate, and the live scoring flickers and lights up the screen. We fantasy nerds latch onto every play and either go into bouts of depression when the players we mentally masturbated over all offseason do not perform or victory lap without clothes when our “guys” exceed even our most erotic dreams and desires. After about a month, the honeymoon period ends and the true grind begins. Until then, though, there will be overreactions galore, for better or for worse, ’till death do us part. On April 1st, Trayce Thompson went 3-for-4 with uno, dos, tres homeruns and 8 RBI. Brother Klay Thompson did not play on that night, so Trayce took care of all the treys for the Thompson family. He was on SportsCenter all day and all night. Now, most of you will not and have not fallen for the banana in the tailpipe, but he was scooped up by close to 15% of owners in ESPN leagues. NFBC owners were not immune either, as Thompson is now rostered on 18% of teams. Even though I have assumptions about many things, I do like to do my due diligence….just in case.
Thompson is 32 years old, 6-foot-3, 225 pounds, and bats from the right side. The Chicago White Sox selected him in the second round of the 2009 MLB Draft. He was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2015 then bounced around the league with stints in Oakland, the White Sox again, the Cubs, and the Padres. He returned back to the Dodgers in 2022.
Early in his minor league career, the power was evident, as he bopped 24 and 22 home runs during his third and fourth seasons in Single-A. He also displayed some speed with 18 stolen bases. The batting average wasn’t good, though, and the strikeout rate was high. Not the good high like Cheech and Chong, but more like the radiation level is high.
Two years later, there was marked improvement in his game. The ISO did tick down but that’s because the approach was refined and the strikeout rate plummeted to sub-20%. He even made the big club with the White Sox and slashed .295/.363/.533 with 5 home runs, a 9.6% walk rate, 19.3% strikeout rate, and .238 ISO in 135 plate appearances. The BABIP was .341.
Unfortunately, he was traded to the Dodgers the following season and many things regressed. The strikeout rate spiked back up to 25% while the BABIP swung the other way to .255. For the rest of his career, the strikeout rate remained elevated and the batting average remained muted. It’s looking like those two seasons in Chicago were the outliers. A broken clock is right twice a day, right?
So that’s the background and context to how we should look upon Thompson’s hot start to the season.
Sure, 3 home runs and 8 RBI in a game are nothing to sneeze at but, but, but….
44% strikeout rate. Gross. The swinging strike rate is 16.2% while the chase rate is 45.5%. The contact rate in the zone is 87.5%, the first time over 80% since 2016. Now, it’s been 9 freaking plate appearances. That said, the MO hasn’t changed so I’m not optimistic that Thompson can maintain this heater.
More importantly, the Dodgers have played five games and Thompson has started only two of them. Playing time is going to be a problem and the plate discipline issues haven’t changed. Unless those change, the playing time is going to be more than a problem.
