Something dawned on me the other day while partaking in the annual CBS Expert Auction League run by Scott White (which I’ll be recapping later in the week), and it’s this: Evan Longoria is readily available for the taking this year. This was also confirmed by the fact that I’ve netted him in several RCLs (you can still join a league here!) pretty late as well, and really, the only reason that I ran into him at all is because I was looking for Chase Headley for my eventual bottom-feeding phase of the draft. How Longoria has ruined everything that I know and love! I should admit, Fantasy Baseball has probably moved behind Fantasy Football when it comes to my priorities, and seeing as there is only so much real estate in my head, it could also be fair to say that I haven’t kept myself up to speed with a lot of the everyday minutiae of Major League Baseball. So in the drafts where I was able to net Longoria pretty late, each time I would glance at his stat page and try to figure out what was so wrong with him before selecting him. And, spoiler-alert! I couldn’t really find anything glaring. No injury, no erosion of skills, etc. Obviously, there isn’t much that can glare back at you in a window of a minute-and-a-half (in this case, with several drafts, multiple minute-and-a-halves, which, coincidentally, is how I also describe my love-making) from a player page, so I wanted to take this journey of discovery and figure out exactly why Evan Longoria has fallen out of favor, and quite possibly find some kind of redeeming quality that confirms my value-pick will actually bring some sort of “value”. Or I’ll just find out that I totally effed all of my teams by drafting a dud. What an adventure! (In other words, my Alka Seltzer is on standby…)
Looking over Evan Longoria (much in the way I would look over your mother), something becomes abundantly clear… nothing has really changed in his hitting profile the past two seasons. In 2015, he was essentially the same player he was in 2014. But, we should note, that he was not the same player in 2014 that he was in 2013 when he hit 30+ homers and provided a healthy OBP of .343. It’s not like this sort of change in his hitting profile was a surprise though, as back in 2009, he also hit 30+ homers and followed that up with a 22-home-run year. In fact, back in 2014 when I ranked the top-100 Keepers for that season and beyond, here’s what I said about Longoria at the time:
Longoria is always hard to rank for me, because the ingredients are there for an elite multi-category producer. But, he seems to just kinda pick-and-choose his moments from year-to-year. One year, he’ll hit .290 with 20 home runs, then hit .270 with 30 home runs the next. Or have an elite hamstring injury. But he’s still in his prime and you’d be hard pressed to find a player closer to a complete package at the hot corner.
Seems to be an apt description. And while we didn’t know exactly what we were going to get back in 2015, many drafted hoping for the best (yet realistically expecting something pretty good), but we ended up receiving something unremarkably solid. I could twist that into a metaphor for the human digestive system, but I’d like to keep this focused on Longoria and your mother. And in regards to that, this exact sentiment was confirmed by Grey himself when he ranked his third basemen:
All of the guys in this tier burned me recently. Most of them as recent as last year. Or fecescent, as recent should be called for them. For those saying Longoria has a chance to get back the power that he lost last year with his 21 homers, remind them it wasn’t even last year. In 2014, he only hit 22 homers too. Screw this doode in the screw-hole.
I think despite the fluctuations in his counting stats for his entire career, it’s hard to support the idea that Longoria was actually an elite player that I likened him to be in my blurb so long ago, but I think it’s fair to say that he flirted with that nomenclature from time to time. Unfortunately, that’s no longer the case, as in 2016, he’s turned into, I’d say, just a “guy” rather than a top-five player at his position. And as Grey touched upon, perhaps a major part of his devaluation comes from the fact that he was drafted as a top-five corner last year and ended up getting out-produced by the likes of Matt Carpenter and Kyle Seager. That’s quite the fall from grace, being drafted as the 39th overall pick (on average) and providing fringe top-10 production in terms of the third base position. And it shows, as his average draft position is around 115 at the moment.
