Just hours before the first official pitch of the 2015 MLB regular season was thrown, the Braves traded reliever Craig Kimbrel to the Padres and significantly altered the fantasy values of a couple of players in the process. Joaquin Benoit‘s role changed from projected closer to primary setup man, and his fantasy value took an enormous hit in standard 5×5 formats. Unsurprisingly, he was week one’s most dropped player (-85%). This trade’s main beneficiary from a fantasy perspective appears to be Jason Grilli (+81%), who was easily the most added player in the season’s first week. Grilli promptly locked down three clean saves to solidify his new role as the team’s stopper. While he was effective in the closing role for the Pirates in 2013, Grilli imploded in the first half of last season and was traded into a setup role with the Angels. From treasure to trash to treasure once again. As the one-time R&B/pop sensations Milli Vanilli can attest to, it can be a quick fall from the top of the mountain to the valley below. All it takes is a record skipping or a couple of blown saves to drastically alter one’s fortunes. Guys and four girls, you know it’s true – ooh, ooh, ooh… SAGNOF rules. Here are a couple of this week’s other big add and drops in fantasy baseball:
C.J. Wilson – 56% owned (+53%)
Do people really like those Head & Shoulders commercials that much? Maybe his first start of the season against Seattle reminded some of the 2010-’13 version of Wilson. Eight shutout innings can have that effect on people. He came crashing back down to Earth in his 4/12 start against KC though (5.2 IP, 9 hits, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K). That’s the 2014 Wilson that I came to know, except for the walks. He’s only allowed 2 walks in those 2 starts this season for a microscopic 3.6% BB%. I expect that to correct to something closer to his career rate (10%) as the season progresses though. Combine that with a declining K% (19.8% last season; 20.7% career), and you’re better off passing on this potential ratio killer. TRASH.
Mike Napoli – 65% owned (-13%)
Napoli has plus power, a cool beard, and a hot mom (google Mike Napoli mom New Year’s). What more do you need? Oh, you’d like a few more reasons? No problem. He battled through multiple injuries last season and suffered through a down year (49/17/55/3/.248), but a healthy Napoli in 2013 was a completely different player. Among players with at least 500 plate appearances, he produced the 12th highest BB% (12.6%) and the 15th highest ISO (.223) in all of baseball. His 92 RBIs tied for the 21st most in baseball as well. Guess who’s hitting directly in front of him this year? David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, and Pablo Sandoval. Not too shabby. Did I mention that his 15.6% BB% was the 2nd best mark in baseball last season? OBP leaguers, take note. Those in standard formats can enjoy the gaudy HR and RBI totals that a healthy Napoli should produce in a stacked Red Sox lineup. TREASURE.
