Instead of marking the end of all my relationships, we can now use it as a pun! Plus, it was either that or going to be the “who’s the greatest rapper of all time” bit, which is always a classic, but what is a joke if it’s not self-deprecating? Not to mention, while I wouldn’t want a cease and desist (see what I did there?) from Dylan Cease, perhaps someone should file an estoppel action against this season’s production versus the last? Look, I’m 100% dedicated to the title and if it takes legalese jokes, we’re going to do it. Probably no Latin terms though, that would require me actually learning something… Anyways, it’s not a terrible season, mind you. Cease has managed an average 4.38 ERA and 3 wins over the span of 14 games started, but a far cry from 2022 where he sustained a 2.20 ERA over 184 innings with a 11.10 K/9, good for 14 wins. Still just 27, there’s still another half of a season to try and recover a bit, but this also might just be who he is…
A 2014 sixth-round pick for the White Sox, the then 6’2″ right-hander was considered an excellent athlete with a good frame and size for the mound. Even then, his high leg kick combined with major hip rotation was pinpointed as a red flag, generating good power behind his pitches, but sacrificing a lot of control and feel. But at the time, his fastball was one of the best in his class based on the analysis, sitting in the mid-90s with the ability to sustain deep into games. He also had a changeup and curveball, both pedestrians compared to his heat, but enough to give him a starter’s profile. As mentioned though, his command was considered a major issue for his eventual development and was often compared to A.J. Burnett, which I actually think is pretty apt. Like Burnett, it was always a battle between thrower versus pitcher, and now in 2023, the past has certainly been prologue.
Even during his stellar 2022 campaign, Cease was able to produce a great 3.10 FIP, 0.78 HR/9, and career-low 8.4% HR/FB despite a 3.82 BB/9. And it wasn’t just a low .260 BABIP and 82.3 LOB%, it was the emergence of his slider, a pitch that had been getting better and better dating back to 2020. But as of now, the effectiveness of that pitch has pretty much evaporated. Some of it is velocity, going from 87.5 MPH on average last season to 86.4 so far in 2023, driving his SwStr% down nearly three percent. And some of it is control (surprise-surprise), with a near career high 4.14 BB/9. Both issues have caused an uptick in Contact% and batters are chasing less outside, swinging more at pitches in the zone.
Add in a higher 2023 BABIP and lower LOB%, you have today’s Dylan Cease. As I mentioned, a 4.38 ERA isn’t terrible, but they are some very large concerns moving forward. Pretty much everything across the board for Cease is trending in the wrong direction. The loss in velocity, not just from the slider, but also with his fastball, could be the ultimate catalyst, but that’s both good and bad as we could surmise it’s something that could come back with time or something that’s driven by injury or some other physical factor. But, his last three starts have been vintage Cease, 15 innings with 21 strikeouts and nine walks with just six earned runs, not enough to erase a terrible end of April and start of May, but still encouraging.
I guess the real question is; are you okay with the ups-and-downs? While I think we’re at a stage where we can safely say that he won’t return to the dominance of 2022 this year, are there going to be enough flashes and moments that remind us that a flawed power-pitcher is still pretty valuable to have, after a fashion? Unless there is an injury, which I’m leaning against based on his June starts, I think so.
It won’t be pretty, but Dylan Cease still can strike batters out, and even though the White Sox aren’t a powerhouse, there’s enough here to be of value even though the numbers show perhaps a soft ceiling present now and in the foreseeable future. So I guess my final verdict is that you can Cease if you want to, but don’t desist.
Does that even make sense?
Jay is a longtime Razzball everything who consumes an egregious amount of Makers Mark as a vehicle to gain wisdom and augment his natural glow. Living in the D.C. area, he also likes spending time visiting the local parks and feeding lettuce to any turtles he encounters, including Mitch McConnell.
