The expression “cup of coffee” entered the sports vernacular when a minor league player would only be in the majors long enough to drink a cup before getting sent down. What if someone nurses their coffee for a long, long time? What size is the cup? Why can’t Starbucks just say small, medium, and large? Is it really necessary to go with Demi, Short, Tall, Grande, Venti, and Trenta? F Starbucks. Anyways, I could get into some nasty South Park ideas but I don’t want to get fired so I’ll leave it in imagination land. Fine, organizations are ruthless and toothless so they don’t care about any of that. When they feel it’s time for someone to get booted, they will do it without remorse. But if a player produces, the barista will continue topping off that cup. In today’s Bear or Bull, we will discuss a cup of Connor Joe who has produced an impressive line in 196 plate appearances this season: .280/.367/.470 with a .190 ISO, 11.2% walk rate, and 19.9% strikeout rate. He has eight home runs, 21 runs, and 34 RBI. As a result, he’s been added in 7% of ESPN leagues and is rostered on 22.2% of teams. In NFBC leagues, he’s rostered on 98% of teams. Will this cup of Joe continue getting refilled?
Joe is 29 years old, 6-foot, 205 pounds, bats from the right side, and plays both first base and outfield.
He was drafted by the Pirates in the first round of the 2014 MLB draft. It’s been quite the journey since then. He was traded to the Braves in 2017, to the Dodgers a month later, scooped up by the Reds in the 2018 Rule 5 draft, traded again to the Giants two years later, returned to the Dodgers a month later after clearing waivers, was diagnosed with testicular cancer and opted out of the 2020 season, then latched on with the Rockies via a minor league contract in November of 2020. Whew. I need a cigarette.
Throughout his minor league career, he always exhibited excellent plate discipline. The walk rate was usually above 10% while the strikeout rate did fluctuate from the teens to thirties. The power didn’t manifest until he came to the Dodgers in 2018. Since then, the ISO has been in the .200 range. In Triple-A this season, Joe slashed .311/.407/.656 with a .344 ISO, 13.9% walk rate, and 20.4% strikeout rate in 108 plate appearances.
In early August, manager Bud Black said, “We saw it in spring training. We saw a guy who has a good approach and controls the strike zone…The bat speed is Major League-quality. He uses the whole field. He will take his walks. I like that the power is showing up.”
When looking at the numbers, the BABIP is .315 so the nice slash hasn’t been fueled by tons of luck. The GB/FB is 0.86 while the line drive rate is 28%. He’s pulling the ball 41.7% of the time but also going oppo 30.3%.
The Statcast numbers are impressive as the max exit velocity is 113.3 mph. The launch angle is 14.5 degrees and he’s barreling 9.8% of the pitches.
Y’all know I’m about the plate discipline numbers and….they look fantastic. 22.8% chase rate and 8.8% swinging-strike rate are magnifique. The contact rate in the strike zone is 87.9% while the overall contact rate is 79.1%.
As for splits, he is better against lefties than righties and has more power against them. That said, he’s still good against righties.
| BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs L | 11.9 | 15.3 | .306 | .390 | .551 | .245 |
| vs R | 10.9 | 21.9 | .269 | .358 | .437 | .168 |
As with most Rockies hitters, he is much better at home than on the road.
| BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 12.7 | 19 | .343 | .430 | .642 | .299 |
| Away | 10.3 | 20.5 | .238 | .325 | .356 | .119 |
There’s so much to like about Connor and he’s been batting leadoff for the last month.
Here’s the bad, though.
He’s received most of his playing time this year due to injuries for C.J. Cron and Raimel Tapia. When Tapia was healthy, he was batting from 6 to 8 in the order and was often only utilized as a pinch hitter. Now, Tapia returned on Monday and Connor still batted leadoff while Tapia was seventh, but is that going to continue?
Charlie Blackmon and Raimel Tapia are set in the outfield. Cron is the first baseman. Sam Hilliard is playing most days in the outfield so where does Joe fit in? Has his performance recently earned him some cache and solidified a starting role? I’m not sure and it’s something to monitor but there’s a chance that Joe becomes a utility player and slotting into the lineup to give one of the outfielders a rest and Cron a day off from time to time. In addition, Tapia could reclaim the leadoff role at some point.
I’d add if he’s available but know that there’s some risk to the downside in terms of role and playing time.
VERDICT
