Norman Schwarzkopf Jr. was a general in the United States Army who planned and coordinated military operations against the Iraqi Army in 1991, earning the nickname Stormin’ Norman in the process. Whether that was because the campaign was named Operation Desert Storm or due to the blitzkreig nature of the attack is up for debate. Regardless, the forces he directed advanced swiftly with ferocity, overwhelming any resistance and defenses they encountered. The same could be said about the start to the season for Nolan Gorman of the St. Louis Cardinals, who hit 13 homers with a .283 ISO and .272/.360/.555 slash over the first two months of the season. Since the start of June, though, the slash is .107/.180/.214 with a .107 ISO. Let’s dig in.
Gorman is 23 years old, 6-foot-1, 210 pounds, and bats from the left side. The Cardinals selected him with the 19th overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft.
From the outset, the power was evident, as the ISO was over .200. The walk rate was over 10% but the strikeout rate was close to 30%. In 2021, the strikeout rate was only 19.2% in 328 plate appearances at Triple-A, but it returned to over 30% the following season.
In 2022, he received 313 plate appearances with the big club and had an 8.9% walk rate, 32.9% strikeout rate, and .194 ISO. In 261 plate appearances this season, the walk rate is 11.1%, strikeout rate is 30.7% and the ISO is .240, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.
The cat-and-mouse battle between pitchers and batters is a constantly evolving process. Once batters find success, pitchers will try and flip the script, poking and prodding defenses to expose any weaknesses. Once they do, they will twist the knife until, either a batter capitulates and bends the knee or adjusts and starts finding success again.
The month-to-month numbers for Gorman show how this battle has progressed.
In the first 104 plate appearances of the season, pitchers were throwing the fastball 52.6% of the time and the slider 15.8%. The line drive rate was 29% for Gorman and he was pulling the ball 51.6% of the time.
Then in May, he accrued 96 plate appearances and things started to change. Pitchers decreased the fastball usage to 43.2% and increased the slider usage to 19.7%. But, Gorman’s strikeout rate decreased to 24% while the ISO increased to .313. An interesting development began to show up, though. According to the Statcast, the put away rate from the fastball increased from 17.9% in April to 22.8% in May.
June is when pitchers cracked the code. They figured out the sequencing and locations to completely flummox Gorman. The slider usage increased to 22.4% while the put away rate on the fastball spiked to 37.1%. Gorman’s pull rate plummeted from over 50% all the way down to 35.7%. Looking at the pitch location heat maps, there have been fewer pitchers inside with more away.
That explains the decrease in pull rate while the chase rate has gone from the mid-20s to 35%. The swinging strike rate has exploded from 13% to 19%.
My interpretation is that Gorman is at the mercy of pitchers right now. They have started to throw more soft stuff away, which has made him more susceptible to the fastball. His timing is off and he’s starting to press. I think he will be able to adjust but you never know about these things, and there’s no way to know how long it could take. In addition, there is uncertainty as to how much leash the Cardinals will give Gorman, especially considering that Jordan Walker could take over DH duties at some point.
