The “five tool” player (having the abilities to hit for average and power, base-running skills/speed, throwing, and fielding) is one who possesses an incredibly rare set of skills. Branch Rickey, who first coined the term in his book The American Diamond, could only name two true “five tool” players at the time – Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle. Essentially, it’s a term that refers to elite, well-rounded athletes who can do anything and everything on the baseball field. Which players would qualify as true five toolers in today’s game? Three names immediately come to mind – Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Manny Machado. Elite skills and production across the board. Andrew McCutchen is a strong candidate based on his track record, though his speed appears to be in decline. Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts, and Starling Marte might have a shortcoming or two, but they’re in the mix as well.
However, in terms of raw tools, Yasiel Puig should probably be the first player mentioned after the top three. Huge raw power. Maybe the best throwing arm in the game today. Plus speed despite his size (listed at 6-2/255). Lifetime .290 batting average. Puig’s raw skills are off the charts, and he had the early results to match. In his first month in MLB (June 2013), he managed a .436/.467/.713 triple slash line and won both the National League Rookie of the Month Award and the National League Player of the Month Award, the first time that someone had won both in their first month in the Majors. During his second season in 2014, Puig improved his walk (8.3% to 10.5%) and strikeout (22.5% to 19.4%) rates while still flashing the impressive power/speed combo (16 homers and 11 steals) and ability to hit for average (.296) that he displayed during his rookie year. After missing over half of last season due to injuries to both hamstrings and producing disappointing results when he was on the field (.255/.322/.436 BA/OBP/SLG in 79 games), it was difficult to project Puig for the 2016 season. Was he fully healthy? What could be expected from him?
Through his first 26 games in 2016, Puig’s production has been very… blah. 105 plate appearances, 12 runs scored, 3 home runs, 12 RBI, 3 steals, .247/.305/.412. Not terrible, but certainly not the breakout that many have been expecting from the talented 25 year old outfielder. Let’s take a look at his profile to see what’s been going on thus far:
• He’s taking a more aggressive approach. Puig’s 21.0% K% is basically right in line with his career average (20.8%), but his walk rate is down (5.7% BB% this season; 9.1% career) and he’s swinging at more pitches than ever before (57.0% Swing% this year; 50.9% career). He’s chasing more pitches outside of the strike zone (career high 41.4% O-Swing%) and missing at a career high rate as well (17.2% SwStr%).
• He’s hitting the ball in the air more often. Puig’s current 40.0% GB% would represent a career low, while his 42.7% FB% would be a new career high. In fact, Puig’s fly ball percentage has increased each season throughout his career. A higher FB% is generally a good thing for a young player with Puig’s raw power, but it has also led to the unfortunate side effect that…
• He leads MLB in infield fly ball percentage. Puig’s current 28.1% IFFB% represents a huge increase over his career average (10.4%). Over the previous four seasons (2012-2015), only two qualified hitters finished with an IFFB% over 20% in a single season (Jose Reyes and Billy Burns in 2015), indicating that this number is likely to stabilize somewhat over the course of the season. However, more pop-ups are not a good thing and might help to explain why…
• His average fly ball distance is the lowest of his career. Puig’s 272.4 ft average distance this season ranks 169th out of 235 qualified hitters. That number is down from the 283.35 ft mark that he posted in 2015 as well as his career high 294.25 ft mark in 2014. While he’s hitting more fly balls than ever, they haven’t been struck with the same authority as in previous seasons.
Bottom line: It’s extremely easy to fall in love with Puig’s tools. Players with his power/speed combination and athleticism don’t come around very often. The results haven’t quite matched those skills yet though. This new emphasis on hitting the ball in the air should give a slight boost to his overall power numbers, but hurt his batting average and run scoring potential in the process. Until he adopts a more disciplined approach at the plate, I’m not confident that he will take that next step forward.
Final Verdict:
