As the adage goes, ‘nobody wants you when you’re old’. Unless you’re a female and Grey Albright is nearby. Yo Sky, check out this smoking hot chick! *Clicks google image link*. Um, Grey? Yeah? That’s Raquel Welch. I know, right? Older the berry, the sweeter the juice, you know what I’m sayin’? *hi-pitched cackling ensues*. I get it, though, in this day and age where steroids can’t even be used to quell skin rash irritations without a 50 game suspension. We get to see athletes in their truest form: they’re human, they get tired, they get hurt, they age and their prime doesn’t last 10+ years. But as a fantasy player? EFF THAT NOISE. Bring back the greenies, baby! But I digress, the key is, ageism is a real thing at the draft table, especially for a late bloomer and in steps Steve Pearce. So what has my fantasy loins in a lather like Ann-Margret just did a cat-walk in lady’s lingerie for Grey? Well, read on. Here’s why I think Pearce is a good get for deep leagues this year for 2015 Fantasy Baseball…
As we discussed in the intro, Pearce was a bit ‘old’ to be having a breakout season last year. He’ll basically be 32 at the start of the year and is coming off his most successful season to date: 103 games with 21 HRs over 338 ABs. That HR to AB rate of 16.0952 (ok we’ll round up to 16.1) would’ve put him just behind Jose Bautista’s 15.8 and just ahead of Anthony Rizzo’s 16.4 had he met the minimum at-bat requirements. Those two finished in the top 10 in that respective stat and both finished the year with 30+ HRs. In a similar vein of thinking, Pearce’s ISO of .263 would’ve been better than both of those guys and names such as David Ortiz and even his 40 HR teammate Nelson Cruz. Those are some lofty (pun point!) names to be associated with. Now there are many who are writing off this offensive splash as a blip on the radar. I can see the argument. Guy does nothing for 7 MLB seasons and out of nowhere he figures it out at the age of 31. That’s a hard story to believe but in reality, Pearce has always had decent power as his minor league ISO numbers show. The question was how could he get it to translate to the major leagues and it looks like a batting stance tweak might have done such a thing for him and clearly he believes it helps. In looking at Pearce for 2015, I’m focused as much on his floor as I am his ceiling. His ceiling is probably 2014 so if you’re looking for pie in the sky numbers, slap 12-15 extra HRs onto his 2014 line and call it a day. If you wanna look at a reasonable floor, I tend to see a guy who – if given 500 ABs – could hit you 25 to 27 HRs while not killing you in average. Let’s say .270. Chip in 5-7 bags and he’s roughly what you got from Justin Upton last year. Tack on the fact that his walk rate has been at or over 10% the last three years and his K% – while never high – hasn’t creeped over 20% the last two years. A guy who can hit for power and is patient usually gets good results. Just ask 39 year old David Ortiz…oops, did I just say THAT out loud?!? Of course, I’m not drawing a direct comparison between these two but how many times have you said to yourself ‘I’m not drafting Ortiz, he’s done. He’s too old!’ I’ll guess at least 5 years based on how much crow residue has built up around the corners of your mouth. So if you like’um a little older, give Pearce a look over. And if you like them older than that…well, I hear Julio Franco is still available…Grey, stop humping Julio Franco’s leg…that’s a bad Grey!
Honorable Mentions
Billy Butler – Bounceback season is more than within reach for Butler who has his worst year as a full-time player last year. That said, even in his salad days, Billy is still a 15-20 HR clubber. Oh who am I kidding, there are no salads served in a country breatkfast! Plus his name recognition will most likely vault him up a few draft boards.
Christian Walker – Oddly, could become Pearce’s main opponent for PT if Steve struggles out of the gate. He’s a young power bat with plenty of potential. Main issue I see is the spike from AA to AAA strikeout rates might push him into 30%+ K rates at the majors, making it hard to consider .250 as a reasonable expectation. Maybe 2016 or 2017 but I ain’t feelin’ it this year
Brandon Moss – I’d say Moss is in the same vein as Butler But to be fair, his 2014 isn’t as bad as some would have you believe. He was pretty much the 2013 player we knew and loved minus some BABIP. The problem is, I’d say his 2014 might be a shade closer to who he really is than his 2013 was. Low average power is nice but it has it’s price.
