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Collegiate Corner: This Ain’t A Skenes

April 13, 2023 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects |

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As we reach the college season’s midpoint, I got to wondering: after you drink 50% of your ballpark beer, is it half-empty or half-full? On one hand, it’s half-empty because we don’t want the season to end, but on the other, it’s half-full because there’s still plenty of baseball left including the highly-anticipated College World Series. Then I remember that the disgruntled concessions worker that charged me $18 for my souvenir cup only filled it up two-thirds of the way, so really the ballpark beer is 33.3% full unless you take into account the volume accounted for by the ice… and that’s how I successfully lost my entire audience before even beginning the discussion about the first overall pick for the 2023 MLB Draft. So how about this? Drink ALL of your ballpark beer, click “Please, blog, may I have some more?” and hit up the comments section with who you’d take first overall if you had the pleasure (or lack thereof) of being Mr. Ben Cherington.

The Battle for No. 1: Dylan Crews vs. Wyatt Langford – Crews appears to be widening the gap as the top position player in this year’s class, batting an absurd .510/.645/.882 with nine homers and three steals through 31 games. Langford has been nearly as terrific, but a groin injury lost him seven games as well as put a speed bump in his draft audition. Even so, Langford is hitting .380/.539/.848 with an equal nine home runs, all the while posting a 23.1% walk rate and 12.3% strikeout rate. For comparison, Crews is walking at a 22.7% clip and striking out in 11.3% of plate appearances — nearly identical numbers. I don’t think either player going No. 1 overall is a mistake, but it seems all but a given that it will be Crews as it stands today.

Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU – However, if I’m the Pittsburgh Pirates I’m taking LSU right-hander Paul Skenes. If I’m the Pittsburgh Pirates, then I’ll also ruin him within six months and my last name is a verb for something I never do. Skenes was under-ranked in my preseason top-15 because he was unproven in the SEC and hasn’t shown the highly-anticipated velo jump in game action yet. But he came out in 2023 looking like the most polished hurler in the entire draft class, consistently pumping triple digits while locating his secondary stuff with relative ease. The result has been 47 1/3 innings of 1.14 ERA ball backed by a ludicrous 17.3 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, and 0.61 WHIP. Skenes is the best college pitching prospect I’ve seen since Stephen Strasburg and should go first overall in July.

Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Florida Atlantic – You won’t hear much buzz surrounding Schanuel because he plays at Florida Atlantic of Conference USA, but he represents one of the best combinations of hit and power of any left-handed hitter in the draft. As a freshman in 2021, he hit .343/.444/.675 with 11 homers. As a sophomore, he slashed .369/.477/.658 with 16 homers. Through 33 games this year, Schanuel is batting .482/.618/.964 with 13 homers. Although he does possess above-average plate discipline, there’s a lot of swing and miss in his game, and he struggled to hit on The Cape last summer. Still, Schanuel has the offensive profile to project as an everyday first baseman/corner outfielder and should come with an attractive discount in first-year player drafts.

Jaden Woods, LHP, Georgia – After back-to-back clunkers at Auburn and Vanderbilt, Woods got back on track last weekend at home against Kentucky. MLB Pipeline’s 90th-ranked prospect for the draft held the Wildcats to three earned runs on four hits and three walks across 6 2/3 frames while striking out six. That lowered his season ERA to 5.10 with a 12.3 K/9, although he held a 2.96 ERA before being roughed up for 13 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings at Auburn and Vandy. Woods sits low-to-mid-90s with his 55-grade heater (92-95) and possesses a plus-slurve and average change. He should be a relatively early day-two pick as a high-upside collegiate southpaw.

Levi Wells, RHP, Texas State –  The 2023 campaign has not gone according to plan for Wells thus far, who would probably rather be sitting in a well than standing on a mound these days. After throwing to a 3.07 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9 in 18 games/16 starts last season, Wells has allowed 19 earned runs in 35 innings this season for a 4.89 ERA. The strikeouts are up significantly (11.6 K/9), but so are the walks (4.1 BB/9) and hits (7.8 to 8.7 H/9). Wells came into the year as a top-50 draft prospect with a chance to pitch himself into the back-end of the first round, but he’s looking more like a second or third-round pick as of late. There’s bullpen potential here, as Wells started off as a reliever at Texas Tech before developing into a four-pitch starting pitching prospect (91-96 MPH 55-FB, 78-83 plus curve, average hard slider, below average to average change) at Texas State. I’m relatively high on Wells’ arm, but he’ll need to take care of business throughout the remainder of Sun Belt play to maintain first-year player draft relevance.

Tommy Troy, INF, Stanford – On the flip side, Troy is one player who has certainly enhanced his stock since the start of the season. Through 100 at-bats, he’s slashing .420/.504/.670 with four homers, three triples, seven doubles, 11 steals, an 11.8 K%, and 13.4 BB%. What’s not to like? Troy has made just two errors all season long and profiles at second base, center field, and perhaps even a shot to stick at shortstop. He was excellent on the Cape in consecutive summers (.299/.364/.479, .310/.386/.531), so there are few questions that the tools will translate with the wood. Circle Troy’s name as a sleeper prospect for dynasty leagues and first-year player drafts this cycle.

Additional Notes

  • Some things you see every day, some things you don’t, and then some you really just never see, like hitting for the cycle and pitching a no-hitter in the same game. That’s exactly what University of Indianapolis player Brady Ware did last week, going 4-for-4 with five RBI while hitting for the cycle and pitching a seven-inning, complete-game no-hitter with 11 strikeouts against the University of Springfield. Hopefully, Brady’s parents took him to TGI Friday’s for a soda and chicken tenders after the game!
  • Just under two weeks ago, Maryland’s Matt Shaw (No. 13 college prospect) launched a 507-foot home run and this past weekend, Florida’s Jac Caglianone (2024 elig.) hit a 488-foot shot in Knoxville. Baseballs are flying out of the park in the college game this season. Great job, Rob!
  • South Carolina freshman phenom Ethan Petry is taking the sport by storm. The reigning SEC Player of the Week, Petry homered twice including a grand slam against LSU to upset the No. 1 Tigers last Thursday. On the season, he’s slashing an unearthly .449/.507/.898 with 16 jacks and 52 steaks in 33 games.

That’s all for this week, Razzball fam! As always, I’m happy to take this conversation into the comments section or on Twitter, where you can find me @WorldOfHobbs.

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