Black. Lives. Matter. Period. Enough of the bullshit. Yes, all lives matter, but all lives are not treated equally, so hopefully people empathize with those who experience life on a different difficulty setting than themselves. Ok, rant over and shoutout to the BLM Movement, but it’s time to talk about the BML Movement. Brad. Miller. Lives. Yes, THAT Brad Miller who slugged 30 homers back in 2016. He’s baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack. What can Brad do for you?
Miller is 30 years old, 6′ 2″, 215 pounds, and bats from the left side. The Seattle Mariners selected him in the second round of the 2011 MLB Draft. He was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays in 2015, moved to the Milwaukee Brewers in 2018, signed with the Cleveland Indians in March of 2019, was waived a month later, picked up by the New York Yankees, then traded to the Philadelphia Phillies in June. Before the start of this season, the St. Louis Cardinals signed him to a one-year deal. As the boys and girls be saying in high school, he been around.
Throughout his minor league career, Miller was a high walk, low strikeout batter who hit for an elevated average and offered a little speed on the basepaths. Mariah Carey wouldn’t be singing…and then a hero came along….but at least the stat line wasn’t littered with zeroes. Once he got to the majors, the walk rate went down, the strikeout rate ticked up, and the average cratered from the mid-.300s to the low-to-mid .200s. By his third year in the league, he finished with 11 homers and 13 stolen bases in 497 plate appearances.
Then the trade to the Rays happened. And Kaplow! 30 home runs! He started pulling the ball more and swinging for the fences. The walk rate went down, strikeout rate went up, and the ISO went over .200 for the first time in his big league career.
Unfortunately, injuries derailed his career. An abdomen injury in 2017 and microfracture and hip labrum surgery in 2018. He bounced around, still displaying his pop, but was never able to find a home. Until the Rona-infested 2020 season brought about the universal DH.
Miller’s first appearance for the Cardinals was on August 15th. He’s played 25 games and accrued 98 plate appearances. Over the past 14 games, he’s been entrenched as the cleanup hitter and DH.
His season numbers are: .291/.418/.570 slash with 5 HR, 14 R, 20 RBI, and 1 SB with a 17.3% walk rate, 21.4% strikeout rate, .278 ISO, and .333 BABIP.
The BABIP will probably come down to the .300 area, so a batting average in the .250-.260 range should be expected. As documented above, the power isn’t surprising. I am curious about the plate discipline, though. The walk rate is a career high while the strikeout rate would be the best since his Mariners days. It’s a small sample size of 25 games, so let’s dig into some numbers to see if they are sustainable.
The line drive rate of 27.1% is a career high. He’s also hiting fewer ground balls and fly balls. The chase rate is under 30%, while the swinging strike rate is at 10.3%, the lowest rate since 2014. What stands out to me are the swing percentages. In the strike zone, Miller is swinging at 59.1% of pitches. In general, that number is at 39.8%. Those numbers had routinely been in the 70% and 45% ranges respectively.
A wiser, older, more patient Miller. Hmmmm. Me likey likey. He’s waiting for his pitch and smashing it when he gets it. Look at these Statcast percentile rankings: 80th in exit velocity, 89th in hard hit %, 90th in xwOBA, 95th in xBA, 96th in xSLG, and 94th in barrel %. Whoa. And he’s doing most of his damage against fastballs, a pitch he’s struggled with over the years. Miller has seen 216 fastballs and he has a .325 BA and .800 SLG with all five of his home runs. Last season, he saw 422 fastballs and hit five homers with a .230 BA and .420 SLG. In 2018, 551 fastballs, four home runs with a .249 BA and .419 SLG. You get the picture.
Baseball is a crazy sport, as one little thing can change the timing, confidence, or juju of a player. At the same time, heaters can last for much longer than expected. Can Miller start getting unlucky? Sure. Can his newfound patience and discipline disappear like the stock market gains from the past few months? Sure. But he’s proven that he can hit for power, is hitting in the meat of the batting order, and doesn’t have to worry about playing in the field. He can purely focus on hitting and maintaining his zen-like state. TREASURE
