Don’t look now but the fantasy baseball playoffs are just around the corner. Your trade deadline has likely passed and you have about a week or two left to get into that coveted playoff position in head-to-head league.
This week’s list is focused on some players who miiiiiight just be available in your standard 12-team leagues that you can add. The fallers are certainly players who were drafted or added and who need to find a home on your bench (at minimum) for the stretch run.
With that in mind, here are six players whose fantasy values I am watching closely based on injuries, their recent play, and team context.
Risers
Zach Gelof, 2B, Oakland Athletics
If you had Zach Gelof on your list of top fantasy second-half performers as we entered the All-Star break, please tell me who you are. I am willing to pay good money to be the exclusive recipient of your clairvoyance and fantasy expertise. Gelof, a second-round pick in 2021, has been simply fantastic for the Oakland Athletics since his promotion 34 games ago.
In that time, he is slashing .305/.373/.617 with nine homers, eight stolen bases, and 23 runs. I didn’t realize the A’s had scored 23 runs all season. At just 23 years old, if Gelof can continue to play at even 80% of these elite levels, he will be the second baseman of the Oakland/Las Vegas baseball team for 10 years. Or at least until his first contract is due and the A’s trade him for 42 prospects. The BABIP is not too lucky (.366), the strikeout rate is manageable (26%), and he even has some room to grow in the flyball department (37%).
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers
Spencer Torkelson is your traditional post-hype sleeper who came up with a lot of fanfare during a season, flopped, and then everyone forgot about him in the next draft season. Well, it may have taken Torkelson a season and a half, but the power potential the Tigers invested in with the first overall pick in the 2020 draft is finally starting to pay off. After another slow start to the 2023 season, Torkselson has simply caught fire as we head to the finish line of this fantasy year.
His August is turning out to be one of those legendary months that a young player only dreams about. He is slashing .282/.393/.690 with eight bombs and five doubles. The walk rate and patience at the plate is clearly correlated to the power outburst this month (he only had 15 homers in April-July). Torkelson is seventh in the majors in wRC+ and sixth in slugging percentage since August began.
For a player who was taken at an ADP of 300 in offseason drafts, patient fantasy managers are getting nothing but profit if they held on this long.
Tanner Bibee, SP, Cleveland Guardians
Over the last 30 days, it would be hard to find a better pitcher who is not universally rostered than Tanner Bibee. In that time, he has pitched 30 inning to the tune of three wins, 27 strikeouts, a 2.93 ERA, and a 1.24 WHIP. The Cleveland offense is absolutely abysmal, but Bibee cares not for that. Even as a rookie, Bibee has not allowed more than three earned runs in a start since June 13th. His ERA fell a full run since that June start and he cracks the top-ten best ERAs since the All-Star break now.
But what is perhaps the best part about the rookie Bibee, who has thrown 113 innings, 40 more than any other professional season? Management has not set any specific innings limit on Bibee. They will continue to run him out there as the Guardians try to scratch and claw their way to the AL Central crown. Tanner Bibee long since passed the threshold where clubs who were not contending would have started limiting him, but Cleveland is going to do all they can to try and make up the five-game deficit they have in front of them.
Fallers
Francisco Alvarez, C, New York Mets
Fransico Alvarez was the new hotness among catchers for the better part of two months earlier this summer. But this month he has been much more icy-cold blech than scorching hot hitter. Since August 2, Alvarez is hitting .135/.250/.154 with zero home runs, two RBI, and one strikeout every five plate appearances. His .404 OPS for the month is lower than 23 different players’ on-base percentages for August.
Truly, Alvarez is just going the same way the Mets are. The offense has been mired in a slump since August began and now Alvarez is getting more and more days off as the Mets have fallen seven games out of the last National League Wild Card slot. He has started just five of the Mets’ last eight games and he hasn’t played as the designated hitter since the end of July. Alvarez, at just 21 years old, is clearly in the Mets’ future and in our futures as a solid fantasy player. But he might have hit the rookie wall this season after more than 350 professional plate appearances.
Matt Chapman, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
What if I told you that Matt Chapman, the player who was the best hitter in the world during March and April, has zero homers, RBI, or stolen bases over the last two weeks? But it’s OK because he is offsetting that with a robust .152 batting average. This guy has fallen off about as steep a cliff as you can find from the beginning of the season until now, and the Blue Jays are running out of time for him to fix it for one last playoff push.
For Chapman, it’s been all about making hard contact. In March and April, Chapman had 56.2% hard hit rate. He was squaring up on everything, seeing a lot of hittable pitches, and barreling the ball all over the place. In August, that hard hit rate has tumbled down to just 25%. Even though he has a season-high 55% flyball rate in August, it hasn’t mattered one bit because every flyball he generates is just some lazy can of corn for an outfielder. Chapman has one home run in all of August and 26 fewer hits than he did in April of this season.
It’s time for Chapman to be on benches until he can get this prolonged slump figured out.
Will Smith, RP, Texas Rangers
“Now, this is a story all about how
My job got flipped-turned upside down
And I’d like to take a minute
Just sit right there
I’ll tell you how a five-game lead in the West disappeared in thin air.
In August I was pitching lots and lots of days
On the mound in the ninth is usually where I got paid.
Chillin’ out, maxin’, relaxin’, all cool
And all a sudden teams caught me actin’ a fool
When a couple of days that just didn’t look good
Turned into disaster, “what’s wrong under the hood?”
I give up 9 runs in two weeks and my manger got scared
He said, “You’re movin’ to middle relief until you can come clear the air”*
*To my knowledge, no one actually rapped this and I don’t think Will Smith has yet to lose his job. But he sucks in August with an 11.05 ERA and less than a strikeout per inning. After blowing the Tuesday night game against Arizona, that might be the final straw for Will Smith for a while.
