If you are here reading this article you are looking for some help narrowing down your choices for tonight’s DFS slate, and that is exactly what I intend to help you do. However, choices should never be made for you in DFS – you need to understand why these suggestions are being made. Let’s start this 10 game slate by searching for some offenses that we would like to select players from. I have a few suggestions.
Regression to the mean is a math term many of us would have loved to learn in the context of DFS. Basically, many of today’s starters carry ERAs that are out of whack with their Rest of Season (ROS) projections or SIERAs (Skill Interactive ERAs). Let me list a few noteworthy ones:
Paul Blackburn has a 1.08 ERA vs. 4.09 SIERA
Marcus Stroman 2.42 ERA vs 3.94 SIERA
Fried 7.71 vs 4.56
France 7.08 vs 4.99 – FB velo down in last start
Gausman 8.16 vs 3.81
T Henry 6.87 vs 4.06
Canning 8.05 vs 4.43
Gilbert 2.33 vs 2.83
Some of the more successful pitchers can be expected to regress towards their SIERA as the season progresses while the opposite is true for pitchers who have had bad starts to the season. Logan Gilbert is worth highlighting because his awesome start is something we can continue to expect from him.
So who can we target? The Yankees stand out, because Paul Blackburn is probably going to have a very miserable start at some point soon. While he has consistently limited barrels (and limited damage in general) his .239 Babip is not likely to last. Kevin Gausman is going to have a “putting it all together” start soon. He threw 101 pitches last time out and only made it through 5 innings. His velocity has rebounded. When his split finger is working he is nearly untouchable and it is possible we will get that version of Gausman here. Of course, Gausman’s heat maps show some inconsistency in his ability to locate his pitches so he could continue to get hit hard AND he is susceptible to the SB which KC will attempt mercilessly. Finally, this season looks like a changing of the guard for Houston. Their pitching staff is letting the team down and JP France is not going to find it easy to quell the Cubs with questionable velocity (was down in his last start).
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Pablo Lopez, SP: $9,300 – Pablo Lopez has his career best SIERA (3.18) facing the White Sox. He should be categorized as one of the safest pitchers on the slate with real upside.
Logan Gilbert, SP: $9,000 – Logan Gilbert may just be that good. He has a new pitch (the cutter) and has increased his K% in a meaningful way. One might question whether Texas is the place to test whether these are true gains, but I have confidence in the data.
Miguel Amaya, C/1B: $3,000 – Disclaimer: this has to be a part of a stack. Amaya hits low in the order, but he should put plenty of balls in play vs. France. His career slug on flies is .600. If Yan Gomes plays instead, he has very similar abilities.
Vinnie P., 1B: $4,800 – I am interested in taking some shots against Kevin Gausman tonight and Vinnie P has a miniscule K rate and has been one of the most consistent punishers of the ball. He seems to be in the midst of a breakout season and I endorse him in full KC stacks or 3 man stacks.
Jackson Holliday, 2B: $3,500 – If you aren’t paying up for Altuve or Marte who are in good spots, you are likely paying down and I am calling the Jackson Holliday breakout game. Canning throws low in the zone and is somewhat one dimensional so I think Holliday will have an easier time focusing on doing damage on his pitch.
Christopher Morel, 3B: $4,200 – Morel is a boom or bust play and it’s no longer because of his high K rate which he has cut considerably this year. He hits everything hard, but also has above average pop ups and gets under the ball (a concern against a FB pitcher). Being part of the pulled fly ball revolution could lead to a big game in a friendly spot.
Gunnar Henderson, SS: $5,600 – The SS position offers a chance to hit on a “had to have it” score and Gunnar has THE best Statcast data at the position. He is in a friendly spot facing Canning (as if he needed it) and plays in a great lineup. The data I found shows that Canning is particularly good at limiting SBs which is unfortunate considering how good BAL is at running.
MJ Melendez, OF: $4,400 – If you’ve read my article you have seen my love for Melendez. He does it all: low K rate, high BB rate, hits the ball hard, and can steal a base. Can KC get to Gausman? That’s the bet you would be making here.
Daulton Varsho, OF: $3,200 – If you need to fit in a cheap one off at OF, Varsho is your man. His season long numbers don’t look great, but he has turned on a switch lately. I don’t always ride hot streaks, but Varsho talked about changes he made in the offseason to be more patient and consistent and wait for the barrels/HRs to come. He is seeing the ball well and putting good swings on it. He has moved up in the order and it’s only a matter of time before he is contributing with SBs as well. He is too cheap.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Wind is blowing out at Wrigley (straight out) at a decent clip which will not help JP France’s FB inducing ways. Otherwise no weather concerns.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Cubs-Astros game has the “Wind Blowing Out” total today. Sometimes this burns us, but if I am digging into this game for offense I kind of like the Cubs. Jordan Wicks has a good K rate and he usually only goes 5 innings. I’m not sure how much damage the Astros can really do against him whereas France looks susceptible to a blow out game.