Like all things in fantasy, change is a constant force that chips away at our set notions… and third base has had a lot of changes the past five years. While you can always depend on there being a dearth of talent at the catching or middle infield positions in terms of fantasy production, the hot corner has gone through different phases. Case in point, your top-five third basemen last season produced an average wRC+ 137.4. Back in 2013? 146.8. And in 2010? 143.0. The coming and going of Jose Bautista and Miguel Cabrera at third base had something to do with that. Ryan Zimmerman, when one of his body parts didn’t actually explode that one time, had something to do with that too. And even Evan Longoria had something to do with those numbers. Fluctuations are part of the game, sure, but it’s at least a glimpse into the fact that third base has had a lot of interchangeable parts this past half-decade. So it’s interesting that this year, the position is seeing a sort of “yeah, I know I have to fill you, but I don’t really want to fill you with a bunch of these players that aren’t Josh Donaldson” mentality. And I guess the whole point of this is to wonder, why not Evan Longoria?
| Period | GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | HR/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 0.96 | 20.4% | 39.0% | 40.6% | 10.8% |
| 2015 | 0.96 | 20.6% | 39.0% | 40.4% | 10.8% |
| Career | 0.90 | 19.7% | 38.1% | 42.2% | 14.8% |
As briefly mentioned earlier, there has been little change in his batting profile. GB/FB rate? The past two years, exactly the same, and in line with his career norms. Same with his LD%, GB%, and FB%. His HR/FB rate? 10.8% in 2014 and 2015. How about his plate discipline?
| Period | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | Contact% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 30.7% | 65.2% | 47.8% | 77.4% |
| 2015 | 31.6% | 64.4% | 47.3% | 78.3% |
| Career | 27.6% | 61.7% | 44.3% | 77.6% |
Same exact thing, his O-Swing%, Z-Swing%, Contact%, all in line with his career averages and stable the past two years. In fact, despite his fluctuations as a player throughout his career, it seems at the age of 30, he’s finally settled as a batter who will provide average to slightly-above average numbers across the board (sans steals), and you’d be hard-pressed to prove that any change, for better or worse, will occur this upcoming season. (In fact, based on his HR/FB rate, there might actually be room for regression in his profile, allowing for more power, but this sentiment is probably too optimistic.) He’s had a few injury-plagued years, sure, but has shown amazing durability the past three seasons, appearing in 160-162-160 games, respectively. And so, we should assume, barring Darwin’s theory, that Longoria is a good bet to repeat what he’s done the past two seasons, and that’s provide a .260ish-.270ish average, 20ish-plus home runs, and respectable run and RBI totals. While there’s a lot of “ish” involved here, these numbers are pretty solid to stick into your one third baseman slot (YMMV depending on format).
Listen, I get this guy is old news, and probably burned a lot of teams last year, but you’ll have to pick and choose where to target value in your drafts. It can’t be all Mike Trout’s and Bryce Harper’s on your team, and so if you decide that there are savings to be had at this position, Evan Longoria seems like a perfect fit. I understand the feeling to be hesitant when you’ve already gotten burned by a player, I mean, I do have a bunch of ex’s, but at this point and time, the value here is just too good to pass up considering the state of the position. After the top-5, there really isn’t much left. At an average auction value of around 10-12 dollars, an average ADP right outside the top-100, why not buy into that .265/20/80/80/3 while others are drafting Josh Donaldson for 40 bucks or as the fifth overall pick? We’re talking a lot of savings for just a difference of 10-15 home runs and roughly 30 runs and RBIs. Just an arbitrary thought, but just going on auction values alone, that’s 25 dollars of savings right there, which may help you upgrade from a Nelson Cruz type to a Bryce Harper type. And by itself? That savings basically equates to a Starling Marte or a George Springer.
Or even an hour of your mother’s time…
Want more of the Jay? Don’t we all folks? Don’t. We. All. Well, you, in fact, can have more. AMAZING. I know. You can find Jay enjoying his digs over at the Football side of Razz.
