Without a doubt, the greatest movie ever made is Martin Scorsese’s Gangs of New York. One of my favorite scenes is when Jenny (Cameron Diaz) ventures into the rich part of down to rob the affluent blind while dressed as a maid — a practice referred to as being a “turtle dove” in the film. As she pickpockets a flirtatious man’s wallet before getting off at her stop, he begins to get forward with her, asking if he may speak but trying to not be too ambitious with his remarks.
JENNY: I might like, sir. But I can’t say now.
MAN: Why?
JENNY: Because this is my stop.
MAN: May I walk with you a little, then?
JENNY (firmly): That — would be too bold.
At that point, Jenny exits and proceeds to rob countless New York City mansions blind. Absolutely classic. Now, think of today’s post the same way. We are going to be seriously bold, but we won’t be breaking bread with strangers. This is our Opening Day. Our chance to be the turtle dove and rob our leagues like none other. Be daring, but on your own accord. As long as no one recognizes you or gets wind of your plan, we’re in the clear. Luckily, the five players we’ll break down with bold predictions are former college starts turned MLB youngsters still waiting to make a name for themselves in The Show. Many are sleeping on them, but not us. Not today.
Reid Detmers, LHP, Angels – We start off with predictions for the first two players I ever wrote about at Razzball, beginning with Detmers. In March of 2020, I ranked Detmers as the No. 2 college prospect in the class behind only Spencer Torkelson. Detmers is coming off a strong first full season in the bigs, pitching 6% above league average with a 3.77 ERA and 8.5 K/9 across 129 innings. All his appearances (25) were starts. I don’t think Detmers is going to make good on becoming an ace, but he certainly could become a reliable No. 2-3. If he can continue to make strides with his deuce, and I don’t mean kicking the pre-game jitters, he could be a top-35 starter this year with keepable upside. For 2023, chalk Detmers up for 13 or more wins with 180-plus strikeouts and a sub-3.75 ERA.
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Tigers – I danced around my Detmers prediction like Rumpelstiltskin at a Cub Scout retreat, but we’ll get right to what I’m predicting from Torkelson. This season, Torkelson is going to hit 30-plus home runs, 75-plus RBI, and bat at least 250. This might be the boldest of the bunch, but let’s not forget that Torkelson is the former unanimous No. 1 overall prospect for the MLB Draft and has played in just 110 MLB games. Even with his struggles, he still ranked in the top-22 percentile in average exit velocity and max exit velo last year, and in the top-39 percent in hard-hit rate. On top of that, he doesn’t chase much and had a paltry .255 BABIP in 2022.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B, White Sox – Okay, okay. Vaughn played his last college campaign in 2019, but I was covering him then and have been high on the stick ever since. In 2023, Vaughn will flourish as Chicago’s primary first baseman, hitting over .280 with 30-plus homers and over 90 runs driven in. He will finish as a top-10 first baseman and top-30 outfielder across all formats, and establish himself as a legitimate keeper in most dynasty formats heading into 2024. I graded Vaughn’s bat higher than I did Torkelson’s coming out of the college game, and the swing continued to impress me throughout Spring Training. Vaugh is in the top-18 percentile in the MLB in average exit velo and max exit velo, and top 10 percent in hard-hit rate. If he can cut down on the chases by just 5-10%, this is the profile of a truly elite hitter in the middle of a powerful lineup.
Garrett Mitchell, OF, Brewers – Mitchell was my No. 9 prospect to target in dynasty leagues back in 2020 and hit .311/.373/.459 with two homers and eight steals across a 28-game cameo last season — good for a 136 OPS+. Prorating that to a 162-game sample, Mitchell was on pace for 12 home runs and 46 stolen bases. The speed is legit, as he’s in the 99th percentile in the MLB for speed. I think there’s room for a little more in-game pop as well. For 2023, chalk Mitchell up for a 15-15 campaign with 50-plus steals and a .275 average or better. That will play in all formats, but he won’t be the most valuable Brewers rookie to grace the diamond this season…
Sal Frelick, OF, Brewers – …because that status belongs to none other than Sal Frelick. Although he will begin the season at Triple-A Nashville, Frelick is a soon-to-be five-category fantasy star. My love affair with Frelick has been well-documented since the months leading up to the 2021 MLB Draft, and his performance in the pro ranks has only brought us even closer together. Frelick advanced from high-A all the way to Triple-A last year, hitting a combined .331/.403/.480 with 11 homers, six triples, 28 doubles, and 24 steals. He struck out in 11.3% of plate appearances while walking at a 9.3% clip. Then this spring, he slashed .385/.385/.423 with one double and three steals before being demoted. Frelick should be rostered in all dynasty formats and he starred on your watch list in even shallower redraft formats. Personally, I think Frelick forces his way onto the Brewers rosters by May and finds a way to hit 18-plus homers and swipe 25-plus bags in a partial season. It’s crazy, but that’s the Hobbsian way.
That’s all for this week, Razzball fam! As always, I’m happy to take this conversation into the comments section or on Twitter, where you can find me @WorldOfHobbs.
