Greetings all and welcome to the first regular season edition of One Man’s Trash. Fantasy drafts are in the books, real baseball is back, and the weather is warming up. Optimism abounds. Wait, Craig Kimbrel was just traded to the Padres? Good thing I drafted Joaquin Benoit in four leagues. %#@! And that brings us to this week’s column. As we await the week one transaction data to analyze in next week’s column, I thought it might be fun to take a look at some of the players who I consider to be fantasy treasures this season, and maybe one or two who are best left on the trash heap. I’ll focus mostly on the positives though, because what’s the point of being negative this early on? I have the entire season to do that! Mwahaha…
So let’s get to it. What’s a good way to determine which players I value more than the masses? How about identifying the players that I own the most frequently? Let’s take a look at the old fantasy portfolio for this season: 4 RCLs, 3 CBS leagues, and 1 NFBC league for a total of 8 leagues. All shallow 10 or 12 team mixed leagues, 5×5 roto redraft formats. There are a few minor differences between the RCLs and the other leagues (start 1 catcher vs 2, daily lineup changes vs weekly, 3 bench spots vs 6), but they’re fairly similar for the most part (start 9 pitchers, 5 outfielders, 1 middle infielder, 1 corner infielder, 1 utility, etc.).
If you draft a player in one or even two out of eight leagues, it can be written off as somewhat fluky. Three out of eight can be considered a target player. Draft a player in at least half of your leagues and it’s a full blown lovefest. Here are the players that I love and will be the most dependent upon for fantasy success this season, aka Magoo’s TREASURES:
Carlos Carrasco (owned in 5 leagues): Oh, am I excited to pour a healthy dose of Carrasco sauce on my teams to spice things up this season. Among all qualified starting pitchers in the 2nd half of 2014, Carrasco led MLB in WHIP, ERA, xFIP, and SwStr%, while finishing tied for 2nd in K-BB% and highest average fastball velocity. Can he maintain that production across a full season? I can’t wait to find out.
Steve Pearce (5x owned): Produced an ISO (.263) that was tied with Tulo for the 6th best mark in MLB among players who made at least 300 PA last season. One of 34 players who managed a BB% of 10+ combined with a K% of less than 20%, and one of only 9 players who managed that feat while producing an ISO of at least .200. Add in dual 1B/OF eligibility and an ADP outside of the top 200 and I’m surprised that I don’t own him everywhere.
Jorge Soler (4x owned): ‘O Sooooler Miiiiiooooo… Sorry, he makes me want to break out into song. Just be glad that you’re not within earshot. Soler killed major league pitching in his limited sample size last season, and when your well-respected manager compares you to Vladimir Guerrero with plate discipline, that’s a very good thing. Upside is through the roof here.
Mike Napoli (4x owned): Looked healthy for the first time in a long time in spring training, and could be a late source of power and run production in a vastly improved Red Sox lineup. A repeat of his 2013 batting line (79/23/92/1/.259) isn’t out of the question.
Charlie Blackmon (4x owned): I didn’t expect to own Blackmon in so many leagues this year. Here’s a player who was 1 home run and 2 stolen bases shy of a 20/30 season in ’14, is firmly in his prime at 28 years old, and plays half of his games in the most hitter friendly environment in all of baseball. Scooped him up outside of the top 100 in each of the four leagues in which I drafted him. Just a case of the regression police taking things a bit too far here.
Chris Davis (4x owned): I’ve already talked about Davis this offseason, but the oblique injury that he suffered last season should be completely healed, and his poor luck (even factoring in the defensive shifts employed against him) is likely to neutralize and bring his batting average back up into respectable (think low-mid .240s) territory. Regaining his Adderall exemption can’t hurt either.
Hanley Ramirez (4x owned): Hanley is one of the biggest risk/reward players in fantasy this season. It’s nice to be able to take advantage of his SS eligibility for one more season, and he’s likely to put a lot of dents into the Green Monster out in Fenway this year. Durability is always an issue here, but in an offensive environment full of question marks, I’ll put my money on a proven power/speed/average option in the early rounds (and I have). Please stay healthy. Pretty please?
Alcides Escobar (4x owned): Who doesn’t love cheap MI speed? Escobar has the 11th highest SB total in baseball among qualified hitters over the last three seasons (88 SBs), is a good bet to hit .270+, and could score 85 runs if he sticks at the top of the Royals lineup. Sounds good to me.
Here is my one and only TRASH option that I’ll leave you with today:
Joaquin Benoit: What do you do with a reliever who has posted the 6th lowest WHIP, 5th lowest ERA, and 5th highest SwStr% among all qualified RPs over the past two seasons? Move him from 9th inning duties into a setup role, apparently. This is less about Benoit than it is about A.J. Preller and John Hart. Might want to make significant trades that potentially impact your team chemistry and performance more than 24 hours removed from Opening Day. Did I mention that I drafted Benoit in four leagues? @$#%! Onto the TRASH heap with you, Preller and Hart (and Benoit *sob*).
Who are some of the potential treasures that you’re pinning your 2015 fantasy baseball hopes on?
