Earlier this week I was talking to a good friend about a roster quandary leading into the second month of the season. The discussion was focused on player evaluation and rest of season expectations for hitters. Being the astute fantasy baseball analyst that I am, I realized the time has come to peel back the metaphorical onion on how the Top 100 hitter list is evaluated and each hitter profiled. For today’s article, we will walk through two different hitters with many different starts to the 2021 season as we illustrate the tricks, the tools, and ultimately the madness that is the hitter evaluations powering the Top 100 hitters for the 2021 fantasy baseball season.
Joining us on the journey will be the blind resumes of two players in the NL East division:
Player A: 9/3/13/.189/0 (25 Games)
Player B: 5/2/6/.371/0 (12 Games)
In walking through these mystery men, we will break down the very subjective and at times entirely irrational formula and tools that drive these evaluations. To start, we will outline the core elements of any player evaluation:
- Track Record – As all human resource handbooks ever tell us, past performance is the best predictor of future performance. Looking at how a player has previously performed and is now performing is clearly a huge driver in our fantasy game.
- Current Hitter Profile – The question with any track record is how much it should be trusted to predict that future performance. This is where we dive into the underlying data to see what is shifting and changing for the current season.
- Scouting – Sometimes there is nothing more valuable than the scout that catches a change in approach or a nagging injury that we must build into our assessment or general gut feel.
So how do these tools help us understand the mystery men? Let us dig into Player A: Marcell Ozuna and Player B: J.D. Davis.
Track Record
- Ozuna – Dating back to 2016, Marcell has been a reliable source of power and counting stats. While his average has been a bit predictable, it has oscillated between average and plus. When investing in Ozuna, nobody is expecting speed despite a 12-steal season in 2019 for the Cardinals. 2021 has been a struggle for Ozuna so far, but I doubt we are seeing a true drop-off in his age 30 season.
- Davis – Now in his age 28 season, Davis has produced exactly one season of fantasy relevance in 2019 driven by a level of good fortune. So far in 2021, Davis has missed about half of his games after a hit by pitch but when playing has delivered solid production. With this limited and arguably pedestrian track record, the surface level suggests little to be excited about with the hot start to 2021.
Current Hitter Profile
- Ozuna – Looking at the underlying statistics, one could argue Ozuna has taken a step back with struggles in hard-hit rate, K rate, and a slight dip in exit velocity. Perusing his league ranks on Baseball Savant it becomes clearer that he is struggling, but if we dig deeper, we can see his overall plate discipline (chase rates, swing rates, and contact rates) have all remained consistent across the last few years. His approach hasn’t changed noticeably early on in 2021 despite the results.
- Davis – J.D. currently has an xBA of .353 landing in the top 2% of the league. Yes, it is a small sample size but he has been barreling everything. With numbers like below, you would think we are talking about J.D. Martinez and not the Davis version. So, what has changed? For one thing, J.D. Davis has averaged over 50% of his contact as groundballs across his career, but that has shifted to the low 30s in 2021 while he is pulling the ball more than ever. If that does not sound like launch angle cool-aid, I don’t know what does. The sample size is small, so this is a situation to monitor.
Scouting
- Ozuna – Reading from the local beat writers, the story has consistently been that Ozuna has struggled to find his footing early in 2021, especially against lefties, after the oddity that was 2020. However, in the past week, the contact has been louder and showing signs of awakening.
- Davis – This is where the concern could be for Davis. While he has recovered from his early-season injury and hit the ball better than expected, his glove has not been a bright spot for the Mets. As a result, Davis has sat and been rumored to lose late-game at-bats due to defensive replacements.
As we dig through, signs are generally pointing up for both players. Marcell Ozuna’s long-term success tells us that he will turn things around as we recognize his approach has not substantially changed. There is a level of trust in the talent and the scouting that says he is pressing a bit. J.D. Davis on the other hand has a rather lackluster track record, but a noticeable change in his underlying profile points out some potential for those looking to capitalize. He will be squarely in the watch category as he tries to maintain a change in approach forcing the Mets to keep him in the lineup.
Thank you for joining for this edition of The Method and The Madness, now you have the keys to the kingdom and the rest of the season. Enjoy!
