May 1st is International Workers’ Day. If you lived in Europe, you would be off from work today and free to enjoy a day filled with baseball and creating rosters on Draft. Since you don’t and aren’t, I encourage you to exercise your own form of Socialist protest and read this article on company time. Max Scherzer definitely practices Socialism: all hitters get owned equally.
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Max Scherzer, SP: Early. When Mad Max is peaking this hard, you just hold on and enjoy the ride. He’s approached double-digit strikeouts in almost every game this season with a 13.15 K/9. Those K’s come in handy if you miss out on the fickle win.
Clayton Kershaw, SP: Middle. This is the second time I’ve used Kershaw in the middle tier this season, which feels really odd. It’s hard to fault anyone for being gun shy after his uninspiring performance against the Marlins. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers until proven otherwise over an extended period.
Tyson Ross, SP: Late. I’m not surprised things were rocky for him in Colorado (see what I did there). Coming off 127 pitches to start in Coors Field should be illegal. Luckily, he’s going from the worst pitchers’ park to the best in San Francisco’s AT&T Stadium. Ross has rebounded nicely this year, Coors start aside, to the tune of a 3.64 ERA.
J.D. Martinez, IF: Early. It’s a lackluster field at IF today. I don’t like J.D. as much as some of the top OFs, but value wise it’s smart to consider him at the top of your draft. J.D. is always one of the best bets to homer with the power he generates and an average exit velocity of 95.7 MPH.
Nelson Cruz, IF: Middle. Does 2 home runs in 5 at-bats do anything for you?
Carlos Correa, IF: Late. You’ll find Correa buried down the Draft projection list with a 7.9. I think he’s more reliable than that, with a .418 wOBA vs LHP.
Mike Trout, OF: Early. Don’t get cute. The best hitter in baseball gets to face the human-shaped collection of garbage that is Alex Cobb right now. Trout is the top value on the Hittertron, unsurprisingly (order Rudy’s Tools with the free trial already).
Tommy Pham, OF: Late. Make a habit of targeting James Shields and you will come out ahead. Pham is one of the catalysts in the Cardinals lineup. I’d expect plenty of production if the offense does what it should against a pitcher with a 6.07 xFIP.
Aaron Judge, OF: Late. It’s hypocritical to spend most of a post talking match-ups, then reverse course and throw in a play like Judge against Justin Verlander. When you can get talent at a discount, it can pay off, though. As impressive as Judge’s power is, his .449 OBP impresses me more. Floor with ceiling is so hard to find.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s a slight chance of rain in Minnesota that bears monitoring, but otherwise we’re in that all-too-short spring sweet spot of open windows and low utility bills.
Doing Lines in Vegas
I typically prefer aligning my betting interests with exciting outcomes, i.e., choosing an over, but at an O/U of 9, I think Texas vs. Cleveland is a good spot to fade offense and go with the under.
